Ellen Wald and Ryan Ray discuss the week's events in energy, and what it all means to you.
Episode 165 - Chinese demand | Q2 earnings | The True Cost of Solar
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On this episode of the Energy Week Podcast, Ryan Ray and Ellen Wald talk about Chinese demand, Q2 earnings, and the cost of solar.
Oil prices slide on worries over China economy and higher crude output
- highest gasoline consumption
- broke record for TSA screenings showing Americans are on the move
- Chinese economy slowing based on higher raw material costs, flooding issues and other
- Can we expect China to keep having double digit growth
Vitol's Muller expects China to release 25-30 mil bbls from strategic oil reserves in Q4
- China’s way of saying oil prices are too high for them
- will it help cool off oil prices?
- How long can China play the SPR game?
Exxon, Chevron Beat Q2 Forecasts But Contrast On Paying Shareholders More
- both companies beat expectations but share prices fell
- when will they put money into capex?
Behind the Rise of U.S. Solar Power, a Mountain of Chinese Coal
- People want to buy the cheaper solar panels even if they are produced using lots of coal fired energy
U.S. Blames Iran for Drone Attack on Israeli-Linked Tanker
Rising gasoline prices signal trouble for climate change action
- higher prices mean people don’t want to pay for renewables, EVs
‘Greenflation’ threatens to derail climate change action
- All of the products we need to combat climate change like copper and aluminum are getting too expensive because demand for producing them is up.
Episode 164 - US will rethink policy on sanctions, sort of | How are commodity prices impacting EVs?
Oil falls as coronavirus, slower China imports hit demand
- how much impact will floods in China actually have on demand?
- and what about the teapots? their quotes are down in H2
Chinese oil companies fill void in Iraq
- But do Chinese companies provide the quality needed? In Iran, largely unsatisfied. Will Iraq suffer similar issues?
EV Batteries: The Next Victim of High Commodity Prices?
- China controls 40% of supply chain when it comes to components of EV battery manufacturing.
Big Oil Companies Push Hydrogen as Green Alternative, but Obstacles Remain
- it's expensive and really hard to do with alternative or renewable energy.
US rethinks sanctions approach
- reviewing sanctions policy is probably a good idea since they haven't achieved anything, and what were they designed to achieve anyway?
U.S. weighs crackdown on China's import of Iranian oil
- Would this really do much to pressure Iran anyway?
Opec+ issues August, September quotas
- gasoline demand up last week, but have we reached the limit of how much gasoline demand we will see this year?
Episode 163 - Dr. Dean Foreman and June MSR | Does solar create middle class jobs | European aircraft movements rising
Dr. Dean Foreman and June MSR
- validating what we’ve seen
- Urban driving activity on the gasoline side + tourism
- Jet fuel demand is up, June is the strongest month so far. 4th straight month of increase for jet fuel. 8% increase from May. Still 1/5 below where it was in 2019. International travel hasn’t picked up yet.
- petrochemicals: medical plastics and packing plastics demand continuing from last year. double digit gains from last year.
- Total demand for distillates has basically peaked, but on growth on a year to year basis its showing strong economic activity and industrial growth. Strong sign of growth.
- Refining picking up, inventories there, ready to be used. Crude oil inventories are edging down. Indication that supply for crude oil isn’t keeping up with demand. We are importing more of what we need. We have an issue looking out over next year. When we consider demand growth with drilling activity even with strong productivity at well level, we need to see more drilling activity than we’ve been seeing to keep up.
- Inventories are at the bottom of the 5 year band. Relatively low. But the upper end of the band was expanded with major inventory builds in 2020.
- Permian doesn’t have pipeline constraints but other basins have pipeline constraints so there may be hesitancy to invest in more production. But they can all be profitable at recent prices.
- Pickup in crude oil exports from US in June. Pull from international demand. Exports will soon be blamed for lifting prices in the US.
- Inflation: Federal reserve needs to look harder at oil and gas and inflation, especially impact on consumers. EIA has assumed that domestic drilling would be and will be stronger than it has been.
- Natural gas outlook: drilling activity low, spot prices for natural gas high, futures curve, would seen like its economic to do dedicated natural gas drilling. There is some pick up in Ohio and Pennsylvania drilling but lack of associated natural gas from fracking.
Building Solar Farms May Not Build the Middle Class
- operating solar and wind plants aren’t the same as oil, gas and nuclear plants and don’t require the same type of skilled workers or as many so when plants shut down, workers are losing jobs
European aircraft movements rising: Eurocontrol
- flights are up to 23,000 compared to 36,000 on the same day in 2019.
