How AI is changing software M&A valuation | Dr. Ashkan Kalantary (Lincoln International)

In this episode of Future of Deals, Benedikt sits down with Dr. Ashkan Kalantary, who covers software M&A at Lincoln International, to talk about how AI has reset the rules for how software companies get valued.

Ashkan has spent over a decade at the intersection of technology, valuation, and M&A, with stops at PwC, KPMG, and TCG (later acquired by Lincoln International). He walks through what he calls the "SaaS apocalypse," the shift where buyers now screen for AI defensibility before they even look at traditional SaaS metrics like ARR growth or net dollar retention.

What we cover:

• Why buyers now check for AI defensibility first: regulatory moats, systems of record, proprietary data, before anything else
• The three buckets the software market has split into: AI-native winners, defensible incumbents with time to adapt, and a "no deal" category of tools an LLM can easily replicate
• The Diamant Software deal, and what a three-year relationship with the founders shows about what still can't be automated
• Why Ashkan and his team can now run four deals in parallel instead of two or three, without working longer hours
• What AI still can't do: negotiation, building trust, and reading the room

Trust stays the real differentiator in M&A, even as AI takes over more of the deliverables. Every process still gets built around the people in it, and Ashkan is open to hearing from founders thinking about a sale or people early in their careers who want to get into M&A advisory (reach out to him on LinkedIn).

Future of Deals is Jamie's podcast about how the best dealmakers actually operate. Hosted by Benedikt Böringer, Jamie's CEO.