25 episodes

This is the unscripted discussions of John C. Dvorak and Andrew Horowitz. Open mic style conversations about the economy, finance and the wacky world of business. Tips and rants are all part of each episode.

DHUnplugged Podcast Horowitz and Dvorak

    • Business
    • 4.5 • 397 Ratings

This is the unscripted discussions of John C. Dvorak and Andrew Horowitz. Open mic style conversations about the economy, finance and the wacky world of business. Tips and rants are all part of each episode.

    DHUnplugged #695: Fresh Frenzy

    DHUnplugged #695: Fresh Frenzy

    Fed in Focus - FOMC Rate Decision Wednesday.

    Reddit IPO Frenzy!

    Inflation - definitely not going away.

    Announcing - A New Closest to The Pin

    PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!





    Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
    DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.




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    Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
    Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
    Warm Up
    - A New CTP Announced
    - No Show Next week - business meetings out of town
    - A not so surprising result in the Russian Elections
    - An important change to stock trade settlements is coming

    Market Update
    - Fed in Focus - FOMC Rate Decision Wednesday
    - Reddit IPO Frenzy
    - Inflation - definitely not going away
    - AI Frenzy - Culd Call This DHAI Unplugged - so much AI news to discuss
    - Yield Frenzy

    PPI Release
    - After  a HOT CPI, PPI Comes in Hotter
    - 0.6% on the core - but only 1.6% YoY
    - The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.6 percent in February.
    - Prices for final demand goods advanced 1.2 percent, and the index for final demand services moved up 0.3 percent.
    - Prices for final demand advanced 1.6 percent for the 12 months ended in February.
    - Markets didn't know what to do with this on Friday.



    PPI MoM




    Company Stats - Recession?
    - According to FactSet: During Dec-March earnings calls, 47 cited the term “recession” during their earnings calls for the fourth quarter.
    -- This number is below the 5-year average of 85 and below the 10-year average of 61.
    - This quarter will mark the lowest number of S&P 500 companies citing “recession” on earnings calls for a quarter since Q4 2021
    Companies Citing Recession
    % of Companies
    Reddit
    - IPO slated to be live sometime this week (March 21)
    - 5X Oversubscribed
    - Reddit began sending invitations to users to participate in the IPO based on one of two measurements of engagement on the site: either the number of actions they’ve taken as a moderator of a forum on the platform (also known as a “subreddit”) or their “karma” score, a figure that indicates a user’s contributions and reputation among other users on the site.
    - Reddit plans to list 22 million shares at a price between $31 and $34, according to the latest version of the IPO prospectus it filed Monday with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company stands to take in between $473.6 million and $519.4 million from the sale of roughly 15.3 million shares.
    - Valuation > $6 billion
    - Question???? Is Reddit profitable? NO -  However, the company has been substantially growing revenue in the past few years.
    ---- Reddit's total revenue in 2023 was $804 million, up 21% from $666 million in 2022.
    ----- Reddit's net loss for 2023 narrowed to $90.8 million.

    Yields - 10 YR
    - Highest level of 2024
    - technically breaking out - if Fed moves a bot more hawkish - 4.50% is next test
    Yields
    Japan Yields
    - The Bank of Japan is set to raise its key interest rate for the first time in 17 years on Tuesday following its two-day monetary policy meeting, Kyodo reported.
    - The BOJ will raise the short-term rate to the 0%-0.1% range, the report said. The development reflects growing confidence among policymakers that a virtuous cycle of wage growth and price hikes is in motion following this year’s labor-management pay negotiations
    - RAISING TO ZERO!

    Global Rates - Who Will CUT First?
    First Mover?
    ELON
    - Increasing prices on Model Y by $1,000
    --- Stock moves up by 6%
    - Goldman Downgrades - Perhaps this is why stock moved up - another bug downgrade - stock in the toilet - nowhere else to go
    --- SpaceX is building a network of hundreds of spy satellites under a classified contract with a U.S. intelligence agency, five sources familiar with the program said, demonstrating deepening ties between billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk's space company and national security agencies.