Emissions could hit new record by 2023 without more spending on clean energy
- even with more spending on clean energy emissions will rise
Oil firms after slide but COVID-19 and supply concerns remain
Episode 162: Gasoline demand back for now | Biden's quest for cheap gasoline tests his climate goals
U.S. Refineries Eye Week of Strong Gasoline Demand With Caution
- summer is in full swing and so is gasoline demand
- Was July 4 the height of gasoline demand? Is is downhill from here? Or will we see another surge when people go back to work/office in September?
Biden's quest for cheap gasoline tests his climate goals
- Did Biden really try to get OPEC+ to increase production?
- Is Biden really concerned about higher gasoline prices right now?
Higher Inflation Is Here to Stay for Years, Economists Forecast
- 3.9% inflation in May excluding energy and food. 3.9% including food and energy.
- But energy impacts everything over the line
- Fed still thinks inflation is transitory due to bottlenecks and hiring difficulties.
- But lots of industries are having issues that aren’t related to Covid
OPEC+ yet to make progress in resolving impasse, sources say
- Will OPEC get its act together?
Analysis: Big Oil keeps brakes on spending even with crude rally windfall
BP Report Tries To Explain What Really Happened to Energy Markets in 2020
- China to the rescue when it comes to natural gas demand in 2020
- Will natural gas prices decline or increase as we get into winter?
Episode 161 - Pemex pipeline sets ocean ablaze | OPEC can't reach deal | Paul Hickin with S&P Global Platts
More from Ryan:
Connect with Ellen:
Paul Hickin with S&P Global Platts @GramscianPaul
Undersea gas pipeline rupture causes fire in Gulf of Mexico
- PEMEX fault, not “capitalism”
- Mexico actually the first country to nationalize its subsoil resources
- PEMEX doesn’t maintain infrastructure well and chronically underfunded
Explosion rocks Caspian Sea near Azerbaijan gas field
Saudi oil minister highlights need to extend Opec+ deal
Saudi Arabia pushes back on UAE opposition to OPEC+ deal
- Iraq committed to OPEC+ deal, doesn’t want a price war
- Favors extended
Paul Hickin with S&P Global Platts @GramscianPaul
- OPEC and OPEC+ — different situation from Saudi/Russia spat last year
- When UAE first raised baseline issue, prices were only in $40 range. Different scenario now
- UAE made more sacrifices than other members
- UAE looking to go up to 5 mbpd by 2030
- Is it realistic to change the baselines? Would be hard is only some baselines change.
- Prices have surged a bit - perhaps likelihood of no new deal? Or an OPEC fudge?
- China’s oil storage: little bit of a black box
- Has gone from 50 days cover in imports 5 years ago to 100 days of imports. Puts China on par with IEA countries, which have to cover 90 days
- Shows how important China views oil, still.
- 2 million bpd in refining/petrochemical capacity to come online
- If China wants to play a role as a swing consumer, it could do this using its oil stocks.
- China buys when crude is cheap, less keen when crude is higher, but still buy a lot because of domestic demand. Oil security means won’t draw down too far into reserves.
Episode 160 - Shale can't get funding | OPEC forecasts supply deficit in August | Biden's ticking climate clock
Upbeat US shale sector still not primed for growth
- lack of new capital for oil and gas investments could hamstring production in coming years.
- 1/400 investors seems willing to provide funding
Ahead of talks, OPEC forecasts point to oil supply deficit in August
- Is there REALLY an oil supply deficit? How much is in storage?
- OPEC will have returned 5.8 million bpd to the market of the 9.7 million bpd they took off last year.
Saudi Aramco bets on blue hydrogen exports ramping up from 2030
- $1 billion just to capture the carbon for every million tons of blue ammonia produced
Trump’s Thwarted Oil Buy Would’ve Given Biden $6 Billion Bonanza
Supreme Court rules in favor of refiners on exemptions from renewable fuel obligations
Biden's ticking climate clock
The Dark Side of Solar Power
Insightful commentary on weekly energy news.
One of the best
Great show, with great insights. Look forward to the show each week. Keep em’ coming.
Great industry Insight
Podcast has really great and smart industry insight but it hardly makes what’s-her-face an expert on COVID19 or anything outside of oil and gas. And her giggling cohost doesn’t make it better. Love the industry news, save the sophomoric complaining and wading into areas of self proclaimed expertise that no one downloaded this podcast to hear.