The Dividend Cafe The Bahnsen Group

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3wbacib

Welcome to the new and improved Dividend Cafe. What you see today will be a weekly Dividend Cafe each and every Monday from yours truly, complete with a podcast and video. It has come for years now on Monday, once under the umbrella of “COVID & Markets” and after that under “The DC Today.” We are simply incubating it under Dividend Cafe, so there is just one list, one website, and one brand behind it all. You will note on the home page of Dividend Cafe that we are running a daily market recap that will include closing data every day along with key economic indicators. Additionally, we will be running an Ask TBG on that home page, where questions will be answered every day. Every Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday, that market recap with the podcast and an Ask TBG will be emailed to subscribers., And then Friday, the same weekly Dividend Cafe article we have always done (see next paragraph) will go, per usual. So check out the new Dividend Cafe, all its bells and whistles, and share feedback with us any time!

The Friday Dividend Cafe looked at the subject of contrarian investing, the state of the dollar, and a few thoughts on oil and politics, and the comedy of bitcoin as a “flight to safety” this last Friday. The written version is here (my favorite), the video is here, and the podcast is here.

Into the second quarter of 2024, it may be a good time to review our outlook entering 2024 and major themes as we continue through the year.

Off we go …

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JLnpSl

It has been an interesting week in the market, but as you will see in the first paragraph below it may seem like nothing happened whatsoever. That is more common than people think. Today we visit the state of the U.S. dollar, the “safe haven” of bitcoin, the politics of oil, the nature of contrarian investing, and more. Just a lot of easy-bite tidbits to edify you this beautiful spring weekend.

And before I remind you that a new and improved Dividend Cafe is coming any day, jump on in, to this Dividend Cafe!

Links mentioned in this episode:
TheDCToday.com
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3w8tK6R

Somewhat of a repeat of yesterdays market action with a positive morning failing to hold momentum and falling off into the close in more consolidation in markets around rates. We did eek out a small gain on the Dow, but the SP500 closed slightly lower for the fifth session in a row. The 2-YR Treasury is back to YTD highs at just under 5% and 10-YR was up 5 bps today to 4.63%. For what was on the docket today in the economic calendar, mostly good news. Jobless claims, existing home sales and manufacturing data all modestly ahead of expectations, but it just wasn’t enough to keep the momentum on the day. There isn’t a lot of economic news for the remainder of this week, and most eyes will be on the PCE figures out next Friday.

Links mentioned in this episode:
TheDCToday.com
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3TX5X1I

What started off as a positive trading morning, slid negative as the day progressed. Powell’s comments yesterday were debated as to whether he took his ‘Pivot’ from October back. Not to worry, because first, I don’t think he did take it back and two rate cuts are still priced in to Fed futures, and second, as I mentioned yesterday there is enough in the economy that is good at this time to withstand a delayed move lower in rates by a few months. The Fed’s beige book out today supported that general positive undertone in the economy which helped us off the lows of the day a few hours before closing as well.

Seeing as we all made our tax payments this week, yesterday we saw the US Government take in the most it ever has in tax collections from corporations and non withheld amounts at $155B. The previous high water mark was back in 2022 following a big year prior and reopening after the pandemic when the same April figure was $121B. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is expecting total tax receipts for the full year 2024 to come in right near that record level in 2022 at roughly $4.93T. This is good news for the budget deficit and the growth rate of Treasury bill issuance which is set to decline for the first time in two years, although still won’t put us any where near an actual budget surplus when we are talking about chipping away at a $2T deficit.

Links mentioned in this episode:
TheDCToday.com
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Q5001u

A mixed day of trading between positive and negative all morning and right into the market close with the Dow slightly higher and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq just below fair value. Rates continue their move higher, with the 10-year up 4 bps and now at the 4.66% level. So aside from what so far has been a tougher start to the second quarter, a few things to keep in mind:

Rates and Fed futures have reset higher based just as much on stronger-than-expected good things in the economy, such as earnings growth, GDP, and employment, as they have on inflation expectations.

We are still only 4% from all-time highs in the S&P 500 when the historical intra-year drawdown is more like 14% on average.
So, yes, markets are down a little here, and volatility is up with higher rates, but keep in mind this is pretty run-of-the-mill market consolidation at most at this point.

Links mentioned in this episode:
TheDCToday.com
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Q2J5g8

Against Doomsdayism

Where this Iran-Israel atrocity goes from here, what should and should not have been done, what and should not be done, what it will mean for markets and oil prices – all these things notwithstanding, the winner of the weekend appears to be anti-missile defense systems, first pursued by the Reagan administration in the 1980’s. The ability for this technology across multiple mediums to bat nearly a thousand in putting down missiles and drones coming in hot to do unspeakable damage is, well, vindicating. The specifics of the various technologies and strategies are fascinating, but for now, we celebrate those whose vision was to shoot down missiles and missiles, from ground and from air. Such military investment saves lives, and deserves our celebration.

Links mentioned in this episode:
TheDCToday.com
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com