    Elon - Ketamine

    • 1 hr 5 min
    DHUnplugged #694: Lots of China

    DHUnplugged #694: Lots of China

    Volatility is back and Bitcoin mania is here again.

    Need a new CTP Stock!

    China stocks on a run...

    PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!





    Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
    DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.




    Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?




    Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
    Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
    Warm Up
    - Volatility is back
    - Bitcoin mania
    - Need a new CTP Stock!
    - LSD - making an interesting comeback

    Market Update
    - NVDA had 2 down days!
    - Markets still want to go higher - not matter what the data
    - Yields move up with CPI
    - Big rebound for NVDA - not letting it go down too much...

    CPI Release
    - Total CPI increased by 0.4% month-over-month, meeting expectations, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) also rose by 0.4% month-over-month (0.3%).
    - On a year-over-year basis, total CPI was up 3.2%, compared to 3.1% in January, and core CPI increased by 3.8%, versus 3.9% in January.
    - Excluding shelter, CPI rose by a more modest 1.8% year-over-year.
    - Despite the headline disappointment for core CPI, the market seems optimistic about the future, anticipating a reduction in the isolated impact of the shelter index in the coming months due to an expected moderation in rent prices. (in other words, thinking the Fed's PCE will not be so hot next time and the Fed will still cut sometime this year)




    CPI Report key takeaways:
    - The food index showed no change month-over-month and increased by 2.2% year-over-year.
    - The energy index rose by 2.3% month-over-month and declined by 1.9% year-over-year.
    - Used cars and trucks saw a 0.5% increase month-over-month and a 1.8% decrease year-over-year.
    - The apparel index was up 0.6% month-over-month and unchanged year-over-year.
    - The all items index, excluding food, shelter, and energy, increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.2% year-over-year.
    Inflation - YoY




    Inflation - ACTUAL
    Layoffs - Does not fit the narrative
    - Layoff announcements in February hit their highest level for the month since the global financial crisis, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
    - The total of 84,638 planned cuts showed an increase of 3% from January and 9% from the same month a year ago, with technology and finance companies at the forefront.
    - From a historical perspective, this was the worst February since 2009, which saw 186,350 announcements as the worst of the financial crisis was seemingly coming to an end.
    - Here is where it gets interesting: The layoff numbers, however, are not feeding through to weekly jobless claims, suggesting that unemployment is short-lived and workers are able to find new positions.

    Powell
    - On one hand he stated that the Fed is watching and not ready yet to cut rates - data dependent
    - A couple days later he indicated that interest rate cuts may not be too far off if inflation signals cooperate.
    - In remarks to the Senate Banking Committee, the central bank leader didn't provide a precise timetable of when he sees easing happening, but noted that the day could be coming soon.

    Mnuchin to the Rescue?
    -NYCB had bad month - and got worse
    - Lost 7% of deposits
    - Bond rating cut
    - Investment firm lead by Steve Mnuchin swooped in with a cool $1 billion rescue package
    - Remember NYCD bought Signature Bank - obviously so much crap in that portfolio it helped poison NYCB

    Oracle Earnings
    - New ATH
    - Reports Q3 (Feb) earnings of $1.41 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.03 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.38; revenues rose 7.1% year/year to $13.28 bln vs the $13.29 bln FactSet Consensus.

    - Q3 Total Remaining Performance Obligations up 29% to $80 billion.
    - Q3 Cloud Revenue (IaaS plus SaaS) $5.1 billion, up 25% in USD, up 24% in constant currency.
    - Q3 Cloud Infrastructure (IaaS) Revenue $1.8 billion, up 49% in both USD and constant currency.

    • 1 hr 4 min
    DHUnplugged #693: Best of DHU (2)

    DHUnplugged #693: Best of DHU (2)

    All sorts of good stuff in this episode.

