56 min
Debt Ceiling Risk | Recession Signals | 10/3 Yield Curve Inversion Broken Pie Chart
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- Investing
Derek Moore and ZEGA CEO Jay Pestrichelli are back again to discuss Cam Harvey’s 10/3 Yield Curve Inversion and its track record. What it has meant and can mean going forward. Looking at the Real Retail Sales importance for predicting recessions. What various Fed members and Jamie Dimon say about where interest rates are going. Plus, what is going on with wages and how real wage growth may or may not give the Fed cover to raise more. Then, they discuss banks going to the discount window and the new Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) to borrow money. Finally, what do credit card interest rates and increased usage tell us about the health of the consumer, and why is no one talking about the upcoming debt ceiling deadline?
What is the 10-year 3-month yield curve inversion?
Cam Harvey and the inception of the 10/3 yield curve as a predictor
How often has the 10/3 yield curve inversion predicted recessions?
Does the steepness of the yield curve say anything about the depth of recessions?
Debating whether the 10/3 inversion in 2019 predicted the 2020 recession?
Average time from yield curve inversion to the declaration of recessions
Cam Harvey interview saying this time might be different.
How real retail sales peaked back in March of 2021
Nominal retail sales disappointed while year over year hit lowest level in a while.
What is the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP)?
Banks accessing the Fed’s discount window plus the BTFP
Consumer credit usage makes a new high while credit card interest rates reach new high
Jamie Dimon comments on higher rates for longer and implications
Real wage growth has been negative for the last 2 years
What is the debt ceiling and what does it mean for the US Treasury
US Treasury keeps a “checking” account at the Fed
Mentioned in this Episode:
Atlantic article from 2011 explaining potential option to get around debt ceiling by US Treasury getting overdraft protection from the Fed https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/07/the-us-government-cannot-ever-run-out-of-money/242622/
Can the Fed Fail? Q1 Winners Surprise the Crowd podcast https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/can-the-fed-fail-q1-winners-surprise-the-crowd/id1432836154?i=1000608060319
One Thing No One Ever Talks About within the S&P 500 Index | FANG Stocks 1 Rest of Market 0 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/one-thing-no-one-ever-talks-about-within-the-s-p-500/id1432836154?i=1000607742682
Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr
Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com
Derek Moore and ZEGA CEO Jay Pestrichelli are back again to discuss Cam Harvey’s 10/3 Yield Curve Inversion and its track record. What it has meant and can mean going forward. Looking at the Real Retail Sales importance for predicting recessions. What various Fed members and Jamie Dimon say about where interest rates are going. Plus, what is going on with wages and how real wage growth may or may not give the Fed cover to raise more. Then, they discuss banks going to the discount window and the new Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) to borrow money. Finally, what do credit card interest rates and increased usage tell us about the health of the consumer, and why is no one talking about the upcoming debt ceiling deadline?
What is the 10-year 3-month yield curve inversion?
Cam Harvey and the inception of the 10/3 yield curve as a predictor
How often has the 10/3 yield curve inversion predicted recessions?
Does the steepness of the yield curve say anything about the depth of recessions?
Debating whether the 10/3 inversion in 2019 predicted the 2020 recession?
Average time from yield curve inversion to the declaration of recessions
Cam Harvey interview saying this time might be different.
How real retail sales peaked back in March of 2021
Nominal retail sales disappointed while year over year hit lowest level in a while.
What is the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP)?
Banks accessing the Fed’s discount window plus the BTFP
Consumer credit usage makes a new high while credit card interest rates reach new high
Jamie Dimon comments on higher rates for longer and implications
Real wage growth has been negative for the last 2 years
What is the debt ceiling and what does it mean for the US Treasury
US Treasury keeps a “checking” account at the Fed
Mentioned in this Episode:
Atlantic article from 2011 explaining potential option to get around debt ceiling by US Treasury getting overdraft protection from the Fed https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/07/the-us-government-cannot-ever-run-out-of-money/242622/
Can the Fed Fail? Q1 Winners Surprise the Crowd podcast https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/can-the-fed-fail-q1-winners-surprise-the-crowd/id1432836154?i=1000608060319
One Thing No One Ever Talks About within the S&P 500 Index | FANG Stocks 1 Rest of Market 0 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/one-thing-no-one-ever-talks-about-within-the-s-p-500/id1432836154?i=1000607742682
Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr
Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com
56 min