Demography Unplugged with Neil Howe Hedgeye Risk Management

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we replay a recent interview I did with Chuck Todd, who invited me on his podcast “The Chuck ToddCast from Meet the Press.” We had a great conversation and discussed Millennials' and other generations' impact on politics. Trust me, this was a fun interview. 
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The content featured here is a small part of Hedgeye’s Demography Unplugged, a game-changing market intelligence product brought to you by historian, demographer and best-selling author Neil Howe. Visit us to find out more and subscribe.

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we devote most of our conversation to China's decennial census. The results were mysteriously delayed, which had many insiders suspecting a dreaded population dip. But recently released provisional data show a slight population increase to 1.41 billion people. Could this be? I go behind all the ins and outs of how China counts its population, and provide theories on what the "true" count may be.

Bolsonaro on the defense. Brazil's Senate has opened an investigation into President Jair Bolsonaro's handling of the pandemic. He is accused of threatening governors and mayors to keep their economies open. The investigation is most likely a tool to gather evidence for a possible impeachment trial. 
India and EU negotiate. The two entities have announced they will begin negotiations on a trade deal. This comes as both the EU and India grow cold on China. So far, their biggest obstacle is centered on vaccine patents. 
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The content featured here is a small part of Hedgeye’s Demography Unplugged, a game-changing market intelligence product brought to you by historian, demographer and best-selling author Neil Howe. Visit us to find out more and subscribe.

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we pay tribute to John Williamson and Walter Mondale, RIP. Williamson died at the age of 84. He is most famous for in 1989 defining the "Washington Consensus," a list of what emerging market economies should or must do to succeed. While his theory is no longer popular, it was highly influential following the Reagan and Thatcher era. Mondale died at the age of 93. He famously lost the presidential election of 1984 in an abject defeat to Ronald Reagan. He only received 13 electoral votes, a historic low for a Democratic candidate. But perhaps his most enduring legacy is elevating the role of the VP. 
Myanmar in chaos. Daily protests continue since the military coup began on February 1. Tens of thousands of civil servants, teachers, and doctors are on strike, paralyzing the military's ability to rule. But the generals aren't backing down. They have jailed 3,000 citizens and killed an additional 700 demonstrators. Myanmar is turning into a failed state.
Putin and Xi v Biden. Russia is amassing soldiers on the Ukraine border. And China continues to send warplanes over Taiwan. Both actions seem to be testing Biden. How far can they go before he reacts? Meanwhile, Biden announces US departure from Afghanistan by 9/11/21. Putin and Xi both want to know--at what point does Putin push back?
Surge at the border. The number of working-age Mexicans apprehended at the border has more than doubled in recent months. The increase coincides with a surge in unaccompanied children and family migrants, presenting a major quandary for the Biden administration. 
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The content featured here is a small part of Hedgeye’s Demography Unplugged, a game-changing market intelligence product brought to you by historian, demographer and best-selling author Neil Howe. Visit us to find out more and subscribe.

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss the future of Biden's agenda. Last week, the White House officially unveiled its $2T infrastructure package. The plan is popular among the public, and due to reconciliation, it only needs 50 votes to pass the Senate. Biden will also try to pass a minimum wage increase, a voting rights bill, and immigration reform. But these bills can't be passed through reconciliation and will need 60 votes to bypass the filibuster. While their chances of success are slim at best, Biden may take the most popular bill--a higher minimum wage, properly tailored to meet the objections of Senator Joe Manchin--and throw it in the face of Majority Leader Mitch McConnell just in time for the 2022 elections.  
Retailers scramble over human rights. After Nike and H&M criticized China's internment of Uyghurs, the Chinese government rallied boycotts against the two brands. Other companies have now taken softer stances on human rights to try and appease the Communist Party. Though there is also the risk Western consumers will punish brands that don't take a definitive pro-Uyghur stance. Much of this drama will play out over sponsorship deals in the 2022 China Winter Olympics. 
Netanyahu tries to form a new government. In the fourth consecutive election, there is still no clear coalition government. Netanyahu, now on trial, has been given the first chance at forming a government. Most analysts suspect the country is headed for a fifth election. 
Americans grow cold on China. Fully 89% of Americans now consider China a competitor or an enemy rather than a partner. The negative sentiment is higher among Republicans than Democrats, but negative perceptions have risen equally among both groups since 2018.
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The content featured here is a small part of Hedgeye’s Demography Unplugged, a game-changing market intelligence product brought to you by historian, demographer and best-selling author Neil Howe. Visit us to find out more and subscribe.

