Excel in Retirement David C. Treece

You’ve probably heard by now that Silicon Valley Bank failed last Friday. 

It appears the bank rapidly took deposits over the last few years, and they needed somewhere to place their funds. And here begins the problem. The bank put money in Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities. When interest rates go up, bonds lose value.


A few depositors figured this out and began withdrawing their large deposits in the bank. Eventually the bank was unable to meet the demand of withdrawals. Which is a bank’s worst nightmare!


If you’ve been following this saga, you may be reading about fears of “contagion,” which is a fancy way of saying when one bank fails there is risk that other banks may fail due to fear of similar circumstances.


Just last week, head of the Fed Jerome Powell indicated that interest rates will continue to rise in his comments to Congress. The government had appeared to think inflation was coming down, and interest rate increases might slow down. But after the economy added more jobs than expected this year, Powell began indicating that the rates are likely to continue rising. It will be interesting to see if the government pauses raising rates when they meet later this month or if the Fed will continue its plan to raise rates.


What should you do? If you have a well-thought-out plan of action, you should probably do nothing.


Nick Murray, an advisor and prolific author on the market, wrote, “Wealth is not determined by investment performance, but by investor behavior.”


The goal with financial planning is doing the planning so that you don’t have to be reactionary when difficult times happen in the market. People with no plan have to play defense all the time, but we know the only way to win is by playing offense.


You can be positioned to play offense by staying invested in difficult periods if you have a plan. Time and time again I have people tell me that if only they had not sold and had stayed invested, they’d be so much better off. Selling in difficult markets is what we do when we don’t have a plan. If you don't have a financial plan now is the time to develop it.

Investment advisory services offered only by duly registered individuals through AE Wealth Management, LLC (AEWM). AEWM and Clients Excel, LLC are not affiliated companies. Investing involves risk, including potential loss of principal. Any references to protection, safety, or lifetime income, generally refer to fixed insurance products, never securities or investments. Insurance guarantees are backed by the financial strength and claims paying abilities of the insuring carrier. This podcast is intended for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be used as the sole basis for financial decisions, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet particular needs of an individual’s situation. Clients Excel is not permitted to offer and no statement made during this show shall constitute tax or legal advice. Our firm is not affiliated with or endorsed by the U.S. Government or any governmental agency. The information and opinions contained herein provided by third parties have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed by Clients Excel. The use of logos and/or trademarks of podcast hosting sites are the property of their respective owners and are not an endorsement by those owners of our firm or our program.

Like a lot of people, I’ve always had a job where I work with people, and it’s always fascinated me to try to figure out why people think the way they do. People are unique, but their themes are similar.
In my role as a financial planner, I primarily assist Baby Boomers who are navigating how to retire. Or that’s often when we were first acquainted. In our initial meeting I always ask, “How are you feeling about the stock market?” You’d be surprised at the responses, but one theme repeats.

I ask this question when the stock market is doing well, and when it’s struggling like it has been recently. Naturally, the answers vary, but in our current prolonged downturn I’ve been getting an interesting response.
People have frequently said something along the lines of, “The market is down, but I believe in the market. It’ll come back, and we’ll (America) get it figured out.” I don’t disagree but think with me about the importance of our order of returns. 

Steve and Bill are brothers. Bill has a few years on Steve. Bill retired in 2000, and Steve retired in 2010. They both entered retirement with $500,000 saved. They both began withdrawing $30,000 to supplement their incomes.
From 2010 to 2019 the worst market return came in 2018, but it wasn’t even a 6.5% decline. Most will recall that 2000 to 2009 was a wildly different situation. The market had four negative years with the worst of which being a drop of 38%.
Who do you think came out better? Clearly, Steve had more favorable circumstances. Steve, retiring in 2010 had over $874,000 in 2019 while taking the $30,000 away each year. Bill on the other hand was left with less than $97,000.

Managing risk in retirement is as important as managing our portfolio for returns. We call it going from an accumulation phase to an income and distribution phase.
 
When we’re younger and have a longer time horizon we should work to accumulate, but when we’re five years out from retirement or in retirement we should be in an income and distribution phase. The later goal being figuring out how to make our funds last as long as possible.

So, this begs the question. What is your strategy for managing your risk in retirement? If you don’t have one, we’d be happy to talk with you to share how we help our clients manage their downside exposure.


Do you have a question? Would you like to learn more? Email
Connect@ClientsExcel.com or call 864.641.7955. 

Investment advisory services offered only by duly registered individuals through AE Wealth Management, LLC (AEWM). AEWM and Clients Excel, LLC are not affiliated companies. Investing involves risk, including potential loss of principal. Any references to protection, safety, or lifetime income, generally refer to fixed insurance products, never securities or investments. Insurance guarantees are backed by the financial strength and claims paying abilities of the insuring carrier. This podcast is intended for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be used as the sole basis for financial decisions, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet particular needs of an individual’s situation. Clients Excel is not permitted to offer and no statement made during this show shall constitute tax or legal advice. Our firm is not affiliated with or endorsed by the U.S. Government or any governmental agency. The information and opinions contained herein provided by third parties have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed by Clients Excel. The use of logos and/or trademarks of podcast hosting sites are the property of their respective owners and are not an endorsement by those owners of our firm or our program.