    Some good laughs and fun throughout the year.

    Thanks to Ryan Rediske for all the help in putting this together!





     
    DHUnplugged is streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar for access.





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    Then how about a Donation?






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    • 1 hr 1 min
    DHUnplugged #692: Froth-A-Bubble

    DHUnplugged #692: Froth-A-Bubble

    TECH on fire - Bulls overjoyed!
    Hedge Funds - Making some moves - Surprising
    Year of Pharma?
    To The Moon - Crypto Style
    Valuations getting frothy?

    PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!





    Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
    DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.




    Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?




    Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
    Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
    Warm Up
    - Pays to Follow Pelosi!
    - Landing on the Moon - then falling over
    - Japan - something not kosher
    - New See-through laptop screens

    Market Update
    - TECH on fire - Bulls overjoyed!
    - Hedge Funds - Making some moves - Surprising
    - Year of Pharma?
    - To The Moon - Crypto Style
    - Valuations getting frothy

     

    Froth-a-Bubble- Icous?
    - There is some concern at Apollo regarding a bubble in S&P 500
    - The top 10 companies in the S&P 500 today are more overvalued than the top 10 companies were during the tech bubble in the mid-1990s, see chart below.
    - Different makeup back in 1999 - but still of interest asa the S&P500 reaches levels (P/E) at the high end of the ranges.
    - SEE LINK
    Smart Money?
    - Hedge funds piled into tech stocks in the weeks before Nvidia Corp. earnings. Now, they’re cashing out and selling at the fastest pace in seven months.
    - Professional managers offloaded their positions for four straight sessions last week, including Thursday, the day after Nvidia posted results, according to data from Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime-brokerage unit. The intensity of the selling ranks in the 98th
    - he data suggests traders are booking profits on their tech wagers after a six-week buying streak and putting that extra cash into less volatile stocks, such as consumer staples.
    - SEE LINK
    Nancy!
    - NEWS MONDAY: PANW - Palo Alto Networks shares higher by 9% after Rep. Nancy Pelosi reported Friday afternoon the purchase of 70 call options (purchases made 2/12 and 2/21)
    - Stock moved down 27% after earnings last week
    - In fairness, the purchases on 2/12 are very underwater
    - AH picked this for the game right after post-earnings slump

    Earnings - Zoom
    - Zoom shares rose as much as 13% in extended trading on Monday after the video chat software vendor announced fiscal fourth-quarter results that topped analysts' expectations.
    - Here's how the company did, compared with consensus among analysts polled by LSEG:
    - -- - Earnings per share: $1.22, adjusted vs. $1.15 expected
    - - - -Revenue: $1.15 billion vs. $1.13 billion expected

    Disney
    -Walt Disneyshareholder Blackwells Capital is calling for it to come up with an artificial intelligence (AI) strategy, saying that this could lift the U.S. media and entertainment conglomerate's stock price by as much as 129%.
    Blackwells is one of two activist investors pushing for board seats
    What Goes Up...
    - Intuitive Machines Inc. shares sink Monday, after the spacecraft company said its lander, which successfully touched down on the moon last week, likely landed on its side.
    - The landing was touted as the first by a private-sector company to reach the moon intact, as well as the first US spacecraft to reach the moon’s surface since 1972.
    - In a Monday update, the company wrote that “flight controllers intend to collect data until the lander’s solar panels are no longer exposed to light,” and that “based on Earth and Moon positioning, we believe flight controllers will continue to communicate with Odysseus until Tuesday morning.”
    - Stock down 33% on this news
    Japan
    - Markets at new highs
    - Yen weak weak weak
    - Government keeps ultra-loose monetary policy
    - Recession official
    - Something is not right over there

    More Japan
    - Federal prosecutors in New York on Wednesday said they had charged a Japanese Yakuza leader with conspiring to traffic nuclear materials from Burma to other countries.
    - Prosecutors said the accused gangster Takeshi Ebisawa "and his confederates showed sa...

