Forward Guidance Blockworks
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The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Jack Farley interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.
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Joseph Wang, Michael Howell, Julian Brigden, and Jonny Matthews on 2024 Macro Outlook | Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (Recorded March 19, 2024)
Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more.
VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/
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This is a recorded version of Jack’s macro panel at the 2024 Digital Asset Summit hosted by Blockworks, recorded in London on March 19, 2024. Macro analysts (and previous Forward Guidance guests) Joseph Wang of FedGuy.com, Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital, Julian Brigden of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, and Jonny Matthews of SuperMacro (ex-Brevan Howard) share their outlook on the global economy, stocks, bonds, currencies, and Bitcoin.
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Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12
Joseph’s work https://fedguy.com/
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Julian’s work https://t.co/qdroC4L86V
Follow Michael Howell on Twitter https://twitter.com/crossbordercap
Michael’s work https://www.crossbordercapital.com/
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Jonny’s work https://super-macro.com/
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:18) Will Stocks Continue To Crush Bonds?
(07:24) U.S. Economy Continues To Outperform Rest Of World
(12:37) Financial Conditions Are Very Loose Despite Fed's Rapid Rise In Interest Rates
(17:52) VanEck Ad
(22:57) Michael Howell: Liquidity Is Continuing To Rise
(30:17) Interest Rates And The Dollar
(31:47) Views On Crypto
(38:33) Concluding Prediction On Stocks Bonds And Bitcoin
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Russell Napier On The Rise And Fall Of The Age Of Debt And China’s Choice Between Deflation and Devaluation
Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more.
VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/
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Russell Napier, founder of Orlock Advisors and publisher of The Solid Ground Newsletter, returns to Forward Guidance to share how China’s decision to peg its currency the Chinese Yuan in 1994 at an artificially low rate had enormous consequences on world’s monetary system, and why China may be soon be forced to make a monetary policy decision regarding its currency which may have similarly large consequences for the globe. Filmed on March 13, 2024. Russell is the author of two books, “Anatomy of a Bear Market: Lessons from Wall Street's four great bottoms” and “The Asian Financial Crisis 1995-1998 And The Birth Of The Age of Debt.”
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Russell Napier’s newsletter, The Solid Ground: https://russellnapier.co.uk/
Russell’s first book, “Anatomy of a Bear Market: Lessons from Wall Street's four great bottoms”: https://www.amazon.com/Anatomy-Bear-Lessons-Streets-bottoms/dp/0857195220/?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_w=JKHqA&content-id=amzn1.sym.cf86ec3a-68a6-43e9-8115-04171136930a&pf_rd_p=cf86ec3a-68a6-43e9-8115-04171136930a&pf_rd_r=144-7804338-9176020&pd_rd_wg=QZHz8&pd_rd_r=bb8adee9-1ab7-4906-bfc2-cf8c13a39d25&ref_=aufs_ap_sc_dsk
Russell Napier’s second book, “The Asian Financial Crisis 1995-1998 And The Birth Of The Age of Debt”: https://www.amazon.com/Asian-Financial-Crisis-1995-98-Birth/dp/0857199145/?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_w=JKHqA&content-id=amzn1.sym.cf86ec3a-68a6-43e9-8115-04171136930a&pf_rd_p=cf86ec3a-68a6-43e9-8115-04171136930a&pf_rd_r=144-7804338-9176020&pd_rd_wg=QZHz8&pd_rd_r=bb8adee9-1ab7-4906-bfc2-cf8c13a39d25&ref_=aufs_ap_sc_dsk
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:52) How To Spot A Change In Monetary Policy
(03:50) Birth Of The Age Of Debt
(08:43) Chinese Surpluses Are Getting Smaller
(14:10) China's Choice Between Deflation Or Devaluation
(18:23) China's Growth Requires Massive Expansion In Narrow Money
(27:10) VanEck Ad
(27:53) Is China The Biggest Real Estate Bubble Ever?
(30:35) PBOC Likely To Move To Flexible Exchange Rate In Order To Achieve Their Goals In Controlling Price And Quantity of Money
(33:53) Is Foreign Lending Contingent Upon U.S. Dollar Reserves?
(36:29) The Origin of The Chinese Stock Market In 1992
(39:11) Valuations of China's Stock Market
(41:33) Buy Cheap Currencies, Not Cheap Companies
(54:11) Napier's Views On Japanese Currency And Stock Market
(58:51) The Lessons Of Quantitative Easing (QE)
(01:01:27) The Future of Japanese Monetary Policy
(01:03:10) The Interest Rate Shock Has Not Broken Something. Why? Will This Continue?