With inflation at 40-year highs some seniors feel this year’s big cost of living increase in Social Security is falling short. Yahoo Finance had an article last week that said, “According to a new survey by the Senior Citizens League, 54% of older Americans think the 8.7% increase in the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) this year won't keep up with inflation.”
What’s troubling is that the government’s rapid interest rate increases over the last year have done little to slow inflation. The latest government reports reveal inflation is remaining elevated at 6.4%. The government has stated they are resolved to bring inflation levels down to the 2% range, which means we have a long way to go at our current rate. 

It’s a juggling act. The economy has continued to grow despite the rate increases which is a problem for the government. The Federal Reserve is attempting to not break the economy, and get inflation lowered.
 Interestingly, for the first time in recent memory the government is on the other side of the table from investors like you and me. Generally, the government is trying to keep the economy going and the stock market growing. AARP reports, “Nearly half (48 percent) of households headed by someone 55 and older lack some form of retirement savings, according to the latest estimates by the U.S. Government Accountability Office.”
So, the government is now on the side of the table of folks with little to no savings. What I mean by this is the government is trying to lower the cost of things for those most impacted by price increases: those with little savings. We’ve got a front row seat to see how this plays out.

What should you do? Listen in to find out...
Do you have a question? Would you like to learn more? Email
Connect@ClientsExcel.com or call 864.641.7955. 

Investment advisory services offered only by duly registered individuals through AE Wealth Management, LLC (AEWM). AEWM and Clients Excel, LLC are not affiliated companies. Investing involves risk, including potential loss of principal. Any references to protection, safety, or lifetime income, generally refer to fixed insurance products, never securities or investments. Insurance guarantees are backed by the financial strength and claims paying abilities of the insuring carrier. This podcast is intended for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be used as the sole basis for financial decisions, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet particular needs of an individual’s situation. Clients Excel is not permitted to offer and no statement made during this show shall constitute tax or legal advice. Our firm is not affiliated with or endorsed by the U.S. Government or any governmental agency. The information and opinions contained herein provided by third parties have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed by Clients Excel. The use of logos and/or trademarks of podcast hosting sites are the property of their respective owners and are not an endorsement by those owners of our firm or our program.

When we age into the time we can claim Social Security the temptation is strong to get the money as soon as we can. In fact, most people claim as soon as they can at 62. I get it. I love having extra money in my pocket, but it’s important to understand that we may be giving up quite a bit of money.

The Wall Street Journal had an article last Sunday about this topic. It said, “A recent study, funded by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, finds that retirees often give up tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of dollars by taking Social Security benefits too early.” The article states that researchers found that 90% of people would benefit from waiting to claim until 70, and this would increase discretionary income spending by 10% or $182,370. Did you ever think that claiming early could be that costly?

If you’ve already claimed, you’re not alone. Only 10% of people will wait until age 70. I’ve found that most people get little to no help with making Social Security decisions. The rules surrounding how to claim are daunting too. It’s been estimated that there are 81 age combinations and 567 sets of calculations to determine how and when to claim your Social Security. It’s not exactly easy to figure out. In our office we use software to analyze the best claiming strategies. The computer program will show you how you can get the most out of your benefits over your lifetime. 

Unfortunately, you won’t get this help at the Social Security office. Sadly, the government is not equipped to give you advice on how to claim a benefit that you’ve paid into since you began working. Also, what I find is that most people who come into our office to talk about their Social Security have a financial advisor, and yet that advisor has never given them an objective plan for how to claim their benefits. You have to scratch your head and wonder why. After all, the difference in how we can claim Social Security can be the difference of over a hundred thousand dollars. Making the wrong decision may cost you. 

If you’d like to get a Social Security report that illustrates how to get the most out of Social Security, please let us know. We can schedule a 15-minute call to get a few details to run the report. We’d be happy to provide this complimentary resource. You can reach us at 864.641.7955.

Investment advisory services offered only by duly registered individuals through AE Wealth Management, LLC (AEWM). AEWM and Clients Excel, LLC are not affiliated companies. Investing involves risk, including potential loss of principal. Any references to protection, safety, or lifetime income, generally refer to fixed insurance products, never securities or investments. Insurance guarantees are backed by the financial strength and claims paying abilities of the insuring carrier. This podcast is intended for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be used as the sole basis for financial decisions, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet particular needs of an individual’s situation. Clients Excel is not permitted to offer and no statement made during this show shall constitute tax or legal advice. Our firm is not affiliated with or endorsed by the U.S. Government or any governmental agency. The information and opinions contained herein provided by third parties have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed by Clients Excel. The use of logos and/or trademarks of podcast hosting sites are the property of their respective owners and are not an endorsement by those owners of our firm or our program.