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss Biden's immigration strategy. Currently, the White House is using former President Trump's executive orders (notably Title 42) to handle the nearly 6,000 daily border crossings. But what's Biden's long-term plan? It largely mirrors the 2013 Senate bill, penned by the "Gang of 8." Undocumented immigrants could become citizens if they pay taxes, take a background test, and work in the US for an additional eight years. 
Turkey's Lira tumbles. Over the weekend, President Recep Erdogan fired central bank head Naci Agbal. In response, the Turkish Lira fell nearly 15% on Monday. The country has always had a problem with irregular CB management. And Erdogan, like all populist autocrats, hates CB heads unless they can keep interest rates low.
#FreedomPineapple. In late February, China tried to squeeze the Taiwan economy. They banned the importation of pineapples from the island. In response, the Taiwan government asked locals and other Asian countries to buy its fruit in a new #FreedomPineapple campaign. In a few days, pineapple orders surpassed the total number shipped to China in all of 2020. Japan was one of the biggest buyers.
More baby bust evidence. According to a new CBS analysis of annual data from 32 US states, births were down by 95,000, or about 4.4%, in 2020 compared to the year before. This is in line with our prior estimate for 2020. Of the states with data available, all of them reported a drop in births except New Hampshire. 
Opioid deaths make a resurgence. Opioid overdose deaths in the U.S. have surged during the pandemic. In 2020, the death toll from all drug overdoses climbed to its highest level ever, with opioids accounting for 73% of those deaths. 
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The content featured here is a small part of Hedgeye’s Demography Unplugged, a game-changing market intelligence product brought to you by historian, demographer and best-selling author Neil Howe. Visit us to find out more and subscribe.

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss Biden's infrastructure package. The plan will cost nearly $4T over ten years. The money will be divided as follows: $1.4T for straight infrastructure, $600B for clean energy, $400B for manufacturing, $300B for innovation/R&D, and $800B for the caregiver economy. To pass this bill, Senate Democrats will need to use reconciliation. If it does pass, it will be a major win for Biden. Infrastructure has broad bipartisan appeal among the general public.
Lula is eyeing a return to Brazilian politics. In a surprise ruling, a Supreme Court judge has annulled the "lava-jato" convictions against former Brazilian president Lula da Silva. If the verdict stands, Lula could once again run for president. As Brazil's iconic if aging left-wing populist, he could be a strong candidate against Bolsonaro.
Italy’s political parties are in disarray. Since PM Mario Draghi came to power with a large coalition government, Italy’s political parties have struggled to define their future. As the Five Star Movement and the Democratic Party scramble, Lega is looking to fill the gap.
US mortality rate skyrockets. Covid-19 triggered a 15% estimated spike in the mortality rate for 2020, according to the CDC. This jump would mark the largest single-year increase since 1918.
Japan dodges C19 deaths. Last year, the number of deaths in Japan declined for the first time in more than a decade. The decrease appears to have been driven by a large decline in other respiratory illnesses like influenza and stands in stark contrast to the steeply rising mortality experienced by other countries during the pandemic. 
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The content featured here is a small part of Hedgeye’s Demography Unplugged, a game-changing market intelligence product brought to you by historian, demographer and best-selling author Neil Howe. Visit us to find out more and subscribe.