50 min
Bear Market Rally or New Bull? |The Fed Talks Tough but Does Nothing | PE Like its 1995 Broken Pie Chart
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- Investing
Jay Pestrichelli is back with Derek Moore to discuss Jay Powell’s tough talking but no action Fed. Plus, is this a repeat of the 1994-1995 forward PE expansion bull market? Also, they go back to the 200-2002 bear market where the Nasdaq 100 had 7 different 20% bear market rallies and the S&P 500 had its own share. Is this different? Finally, Jay and Derek look at instances where the S&P 500 made new highs with only 5% of the companies also making 52-week highs and the subsequent future historical returns. Off course some recommendations and they read a listener note.
Why is 20% of the low a new bull market suddenly?
New bull market or another bear market rally?
The 1994-95 blueprint of markets rallying with forward PE expansion with rate hikes.
Jay Powell and the Fed claim they are doing 2 more rate hikes?
Tough talk by the Fed but they sit on their hands at the meeting.
Why the Fed had nothing to do with taming inflation.
PE multiple expansion responsible for the market rally.
Fed may keep rates higher for longer.
Does the Fed and inflation even matter anymore?
Reviewing the 2000-2002 many failed greater than 20% bear market rallies
Quantity theory of money PQ = MV
The velocity of money and why quantitative easing doesn’t always cause inflation
Inflation dropping (caused by supply chain problems and government stimulus) not the Fed
Mentioned in this Episode:
BLS info showing auto dealership markups go way up https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2023/article/automotive-dealerships-markups.htm
Cheaper to Rent than Buy? | Beneish-M Score Near Market Highs? | Top 10 Market Cap Companies by Decade | VIX Level Makes Multiyear Low https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cheaper-to-rent-than-buy-beneish-m-score-near-market/id1432836154?i=1000615625441
AI Driving Market Returns? | Size of Top 2 S&P 500 Stocks Now 15%? | Relative Performance of Tech vs S&P 500 Index at Extreme Levels https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ai-driving-market-returns-size-of-top-2-s-p-500/id1432836154?i=1000613885329
AI Is the New Crypto & Blockchain Post Nvidia Earnings | Reach for Long Duration Bonds | More Fed Rate Increases Coming? | 7% Treasury Bills? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ai-is-the-new-crypto-blockchain-post-nvidia-earnings/id1432836154?i=1000614778019
Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr
Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com
Jay Pestrichelli is back with Derek Moore to discuss Jay Powell’s tough talking but no action Fed. Plus, is this a repeat of the 1994-1995 forward PE expansion bull market? Also, they go back to the 200-2002 bear market where the Nasdaq 100 had 7 different 20% bear market rallies and the S&P 500 had its own share. Is this different? Finally, Jay and Derek look at instances where the S&P 500 made new highs with only 5% of the companies also making 52-week highs and the subsequent future historical returns. Off course some recommendations and they read a listener note.
Why is 20% of the low a new bull market suddenly?
New bull market or another bear market rally?
The 1994-95 blueprint of markets rallying with forward PE expansion with rate hikes.
Jay Powell and the Fed claim they are doing 2 more rate hikes?
Tough talk by the Fed but they sit on their hands at the meeting.
Why the Fed had nothing to do with taming inflation.
PE multiple expansion responsible for the market rally.
Fed may keep rates higher for longer.
Does the Fed and inflation even matter anymore?
Reviewing the 2000-2002 many failed greater than 20% bear market rallies
Quantity theory of money PQ = MV
The velocity of money and why quantitative easing doesn’t always cause inflation
Inflation dropping (caused by supply chain problems and government stimulus) not the Fed
Mentioned in this Episode:
BLS info showing auto dealership markups go way up https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2023/article/automotive-dealerships-markups.htm
Cheaper to Rent than Buy? | Beneish-M Score Near Market Highs? | Top 10 Market Cap Companies by Decade | VIX Level Makes Multiyear Low https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cheaper-to-rent-than-buy-beneish-m-score-near-market/id1432836154?i=1000615625441
AI Driving Market Returns? | Size of Top 2 S&P 500 Stocks Now 15%? | Relative Performance of Tech vs S&P 500 Index at Extreme Levels https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ai-driving-market-returns-size-of-top-2-s-p-500/id1432836154?i=1000613885329
AI Is the New Crypto & Blockchain Post Nvidia Earnings | Reach for Long Duration Bonds | More Fed Rate Increases Coming? | 7% Treasury Bills? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ai-is-the-new-crypto-blockchain-post-nvidia-earnings/id1432836154?i=1000614778019
Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr
Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com
50 min