Did you ever read Sherlock Holmes? In the 1894 story entitled “The Adventure of Silver Blaze” Holmes noticed something odd when he was attempting to solve the mystery.
Holmes said, “the curious incident of the dog in the night-time” and the detail that the dog did not bark or make a commotion during the commission of the crime. Holmes concluded that the suspect must be someone the dog knew because the dog didn’t stir. If someone is breaking into a house and a dog resides there, you’d expect the dog to bark and growl.
The decline in the market this year has been analogized in some ways. Often, when the market experiences a downturn, there  are lots of sudden uproar about the hit people are feeling. Just think back to the year 2020 when the pandemic started in the spring. On several trading days the market triggers paused trading because the market was selling off so quickly.
This year is different in the sense that we are familiar with who’s causing the market decline. You may have already figured out where I’m going. The government is leading us into a recession, but we’re not seeing the uproar that often coincides with market downturn. And I think it may be because we’re familiar with the culprit.
While the economy has slowed as evidenced by us technically being in a recession, it has not slowed enough to cool inflation. This means the pressure is on the Federal Reserve to do more, but they are limited in their ability to have an impact.
What this means for people in the market: First, we should not have money in the market we will need in the next ten years. However, we need our money productively allocated to maintain our lifestyle in retirement. You have options for your income money in retirement.
Second, if our market volatility is causing you turmoil consider using a hedge called a buffered ETF. This has resonated with some of our clients this year. You can be buffered against the first 15% of losses in the S&P 500. In exchange for the buffer, we are capped at earning around 15% of what the S&P 500 produces over the next twelve months.
This allows you to not have to attempt to time the market (nobody can), but allows some peace of mind that if the market drops further, you have a buffer in place. If you’d like to learn more about this strategy or others, please call our office at 864.641.7955.

Investment advisory services offered only by duly registered individuals through AE Wealth Management, LLC (AEWM). AEWM and Clients Excel, LLC are not affiliated companies. Investing involves risk, including potential loss of principal. Any references to protection, safety, or lifetime income, generally refer to fixed insurance products, never securities or investments. Insurance guarantees are backed by the financial strength and claims paying abilities of the insuring carrier. This podcast is intended for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be used as the sole basis for financial decisions, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet particular needs of an individual’s situation. Clients Excel is not permitted to offer and no statement made during this show shall constitute tax or legal advice. Our firm is not affiliated with or endorsed by the U.S. Government or any governmental agency. The information and opinions contained herein provided by third parties have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed by Clients Excel. The use of logos and/or trademarks of podcast hosting sites are the property of their respective owners and are not an endorsement by those owners of our firm or our program.

The media and the government have gotten creative with answering whether we are in a recession or not in order to make our economic situation better than reality. The traditional definition of a recession is being redefined. Historically, the definition of a recession has been two negative quarters of growth in the gross domestic production. In the first quarter of this year the GDP declined -1.16% and at the end of June the second quarter reading was -0.90%. We are by definition in a recession.
According to Tom Siomades , the chief investment officer of AE Wealth Management, the average recession has lasted on average six to twelve months since World War II. He states in recent commentary that we should be mindful of the possibility of another six months of negative economic growth.

Remember, we want three types of funds: Liquid, protected, and growth. Check out last week’s newsletter for a description of the three types of money.
We have become increasingly spoiled by the market popping back up after recent downturns like it did in 2020. This pop effect is due in large part to the government intervening in the markets to stabilize them. Now the government is on the other side of the table from investors.
Simodaes stated, “We are not seeming impetus for the market to come back up.” Why? Because if the government lowers interest rates or uses quantitative easing to create more new money, inflation runs away.
If you’ve lost money in the first half the year, brace yourself for the possibility of more losses. This may not be a bad thing if you’re properly allocated and have a plan in place. If you’re winging it right now though, you have reason to be concerned.

The government’s hands are tied with how much they can help the economy bounce back this time. This is a problem for folks who have gotten used to the market bouncing back and taking off for more growth. This may not happen this go around. It may take longer for the economy to right itself.
Adding lighter fluid to the issue is the Federal Reserve has not stated what it’ll do at its September meeting. They could give forward guidance as to where rates may go but they are not, which is driving market sentiment down. 
Investment advisory services offered only by duly registered individuals through AE Wealth Management, LLC (AEWM). AEWM and Clients Excel, LLC are not affiliated companies. Investing involves risk, including potential loss of principal. Any references to protection, safety, or lifetime income, generally refer to fixed insurance products, never securities or investments. Insurance guarantees are backed by the financial strength and claims paying abilities of the insuring carrier. This podcast is intended for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be used as the sole basis for financial decisions, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet particular needs of an individual’s situation. Clients Excel is not permitted to offer and no statement made during this show shall constitute tax or legal advice. Our firm is not affiliated with or endorsed by the U.S. Government or any governmental agency. The information and opinions contained herein provided by third parties have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed by Clients Excel. The use of logos and/or trademarks of podcast hosting sites are the property of their respective owners and are not an endorsement by those owners of our firm or our program.