Beyond the Hype: The Reality of Precision-Strike Weapons in Ukraine

Cameron Tracy joins to discuss his TNSR article on "technological surprise" and "normalization through use" in the Russo-Ukrainian war. He explains how forecasting about warfare often overweights extreme scenarios and is reinforced by professional and organizational incentives, producing hype with little accountability. We discuss drones, Russia's failure to gain air superiority, and four case studies: hypersonic-associated missiles (Kinzhal, Tsirkon) intercepted by Patriot systems, the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile's quick normalization after alarmist reactions, and Russia's effective UMPK glide bomb kits.

Hosts: Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Ryan Vest

Producer: Jordan Morning