200 episodes

The 538 team covers the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.

FiveThirtyEight Politics ABC News

    • News
    • 4.5 • 19.5K Ratings

The 538 team covers the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.

    The 3 Questions That Will Decide Trump's First Trial

    The 3 Questions That Will Decide Trump's First Trial

    Closing arguments have wrapped up in former President Donald Trump’s first criminal trial, where he is being accused of falsifying business records in connection to a hush money payment made to adult film actor Stormy Daniels during his 2016 presidential campaign. This marks the beginning of the end of the first criminal prosecution of a former American president, and the verdict could affect his future career in politics. In the latest installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen talks with Jessica Roth, a law professor and former federal prosecutor, to discuss the trial.
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    • 37 min
    Elections Everywhere All At Once

    Elections Everywhere All At Once

    It’s been a newsy week for elections here at home and across the pond. On Wednesday, in her first public appearance since dropping out of the Republican primary, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley said that she is going to vote for former President Donald Trump this fall.
    In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we ask whether her endorsement actually matters to voters. We also indulge in some British politics, with the announcement that the U.K. will hold general elections on July 4. The electoral picture for the Conservative Party is currently abysmal and they have six weeks to try to change it. And we check in on lessons from the downballot primaries that played out in Georgia and Oregon.
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    • 36 min
    Campaign Throwback: 'The Beer Question'

    Campaign Throwback: 'The Beer Question'

    This is the third installment of the 538 Politics podcast mini-series, “Campaign Throwback.” Across three episodes, we're taking a look back at campaign tropes from past elections such as, “it’s the economy, stupid,” or “soccer moms” or that question about which candidate you’d rather share a beer with. We’ll ask where those tropes came from, whether they were actually true at the time and if they still hold up today.
    In our third installment: "the beer question." After the 2000 and 2004 elections, political observers remarked that Republican George W. Bush defeated his Democratic opponents in part because he was the candidate who voters would rather "have a beer with." The phrase quickly became a cliche for evaluating a candidate's likability or relatability. But is it really how voters choose their presidents?
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    • 25 min
    Are Americans Tuning Out The 2024 Election?

    Are Americans Tuning Out The 2024 Election?

    It’s no secret that we are headed toward a presidential election that many Americans said they didn’t want. Somewhere in the range of 20 percent of Americans have an unfavorable view of both former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, and if ratings are any indication, a lot of folks seem to be tuning campaign news out.
    So what does this portend for turnout? We’ve been in an era of high-turnout elections since 2016, but will fatigue or disdain keep people home this fall? In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew debates what kind of turnout we should expect and why it matters. They also discuss why Biden and Trump decided to go forward with two earlier-than-usual debates.
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    • 38 min
    Why Voters Are Worried About Democracy, In Their Own Words

    Why Voters Are Worried About Democracy, In Their Own Words

    Concerns about democracy are central to the 2024 election. Late last year, Gallup recorded a record low number of Americans who said they are satisfied with the way democracy is working. And in the latest polling from The New York Times/Siena College, 14 percent of voters said the economic and political system needs to be torn down entirely, while 55 percent said it needs major changes.
    To better understand how Americans are thinking about democracy heading into the election, 538 teamed up with PerryUndem, a nonpartisan research firm, to conduct focus groups with voters. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we hear from those voters. We also speak with Gretchen Helmke of Bright Line Watch, which conducts regular polling of experts and Americans on the potential threats to democracy.
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    • 39 min
    Campaign Throwback: 'Soccer Moms'

    Campaign Throwback: 'Soccer Moms'

    This is the second installment of the 538 Politics podcast mini-series, “Campaign Throwback.” Across three episodes, we're taking a look back at campaign tropes from past elections such as, “it’s the economy, stupid,” or “soccer moms” or that question about which candidate you’d rather share a beer with. We’ll ask where those tropes came from, whether they were actually true at the time and if they still hold up today.
    In our second installment: "soccer moms." In 1992, Bill Clinton won the presidential election in what was called the "year of the woman" after a record number of women ran for office and won. As the 1996 election took shape, gender politics were still at the forefront of campaign coverage. As Clinton’s popularity was growing and Dole was lagging in the early polls, the idea took hold that “soccer moms” might either save Dole’s chances or ensure that Clinton made it over the edge. But when the election was all said and done, was that conventional wisdom correct?
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    • 29 min

Customer Reviews

4.5 out of 5
19.5K Ratings

19.5K Ratings

Cockiest1 2001 ,

Great Show

Regarding Biden’s challenge with inflation, it comes down to household economics. Biden comes off as tone deaf to economic challenges facing middle income voters. Abstract ideas like unemployment rate and GDP mean nothing to most of us when faced with exorbitant housing costs and grocery expenses twice to what we knew pre-covid. I’m a physician making $260K a year, and even I feel it. While Trump doesn’t personally know what it’s like for the middle class, he has a lighter load to carry as the guy people remember for better times. For some reason, people see everything that happened during the covid years as a mulligan. Trump faces little accountability for his blunders, and Biden receives none of the praise for turning things around. Likewise, Trump is a professional showman who will always win out against Biden when it comes to making people feel heard. Please discuss further on the show if any of this resonates with you. Also, if anyone in Biden camp is listening, encourage him to trade his suit for overalls and airforce for a cross country bus. He needs to rub more elbows at the grocery store and spend less time talking stats with Janet Yellen. Of course, maybe that’s too much to ask of an octogenarian with another full time job, but that’s what I think. Ted from San Antonio

King Triumph ,

538 has really gone downhill

This used to be a superb podcast, but it's steadily gone downhill since Nate Silver left. It's devolved into a bunch of random "games" and incipid political punditry where the hosts and guests would rather laugh off the dangerous trends in our politics than provide useful and insightful information.

kimba2662251 ,

Why voters are worried

Weaponization of the judicial system against political opponents by the Democratic Party is unfair and Gretchen cannot understand how we feel. Your podcast is extremely biased against conservatives.

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