World of Oil Derivatives Greg Newman

Off the back of another tense week with the recent attacks by Iran on Israel, Greg, Jorge, James and Martha discuss the impact (or, lack thereof) the event had on oil prices. As a bonus for this episode, Jorge and Martha will provide a trade idea each! 
There was a muted response for Brent futures, with prices oscillating around $90/bbl, opening on Monday at $90/bbl and closing at $90.50/bbl. Looking at the CFTC report, the market is quite long - especially by managed by money players.
The refinery margins have increased week on week, but mostly due to a weakened dated crude market. Gasoline continues to rally after a bit of a dip last week. The European gasoline market seems stubbornly long.
James’ one to watch this week is the continued dollar strength and higher U.S. yields - which are breaking equity market momentum, with gold making continued new all-time highs.
Aside from the major story of the Iran retaliation attack on Israel, in our Googling Oil segment, the team discus the new regulations in Nigeria which will require oil producers to sell crude to domestic refineries.
Martha’s trade idea this week is propane - selling the LST/FEI in May. Jorge also shares his trade idea, the WTI to Dubai Spread - which Jorge thinks will widen as Dubai crude powers ahead in Asia.
You can watch the LST/FEI trade idea in further detail here: https://youtu.be/8sKmB_ymD8I
If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Jorge Montepeque: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jorge-montepeque-38410bb6/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
Chapters for this episode are: 
0:00 Welcome 
1:16 This week in trading 
9:12 Macro market news 
15:20 CTA positioning
16:49 Refinery margins 
19:38 "Googling oil:" world oil news 
24:11 Trade idea of the week 
28:47 Poll results 
29:48 "Fiscal entrapment"

Prices were around $89/bbl last week, but since then there's been a noticeable uptick - not quite reaching $92/bbl and oscillating around $90/bbl since. Refinery margins have weakened, with refined products struggling - with the exception of gasoline. Gasoil is extremely weak, with poor distillate performance in all regions. 
EBOB has seen greater strength with the market keen to buy into last week's weakness. Looking to our macro news segment, James unpacks the latest headlines shaking up financial markets. A significant move ensued yesterday (Wednesday 10th April) following yet another robust CPI print. Notably, 2-year bond yields surged a staggering 23 basis points, marking a substantial 4.6% increase on the day. 
Concurrently, the dollar strengthened by over 1%, sending equities futures tumbling by 1.4% on the open. The Federal Reserve finds itself in a delicate position after adopting a dovish stance in Q4 2023, with the Overnight Index Swap (OIS) now pricing in just 42 basis points of cuts this year. As commodities face headwinds amidst tighter financial conditions and a stronger dollar, James, Greg and Martha analyse the implications for investors and the broader economic landscape. 
The trade idea for this week is to short the May/Jun C3 CP spread. You can watch this trade idea in further detail here: https://youtu.be/8N2bNTOYOqc
If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/


Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome 
1:43 This week in trading 
5:58 Macro market news 
25:00 Refinery margins 
34:04 Ones to watch
41:43 Poll results and outro

Brent Futures have made a notable climb since last week, hitting $89/bbl on Tuesday morning. It's crucial to analyse the impact of recent developments on oil demand. Notably, both China and the USA have seen expansions in manufacturing activity, marking significant milestones. What has been the impact of headlines regarding tighter supply and the possible contagion of geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East?
Examining the refinery margin, we observed a supportive trend in the Dated market. However, product stagnation ahead of Easter also weighed down on the margin. EBOB and gasoil have experienced declines week-on-week, signalling potential shifts in market dynamics.
Macro news headlines paint a picture of resilience and growth, with manufacturing data showing surprising strength from both China and the U.S. The inflation outlook remains stable, with no concerns stemming from recent U.S. PCE data. Additionally, the US Dollar and gold continue their upward trajectory, while equities display a remarkable bullish trend reminiscent of 1989. Key data releases to watch out for this week include European CPI on Wednesday and U.S. payrolls on Friday, which could offer valuable insights into future market movements.
In our "Googling Oil" segment the team focus on Mexico's decision to halt some oil exports, which could significantly impact the global market. Pemex has cancelled contracts to supply its flagship Maya crude oil to refiners in the US, Europe, and Asia. This strategic move aims to prioritize domestic gasoline and diesel production ahead of the June 2 presidential election. With Mexico typically exporting around 600,000 barrels a day of Maya crude oil, this decision reverberates across the oil landscape, highlighting the intricate balance between geopolitical strategies and market dynamics.
The Trade Idea for this week is to buy the May/Jun DFL roll. You can watch this trade idea in further detail here: https://youtu.be/CVHxPCROTV0
If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman:     https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Vincent Wu:  https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Martha Dowding:  https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
James Brodie:  https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/

