Groundhog Strait: Hormuz, LNG and prolonged uncertainty

Energy Flux founder Seb Kennedy is joined by pod partner Victor Ponsford to discuss the latest diplomatic developments in the US-Iran war, ongoing tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, and impacts on energy markets.

They explore modelling scenarios from the Energy Flux Hormuz Closure LNG Supply Impact Model, which quantifies whether and when the new wave of global LNG projects might offset lost Qatari and UAE capacity that's stuck behind the Hormuz chokepoint.

The discussion concludes with breaking news about Donald Trump's last-minute 'TACO' extension of the ceasefire, and the likelihood of a continued stalemate in this unenviable geopolitical situation.

Takeaways

• Ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz impact energy markets
• Modeling scenarios provide insights into future LNG supply
• Listeners can vote on the most likely Hormuz outcome
• Diplomatic stalemate leads to continued uncertainty

Chapters

• 00:00 Introduction and Catching Up with Mad Markets
• 05:29 Configuring the Hormuz Model and Scenarios
• 17:10 Deep Uncertainty and Market Failure
• 36:33 Three Scenarios for the Future - Vote for your favourite
• 44:00 Breaking News and Continued Stalemate

Links

1. Hormuz Closure LNG Supply Impact Model
2. Deep Dive explaining model scenarios
3. Hormuz model YouTube tutorial
4. Listener poll: vote for your favourite scenario (or describe your own)