It’s a new FarrCast and the markets are swinging back and forth. Volatility is with us and it can be frightening, but Michael reminds us – sell high, buy low. It’s not a time to be chasing markets up then selling as we hit turbulence.
Dan Mahaffee gives us insight into what is happening in Beijing as the trade war escalates. China’s historical vision tell them to avoid evening appearing to kowtow to the West and the US, and they feel they have an advantage not dealing with a domestic election cycle. The hardliners are in the ascendency and Dan doesn’t see any climb down soon. Stepping back, Dan points out that China, for all of their authoritarian issue and atrocious human rights record is a growing and vibrant country. The US cannot contain China -- How do we compete?
For the world segment, Michael welcomes Martin Barnes, Chief Economist for BCA Research. What does trade war mean for the economy? There aren’t many precedents, but the 1930s are one, and it didn’t go well. Martin says he doesn’t see anything that dire, but it’s definitely bad news for the economy. Michael and Martin move the discussion on to the Federal Reserve and the pitfalls of monetary policy – and what they are getting right (so far.) Monetary policy is a blunt instrument, and it’s inevitable the Fed will eventually zig when they should have zagged. But for all of the trade uncertainty, as long as the Fed stays on the sidelines, Martin is constructive on the markets for the rest of the year.