In this month’s episode I’ll provide a brief outlook for commodity markets from our strategy desk. Oil was the clear winner over the past three months, which accounted for most of the gains in the broad commodity index. Most price signals have extended into overbought territory, although pullbacks could be temporary over the next quarter. Elsewhere, metals have stabilized and oversold signals could present buying opportunities.
Over the short-term commodity prices should trade at a premium given supply risk and geopolitical issues. Long-term (two-three years), the effects of slowing economic growth as a result of tighter monetary policy and inflation could weigh on commodity prices, especially as recession signals advance.