Lagniappe Stokes Family Office

The guys once again turn their attention to Jerome Powell, Janet Yellen, and what the Fed will do in the wake of the recent bank failures. They dive into the global effects of those collapses including what happened with Credit Suisse and then look at what we can learn from the cyclical nature of human behavior.


Key Takeaways

[03:59] - How do banks actually work?

[09:09] - How does the government determine what banks are “important”?

[10:50] - What happened with Credit Suisse?

[18:49] - Lessons learned from the repetition of human behavior



Quotes
“Banks are not going to want to loan in this environment with the fear that people may have a run on their bank too. They may be the next dominant fall. Lending is just going to be a little bit more stringent in this environment, which curbs economic growth because we're a credit-based society; businesses [and individuals] borrow money to invest and grow.” - Doug Stokes
“Just from a macro standpoint, even though it was absolutely a bailout in terms of those two bank failures, the system on the whole would have really experienced a lot of stress. So even though it was a bailout, I think it probably was necessary to avert a bigger crisis.”  - Greg Stokes


Links

Axios: Feds Raise Rates Again, Despite Bank Failures

CNBC: Credit Suisse-USB, A Financial Banana Republic

Truflation

WSJ: Yellen Says U.S. Could Move to Protect Deposits at Other Banks

Reuters: Bill Hwang’s History With Credit Suisse

WSJ: JPMorgan Bought Nickel That Turned Out to Be Stones

The World’s Oldest Complaint Letter

Just Keep Buying by Nick Maggiulli

David Senra: Lessons from Dinner With Charlie Munger



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Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office



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Disclosure
The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

No doubt, you’ve heard about the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. But do you know how it happened? Or why? Greg and Doug Stokes give these answers and more about how the government stepped in and what the biggest bank crash since 2008 means for the economy moving forward.


Key Takeaways

[01:41] - How the demise of Silicon Valley Bank really started in the COVID era

[06:24] - What a bank run looks like in the technological age

[11:28] - Where will the Fed go from here?

[18:01] - A look at current CPI and Trueflation numbers



Quotes
“This all just leads me to believe that a prudent strategic asset allocation approach and not trying to jump in and out is even more important nowadays because It seems like information, as quickly as it gets across the wires, prices move so quickly that somebody attempting to jump in and out of the market and saying, ‘look, I'm going to take a break until things settle down.’ It's almost impossible to do that nowadays because everything just bounces around so quickly.” - Doug Stokes
“It seems as of now, that things have chilled out, and the markets are positive now that CPI numbers have come out. But the interesting thing is what the Fed does. In terms of raising rates, they raise until something breaks, is the saying. And obviously, something broke.”  - Greg Stokes


Links

Forbes: What to Know About the Biggest Bank Failure Since 2008

WSJ: Social-Media Postings Amplify Anxiety Over SVB Collapse

Barney Frank Was on the Board of Failed Signature Bank

Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist - JP Morgan

Antetokounmpo Had Money in 50 Banks Until Bucks Owner Helped Him Invest



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Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office



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Disclosure
The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

This week’s guest is Jim Cobb, a New Orleans defense attorney and the author of the award-winning book, Flood of Lies: The St. Rita's Nursing Home Tragedy. Jim won two high-profile cases defending the owners of nursing homes in St. Bernard, LA and Hollywood Hills, FL. The trio discusses these trials, the state of today’s judicial system, and even Jim’s under-the-radar New Orleans restaurant recommendation. 

Key Takeaways

[02:23] - How Jim was inspired — as an attorney — by the Boston Massacre story

[04:32] - The power of government and money in the U.S. justice system

[09:57] - The mob mentality & political outcry after nursing home tragedies in LA & FL

[16:54] - The probability of more weather-related tragedies

[19:29] - How money factors into being a defendant

[23:52] - The process of screening cases based on “win-ability”

[25:58] - Why it’s harder to defend someone you know is innocent


Quotes
[05:39] - “The only thing written on the front of the Supreme Court is ‘equal justice under law’. That's their motto. That's our motto. Let me suggest to you folks that there's nothing equal about the justice that is dispensed in this country. The only thing that gets you close to equal justice is if you’ve got a lot of money.” - Jim Cobb  

Links

Jim Cobb

Flood of Lies: The St. Rita's Nursing Home Tragedy

What Happened at St. Rita’s Nursing Home?

St. Rita’s Nursing Home Owners Acquitted

Judge Tosses Case Against Administrator in Hollywood Hills Nursing Home Trial

N7


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Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office


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Disclosure
The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Back in the studio, the Stokes Brothers catch up after the Mardi Gras break. They examine why bad economic news is good news for the market and vice versa, and why the real estate market across the country has come to an abrupt halt.