    • 1 hr 4 min
    DHUnplugged #691: Lying Flat

    DHUnplugged #691: Lying Flat

    Japan makes surprise crypto move.

    AI dating coaches are coming
    - Markets plunge - then rebound nicely
    - AI Buying AI stuff
    - Cure for Frostbite?

    PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!





    Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
    DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.




    Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?




    Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
    Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
    Warm Up
    - AI dating coaches are coming
    - Markets plunge - then rebound nicely
    - AI Buying AI stuff
    - Cure for Frostbite?
    - AMAZING AMAZON

    Market Update
    - Japan - really pumping the risk assets
    - China government making $$ moves
    - China: Latest Problem: Lying Flat
    - Whoops - What is an extra ZERO anyway?
     Follow Up----
    - USA CPI came out HOT!
    - January PPI increased by 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%), with the previous figure revised to -0.1% from -0.2%. Meanwhile, January Core PPI rose by 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%), and the prior number was revised to -0.1% from 0.0%.
    - The significant message from the report aligns with the conclusion drawn from the unexpectedly high January CPI report: whether the market opts to overlook this data due to seasonal adjustments, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to dismiss it.
    - The Fed is likely to perceive it as a reason to maintain a patient approach in terms of potential rate cuts.
    Market Hysteria
    - The Russell 2000, sank 4% on Tuesday, but ultimately settled 1.1% higher on the week. The market-cap weighted S&P 500 declined 0.4% this week, but the equal-weighted S&P 500 jumped 0.7%.
    - The Russell was DOWN 4% on Tuesday after the hotter than expected CPI report.
    - In addition to the hot CPI reading, market participants also digested a below-consensus Retail Sales report for January, an unexpected drop in jobless claims to 212,000, and a hotter-than-expected PPI report for January.
    -The 2-yr note yield settled 15 basis points higher this week to 4.65% in response to this week's data and the 10-yr note yield rose 11 basis points this week to 4.30%. (Briefing.com)

    Japan Crypto News
    - Japan inched closer to allowing venture capital firms and other investment funds to hold digital assets directly, after Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s administration agreed to submit a revised bill to implement the change.
    - His cabinet approved the text of a bill on Feb. 16 that seeks to partially amend the country’s industrial competitiveness enhancement act, according to a statement published on the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry’s website. The bill states that “measures will be taken to add cryptoassets to the list of assets that can be acquired and held by investment limited partnerships,” referring to a vehicle used by venture capital firms to secure capital for investments.

    China
    - China’s southern province of Hainan moved to cut down-payment ratio for first-time homebuyers, the latest region in the country to ease mortgage policies to boost slumping home sales.
    - Minimum down payment for first homes was cut to 20% from 25%, according to a Monday report by Hainan Daily. The ratio for second homes remains unchanged at 30%, the outlet reported, citing a government notice without saying when the measure would go into effect.

    More China
    - China's market opened after the long Lunar New Year break with a thud.
    - China looks to be still buying directly into markets to prop up
    - Reports about pre-pandemic level spending on goods and travel, especially during the Lunar New Year did not lift the mood much

    China's Newest Concern: Lie Flat
    - "lie flat", a Chinese term used to describe people who work just enough to afford to spend their time on what they enjoy.
    ---- Not like Japan Inc of the 1980's
    - Although there is no data on how many young Chinese are opting out of corporate jobs that they traditionally would have taken, the youth jobless rate rose to a record high of 21.

    • 58 min
    DHUnplugged #690: To The Moon

    DHUnplugged #690: To The Moon

    SUPERBOWL Mania.
    Bitcoin Fever is back
    HUGE week for economic reports
    Altman looking for $
    Winner for SAVE CTP announced

    PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!





    Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
    DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.




    Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?




    Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
    Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
    Warm Up
    -  SUPERBOWL Mania
    - Bitcoin Fever is back
    - HUGE week for economic reports
    - Altman looking for $
    - Winner for SAVE CTP

    Market Update
    - 3-Day Rule (Buy after plunge) - Made up Nonsense
    - Get out your 5,000 Hats!
    - Disney Earnings - Good Stuff
    - ARM Blowout
    - CPI Report Meltdown
     S&P 500 Breaks 5,000!
    - All time high
    - The S&P 500 continues to hit fresh milestones with a first-ever break above the 5,000 level, its valuation is reaching new heights as well.
    - PE - forward price-to-earnings ratio -- a commonly used metric to value stocks -- this week rose to 20.4 times, a level last reached in February 2022, according to LSEG Datastream.
    - That puts it far above the index’s historic average of 15.7.
    - Expectations are for 9.7% earnings growth for 2024
    - "The good news is that valuations, while stretched ... are nowhere near the 28x peak at the Y2K Bubble Top," Emanuel said. ????
    Follow Up----
    - CPI came out HOT!
    - YoY 3.1% for CPU and 3.9% for Core
    - The food index was up 0.4% month-over-month and up 2.6% year-over-year.
    - The energy index was down 0.9% month-over-month and down 4.6% year-over-year.
    - The used cars and trucks index decreased 3.4% month-over-month and was down 3.5% year-over-year.
    - The shelter index was up 0.6% month-over-month and up 6.0% year-over-year.
    - The all items index less shelter was up 1.5% year-over-year.
    ----- Markets hit after reports - gained a bit back toward end of the session - but overbought and hot CPI don't mix
    --- Small Caps down 4%, NAZ down 2% S&P down 1.4%

    What Does it Mean?
    - Fed funds futures push any cut until June
    - 4 cuts are expectations for 2024 (down 7 at the start of the year)

    Economics this week
    Economics
    NVDA
    - Up, Up, UP
    - Goldman Target = $800
    - NVIDIA surpassed Amazon (AMZN) in market value for a brief period on Monday

    More NVDA
    - Company is building a new business unit focused on designing bespoke chips for cloud computing firms and others, including advanced artificial intelligence (AI) processors, nine sources familiar with its plans told Reuters.
    - The dominant global designer and supplier of AI chips aims to capture a portion of an exploding market for custom AI chips and shield itself from the growing number of companies pursuing alternatives to its products.

    Altman (ChatGPT)
    - OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is seeking trillions of dollars in investments to overhaul the global semiconductor industry
    - Altman has long talked of the supply and demand problem with AI chips
    - He's considering a project that would increase global chip-building capacity,
    - Altman could need to raise between $5 trillion and $7 trillion for the endeavor
    - Reportedly in talks with different investors, including the government of the United Arab Emirates.

    Waymo Cars Attacked
    - On Saturday night, a crowd surrounded a white sport utility vehicle that was moving along a street in the city's Chinatown district (San Fran)
    - A person jumped onto the hood of the Waymo vehicle and broke its windshield. Another person also jumped on the hood 30 seconds later as some in the crowd clapped in approval
    - Fireworks thrown in car and set on fire.
    - On previous occasions in San Francisco and Phoenix, Arizona, groups have disrupted the operations of self-driving vehicles, blocking their path, trying to enter the vehicles and jumping on their hoods

    Amazon
    - Bezos unloading shares
    - $2 billion last week
    - Plans to sell 50 million shares over the  next year or so

    Israel
    - Downgraded by Moody's

    • 1 hr

Customer Reviews

4.5 out of 5
397 Ratings

397 Ratings

retrieverbuddy ,

Yakity Yak

Always something learned. Moo Wagyu…gonna give your cooking suggestions a go

noarminian ,

Fast forward to the 10 minute mark.

Horowitz likes to talk about himself for the first 10 minutes or so. Still a 5.

Guiddm ,

Being crass

Incredible that you’ll make fun of Christians and Catholics and then in the very next sentence complaining about Kanye West being antisemitic… Stunning.

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