Financial Insights Ford Financial Group

This week Brian discussed how both longer-term Treasury yields and short-term Treasury yields tend to decline during recessions, but the effect is larger and more consistent with short-term Treasuries.

Over the last eight recessions, the median maximum yield decline for the 3-month Treasury was 2.82% and 1.14% for the 10-year Treasury.

With an attractive yield compared to recent history and prospects of price appreciation if there were a recession, intermediate maturity Treasuries have a reasonable outlook on top of their potential diversification benefits if we were to see a downturn.

The prospect of a decline in yields makes shorter maturity Treasuries less attractive, as investors may need to reinvest at much lower rates when bonds mature.

Check out our old Yield Curve episode
Click here for a treasury yield chart



Music: Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source.

The Advisors of Ford Financial Group are a Registered Representatives with, and securities are offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Perennial Investment Advisors, a registered investment advisor. Perennial Investment Advisors and Ford Financial Group are separate entities from LPL Financial.

This material is for general info only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial professional prior to investing. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

Yesterday was the 100th trading day of 2023, and a productive 100 days for stocks it was. Through that 100th trading day on May 25, about 40% of the way through the year, the S&P 500 Index has gained a solid 8.1% (excluding dividends).

This week Brian discusses how that milestone on the calendar seems like a good time to look at what the strong start to the year might mean for the rest of 2023.

Chart: Strong Starts Lead to Strong Finishes
Music: Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source.

The Advisors of Ford Financial Group are a Registered Representatives with, and securities are offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Perennial Investment Advisors, a registered investment advisor. Perennial Investment Advisors and Ford Financial Group are separate entities from LPL Financial.

This material is for general info only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial professional prior to investing. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

This week Brian and Ryan talk about how time is running out for Congress to raise the debt ceiling. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned lawmakers that the government may not be able to service its debt by June 1.

The fixed income market continues to show signs of concern over a potential technical default. Credit default swap (CDS) rates for U.S. government debt have roughly doubled over the last month, while four-week Treasury bills auctioned at their highest discount on record last week.

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Tracking # 1-05369269
Music: Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source.

The Advisors of Ford Financial Group are a Registered Representatives with, and securities are offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Perennial Investment Advisors, a registered investment advisor. Perennial Investment Advisors and Ford Financial Group are separate entities from LPL Financial.

This material is for general info only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial professional prior to investing. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

Music: Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source.

The Advisors of Ford Financial Group are a Registered Representatives with, and securities are offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Perennial Investment Advisors, a registered investment advisor. Perennial Investment Advisors and Ford Financial Group are separate entities from LPL Financial.

This material is for general info only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial professional prior to investing. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

This week Brian and Ryan got together to review the long and short views on markets... what is going on right now and how worried should investors be in light of bank failures and a looming recession, and what happens when we pull the lens back and look at what markets do over much longer periods. The long and short views paint much different pictures.  
Music: Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source.

The Advisors of Ford Financial Group are a Registered Representatives with, and securities are offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Perennial Investment Advisors, a registered investment advisor. Perennial Investment Advisors and Ford Financial Group are separate entities from LPL Financial.

This material is for general info only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial professional prior to investing. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

With recession risks getting more attention in the wake of the FOMC minutes’ release, Brian highlights some important characteristics of market behavior around recessions and some unusual features of the current market if a recession were to be on the horizon. 


 Tracking # 1-05366963
Music: Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source.

The Advisors of Ford Financial Group are a Registered Representatives with, and securities are offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Perennial Investment Advisors, a registered investment advisor. Perennial Investment Advisors and Ford Financial Group are separate entities from LPL Financial.

This material is for general info only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial professional prior to investing. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.