Chapters for this episode are: 
0:00 Welcome
0:39 This week in trading
4:42 Macro market news 
8:11 Refinery margins 
11:35 Russian oil/refineries 
13:53 Light ends
15:47 Ones to watch
23:10 "Googling oil:" world oil news 
29:20 Trade idea of the week 
33:35 Poll results and outro

Brent futures surged to $87.70 last week, only to encounter resistance and profit-taking flows, settling this week at a sturdy $85-86/bbl range. Macroeconomic factors and persistent supply concerns are pivotal in sustaining these levels.
Refinery margins face widespread pressure across regions, while the gasoil market sentiment remains subdued amidst spring demand and increased freight, notably from the Middle East to Europe and Asia. Yet, amidst these challenges, there's a glimmer of hope for correction as demand dynamics evolve.


Looking to the more macro side of things, James Brodie discusses the sudden dovish stance adopted by central banks and SNB's surprising 25bp cut to the cautious rhetoric of the Fed and Bank of England regarding bond/OIS curves.


In our 'Googling Oil' segment, Greg, Vincent, Martha, and James explore intriguing headlines, including the milestone of the USA surpassing all nations in oil and gas production and Ukraine's strategic use of long-range strike drones against Russia's oil industry.


Vincent presents a compelling trade idea: shorting the summer crack, which Greg dubbed 'The Widow Maker.' Tune in as Greg, Martha, Vincent and James dissect, analyse, and forecast the fascinating developments in the oil market landscape.


If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/

Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome 
0:57 This Week in Trading
6:47 Macro market news 
10:41 Dated Brent
12:56 Refinery margins
18:08 Gasoline
22:06 "Googling oil:" world oil news 
28:25 Trade idea of the week 
32:14 Brent spreads
34:13 Poll results and outro

In another episode of our Onyx Leadership series, Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Co-Head of Light Ends, Jasper Bird.
Jasper and Greg shed light on the realities of being a Trader, how egos can play a part in trading, and uncover the inner workings of a trader's mentality.
They delve into the highs and lows of trading and the challenges of maintaining social and entertainment balance as you age in the industry.
With over 6 years of experience at Onyx Capital Group, Jasper opens up about his journey into trading, his evolution within the company, and the resilient mindset necessary not only to survive but to thrive in the fast-paced world of trading and beyond.
#oott #oil #oilandgas #markets #trading #finance #derivatives #investing #advice #careers #leadership 

Chapters for this episode are: 
0:00 Welcome and introduction
1:09 Jasper's career & getting into trading
3:25 Naphtha market
13:28 The mind of a trader 
19:30 Ego and trading
25:46 Trading culture and burnout
30:37 Looking to the future

With Group CEO Greg Newman abroad, Light Ends Direct Trader James Todd steps up to host World of Oil Derivatives for another market update episode. 
Since last week, Brent Futures price rallied from sub $83/bbl this week to over $87.50/bbl yesterday. The breakout from its previous range came on the back of a flurry of bullish headlines - including drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, draws in both crude and gasoline inventories in the US, and positive Chinese economic data. 
Looking to the refinery margin, there was strength across all products, outweighing the rally in the flat price last week, so the refinery margin saw a small increase. 
James Brodie weighs in to comment on macro-economic trends. The bank of Japan hiked rates for the first time in seventeen years. US inflation is not coming down as quickly as it is in Europe, and the CPI is still just above 3%. This presents a slight concern for the Fed. 
Vincent leads our "Googling Oil" segment, and the team discuss the big news stories of the week, including recent drone attacks on Russian refineries and how they were able rebuild and be up and running in a day. 
The trade idea this week is to buy the Q2’24 NWE Jet diff. If you would like a further explanation of the trade idea for this week, you can watch it here: https://youtu.be/oozORbGjZsA
If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
James Todd: https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-t-693967a9/
Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/

Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome
1:38 Brent flat price & this week in trading
10:27 Refinery margins
18:18 Macro market news 
22:12 "Googling oil:" world oil news
32:39 Trade idea of the week
36:52 Poll results and outro