(01:06:16) Are Higher Interest Rates Deflationary Or Inflationary?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Dr. Ingo Sauer on Hyperinflation, Central Bank Insolvency, and The ECB (European Central Bank)
Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more.
VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/
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Dr. Ingo Sauer of Goethe University Frankfurt joins Forward Guidance to share findings from his 360 paper on Hyperinflation in 1923 and its connection to central bank insolvency. Sauer argues that severe impairment of central bank assets, and not the printing of vast amounts of central bank liabilities (money), was the primary cause of extreme inflation witnessed 101 years ago in Germany, Austria, Hungary and Poland. Sauer inverts the causal line of exchange rate depreciation, money supply increase, and inflation, and he also shares his concern about the current state of the balance sheet of the European Central Bank (ECB). Filmed on March 5, 2024.
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Ingo Sauer’s YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@wissenhatkeineneigentumeri9889
Ingo Sauer’s 360 page paper, “The Lessons from 1923 for the Euro Area: Enlightening the Dark Side of (In-) Solvent Central Banks’ Balance Sheets”: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4620462
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:56) Overview Of Dr. Sauer's Theory On The Ultimate Cause of Hyperinflation: Central Bank Insolvency
(07:05) Dr. Sauer's Concerns About The Euro
(11:22) Setting The Stage For German Hyperinflation in 1923
(14:33) The German Mark During World War I
(21:40) The Assets Of The Reichsbank Increasingly Became Dominated By German Government Obligations (Not Commercial Bills / Collateral Advances / Gold)
(30:03) Central Bank Insolvency (Not Money Supply Increase) Caused Hyperinflation in 1923
(34:53) VanEck Ad
(36:48) Failed Attempts To Stabilize German Mark And Inflation, 1919-1922
(41:44) Reichsbank's Holdings Of German Treasury Bills Highly Correlated To (In)Solvency Factor
(45:01) Explaining Sauer's "Solvency Factor"
(47:29) The Mark's Short-Lived Rally In 1920
(51:10) Marker
(57:09) The Mechanics Of Central Bank Insolvency
(59:40) Reichsmark Insolvency Led To Depreciation Of The Mark, Which Led To Hyperinflation
(01:02:34) Money Supply Did Not Cause Hyperinflation, Argues Sauer
(01:15:09) The Explosion In Reichsbank's Money Supply Was Mostly Paper Cash, Not Bank Reserves
(01:23:03) Reparations' Impact On German Solvency
(01:27:22) The Rentenmark And The Halting Of German HyperInflation
(01:30:47) Central Bank Profits and Yield Curve Dynamics
(01:34:58) European Debt Crisis (2009-2015)
(01:36:45) Fed As Dealer Of Last Resort, European Central Bank (ECB) As Market Maker Of Last Resort
(01:38:06) ECB Is Less A Central Bank And More Of A "Headquarters" For Domestic Euro Central Banks (such as Bank of France, for example)
(01:40:23) Origin Of Fed, And Clearinghouse Loan Certificates As National Currency Before The Fed
(01:44:18) Why Has ECB Balance Sheet Expansion Post 2008 Coincided With Disinflation (Or Deflation), And Not Hyperinflation?
(01:47:44) Sauer's Fears About The ECB And The Euro
(02:00:46) The Mechanics Of Monetary Financing
(02:18:32) Interest Rate Risk Is Not A Systemic Concern
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Nick Halaris: Commercial Real Estate Hanging In There Despite "Crushing" Interest Rate Shock
Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more.
VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/
Nick Halaris, President of Metros Capital, returns to Forward Guidance to update viewers on real estate situation in the U.S. Though the rapid rise in interest rates has rendered many commercial real estate (CRE) deals uneconomic, the fundamentals in multi-family (i.e. apartments) remain strong, notes Halaris, in part due to high levels of immigration. Nonetheless, many new deals are being done at “negative leverage” - that is to say, the cost of debt exceeds the cap rate on the deal and the property’s cash flows are less than the interest expense. Halaris thinks the sell-off in office might be so bad that the asset class might have bottomed out. He remains very bullish on the single-family housing market. Filmed on March 12, 2024.
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Follow Nick Halaris on Twitter https://twitter.com/NickHalaris
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Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:47) Overview of Commercial Real Estate
(04:24) Multifamily (Apartment Buildings) Have Been Stronger Than Expected
(06:49) Immigration As A Tailwind For Housing & Multifamily Demand
(08:43) Projects Are Being Cancelled Because Of High Rates
(11:09) Interest Rate Shock Has Rendered Many Deals Uneconomic
(18:58) Potential Value In Office Sector Of Commercial Real Estate (CRE)?
