Heavy Industry and the Energy Transition: From Mining inputs and Coal, to Green Iron and Steel projects

Recorded 18th April 2026: This week we explore the forces reshaping heavy industry in the energy transition — from the role of of coal in global power systems to the rapidly evolving race to build low-carbon steel.

In this episode:

• What the latest data says about global coal demand
• Why mining costs are rising - and how producers are responding
• The financing and technology choices shaping new green steel plants
• How renewable energy availability is reorganizing industrial supply chains
• Why geopolitical risk is becoming a core variable in industrial investment

We unpack new data from Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air which shows coal use has remained flat, examine rising mining input costs, and discuss how economics, infrastructure, and geopolitics are beginning to determine where the next generation of industrial facilities will be built.

Coal India Limited warns of rising supply chain costs because of increases in explosives costs (driven by gas prices) and diesel for mine trucks (driven by oil prices). While the stated cost rises were high (26% and 54% respectively), the impact on overall coal costs in India is muted, less than 2% of costs. The state-controlled company has promised to insulate consumers from these price shocks and it can do so with a large profit margin cushion. This slightly reduces the incentive to switch to clean energy. Other miners may have to pass these cost increases on, for coal and other commodities, which could raise prices if there are fewer substitutes.

Stegra (formerly H2 Green Steel) secured €1.4 billion in additional financing to complete construction of its flagship steel plant in northern Sweden — the first new steel mill in Europe in decades. The project reflects the practical reality that hydrogen infrastructure at industrial scale is still emerging. The financing underscores both the scale of investment required for industrial decarbonization and the importance of secure long-term demand contracts in making these projects bankable.

SuSteel Namibia successfully demonstrated hydrogen-based iron production at an industrially relevant scale, marking a major step beyond pilot projects. The development highlights a broader shift in the steel value chain: energy-intensive processing is beginning to move to regions with abundant, low-cost renewable power. Rather than exporting hydrogen, Namibia is positioning itself to export higher-value intermediate products like direct reduced iron, capturing more industrial value locally.

Proposed green iron projects in the Middle East are now facing increased uncertainty as geopolitical tensions raise shipping, insurance, and financing risks. Despite having some of the world’s lowest-cost energy and strong industrial infrastructure, the region’s risk profile is beginning to influence investment decisions. The story illustrates a growing reality for the energy transition: energy price alone is no longer decisive — reliability and geopolitical stability are becoming equally critical to project economics.