Key Takeaways

[00:22] - Good news is bad news for the market and bad news is good news

[05:28] - Is now the right time to lock in long-term bonds?

[08:09] - A deep dive into the current real estate market

[16:38] - Tales from the slopes during Mardi Gras break


Quotes
[01:25] - “Interest rates are moving around like crazy at this point, and that's just the market trying to figure out where this is ultimately going to land with the Federal Reserve. I'm still in the camp that we're going to see continued declines in inflation.” - Doug Stokes  
[12:40] - “My sort of base case is that there's just not going to be a whole lot of activity in housing, and either we're going to have sort of a sideways market in housing until rents sort of catch up, or maybe we have a decline in interest rates, which decreases that affordability gap. But as it currently stands, there's just a massive gap between what you can afford in rent versus the comparable house to buy. So no houses are affordable at this point.” - Doug Stokes  

Links


Truflation 

Scott Grannis - Calafia Beach Pundit

Goldman Sachs: 99% of borrowers have a mortgage rate lower than the current market rate

Nick Timiraos - U.S. home prices fell 5.4% at an annualized rate over the Jul-Dec period

Bill McBride - Weekly Active Inventory Up 67% YoY; New Listings Down 16% YoY

Cullen Roche - Has Housing Bottomed


Connect with our hosts

Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office


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Disclosure
The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

In this week’s episode, the guys welcome on Rob Koyfman, CEO and co-founder of Koyfin. His company offers live market data and powerful analytical tools in a modern, intuitive format.
Rob, an expert at taking the macro perspective, discusses emerging markets, inflation, efficiency in the tech sector, and making industry-leading data available for everyone, no matter the size of the portfolio.

Key Takeaways

[00:18] - A look at Rob Koyfman’s experience leading to founding Koyfin

[03:31] - Rob’s optimistic view about the macroeconomy right now

[09:18] - The macro look at emerging markets 

[13:38] - The reality of shifting from oil and gas to renewable energy

[20:23] - Interest rates’ effect on tech investing

[23:09] - The tech culture of growth vs. efficiency

[29:01] - How Koyfin is bringing professional-grade analytics tools to the masses

[32:38] - Why there’s a lack of innovation from large companies like Bloomberg

[35:42] - Where does Rob see Koyfin in 3-5 years


Quotes
[28:06] - “Maybe this whole [tech] layoff spurs the next wave of growth and technology by having all of these people that are intelligent coming together and saying, we've got to create a new product instead of being employed by one of these mega-firms.” - Doug Stokes  

[35:50] - “I'd say the real power of our tool is the customization and the fact that you have hedge fund managers and students using the tool in different ways. So we want to offer that customization to all of our users and basically offer all that data in one place so that they can customize the workflow to what they're trying to achieve.” - Rob Koyfman

Links

Rob Koyfman

Koyfin

Emerging Markets episode with Perth Tolle

Spotify cuts 6% of its workforce



Connect with our hosts

Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office



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lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com



Disclosure
The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

As the Stokes Brothers prepare for Mardi Gras in New Orleans, they reluctantly continue their ongoing conversation about the Fed and inflation. They’ll also look at rolling 30-year returns and delve into the legacy of Charlie Munger and the uneasy future of crypto.

Key Takeaways

[00:35] - The calm before the New Orleans Mardi Gras storm

[03:16] - An update on inflation

[09:06] - Shelter and the annualized rate of inflation

[13:08] - The worst 30-year return over the past 100 years was a total gain of 850%

[17:10] - Our thoughts on Charlie Munger

[21:46] - Is the technology behind Bitcoin ripe for disaster?


Quotes
[06:14] - “I think what's happened is the market, on the whole, was surprised, positively, about the strength of the American consumer and the economy in spite of the fact that the Fed raised rates on the most rapid pace in history from basically nothing to where we're at right now. And the economy on the whole really hadn't slowed down.” - Greg Stokes
[13:08] - “Discussion on markets is an exercise in futility and keeping people invested and towards an objective of long-term planning and discipline is really what this all this is all about.” - Doug Stokes  

Links


Bill McBride: Core CPI ex-Shelter


Ben Carlson: Deconstructing 10, 20 & 30 Year Stock Market Returns

3,000 Hit Club from age 27 on

Charlie Munger at the Daily Journal Annual Meeting


Connect with our hosts

Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office


Subscribe and stay in touch

Apple Podcasts

Spotify

Google Podcasts

lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com


Disclosure
The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.