(22:22) Nick's Long-Term Bull Thesis For Real Estate
(26:25) VanEck Ad
(27:11) CRE's Impact On The U.S. Banking System
(29:31) Interestingly, Private Credit Funding Has Not Gotten More Expensive
(31:28) Nick Is Flipping A House To Stay Busy (Do Not Do This At Home)
(34:12) Housing Bull Market Is Fundamentally Different From 2003-2006... Not Speculative Bubble (I.E. Buying To Flip)
(38:18) New York Community Bank (NYCB)
(59:03) Final Thoughts On Valuation Difference Between Public and Private Real Estate Markets
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Liz Ann Sonders: There's No Such Thing As A Typical Interest Rate Cutting Cycle
Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more.
VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/
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Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, returns to Forward Guidance to share her investment outlook on U.S. equities. Sonders notes that a handful of large cap stocks have been leading the S&P 500 index higher, while the majority of stocks have been underperforming the index. While this so-called “breadth weakness” occurred at or near stock market peaks of 1999 and 2000, Sonders notes that breadth is strengthening. The phrase “Magnificent 7” is near-meaningless since, as of mid-March, the Mag7 includes both the best performing stock in the S&P 500 (Nvidia) and the worst performing stock (Tesla). Sonders argues that there is no such thing as a “typical” Fed interest rate cutting cycle, and that slower cutting cycles have tended to coincide alongside more bullish stock market action than fast cutting cycles. Filmed on March 4, 2024.
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Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-londonTimestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:24) The Rally In S&P 500 Has Been Ferocious, The Rally In Average Stocks Has Not
(04:22) Large Cap Stocks Are Leading The S&P 500 Higher... Smaller Names Have Performed Less Well
(09:31) Earnings Growth Is Very Strong (Unlike In 2000)
(12:16) Companies' Earnings Guidance Is Less Specific Than Pre-2020
(16:47) Economic Outlook In U.S.: Rolling Re-acceleration
(20:13) Labor Market Situation Has Been "Mirror Image" Of What Normally Happens
(22:05) This Economic Cycle Has Been An "Orange" Compared To History's "Apples"
(22:29) VanEck Ad
(24:53) There Is No Such Thing As A "Typical" Fed Rate Cutting Cycle
(30:57) Slower Cutting Cycles Have Been Somewhat More Bullish Than Rapid Cutting Cycles
(36:27) Artificial Intelligence (AI)
(43:17) Quality As A Factor
(45:39) Momentum Has Been "Best Performing Factor Year-To-Date"
(49:37) Size and Value As Factors
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
The Fate Of The Fed's Balance Sheet | Lou Crandall & Joseph Wang on Draining of Reverse Repo (RRP) Facility, Timeline of QT Taper, and 2024 Tax Refund Data
Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more.
VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/
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Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12
Follow Lou Crandall on Twitter https://twitter.com/Fedwatcher
Joseph's piece on Real Rates: https://fedguy.com/higher-real-rates-for-longer/
More about Wrightson ICAP: https://www.wrightson.com/
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Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:40) Reverse Repo Decline Driven By A) Decline In Fed's Balance Sheet And B) Increased Supply Of Treasury Bills And C) Private Repo Market Demand
(05:45) The Liquidity Demands Of The Basis Trade (Long Cash Treasurys / Short Treasury Futures) Is Drawing Money Out Of Fed's Reverse Repo (RRP) Facility
(12:40) VanEck Ad
(13:22) Lou's Accurate Prediction On Why Fed's Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) Would Not Be Renewed (It Wasn't)
(17:10) Fed's Balance Sheet Policy: Quantitative Tightening (QT)
(25:30) Summary From Jack
(27:01) Money Market Data Could Indicate QT Will Continue For Longer
(28:28) DAS Ad
(33:14) Interest Rate Outlook On Fed Cutting Cycle
(37:17) Inflation And Real Interest Rates
(43:43) Potential Government Shutdown In U.S.??
(46:33) Tax Season Approaches! The Plumbing Of Refunds
(49:31) Joseph's Closing Thoughts On U.S. Fiscal Situation
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Отзывы покупателей
Top Shelf Financial and Interest Rates Related Podcast
Excellent format with the focus kept on the core content and analysis from top quality interview guests. Few unnecessary frills, all “meat and potatoes” so to speak.
Le shrub
Almost as bright as macro Alf.
Fantastic in every way
What a great in depth podcast. Jack Farley is a magnificent interviewer and he has very interesting guests. Highly recommended.