Our experts provide a 360-degree perspective across countries, risks, industries, and commodities to ensure you make the best possible decisions.
Episode 77: China’s Economic Outlook in the Year of the Ox
2020 was the worst year for the global economy in a long time. And the same can be said for the Chinese economy. In today’s episode, we join our China economics team, Todd Lee, Yating Xu, and Lei Yi to understand how strong China’s economic recovery was in late 2020, what were the key drivers, and what we can expect in the Lunar New Year of the Ox.
Rajiv Biswas (Moderator), Asia-Pacific Chief Economist, IHS Markit
Todd Lee, Chief China Economist, IHS Markit
Yating Xu, Senior Economist, IHS Markit
Lei Yi, Economist, IHS
Read more about the links between economic recovery and consumer spend in China
Episode 76: Supply Chain Diversification: Trade opportunities for Sub-Saharan Africa
One of the many fallouts from the Covid-19 pandemic is disruptions to global supply chains. As we start to restructure supply chains, our Sub Saharan Africa team digs into what this could mean for the region. At first blush, SSA seems unlikely to benefit from this diversification drive. However, under the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) there will be some opportunities.
Natznet Tesfay (Moderator), Executive Director, Africa, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit
Thea Fourie, Team Lead Sub-Saharan Africa Economics, IHS Markit
Archbold Macheka, Economist, Sub Saharan Africa, IHS Markit
William Farmer, Analyst, Sub-Saharan Africa, IHS Markit
Alisa Strobel, Senior Economist, Sub-Saharan Africa, IHS Markit IHS Markit
Dr. Marie Lechler, Data Analytics Principal, Applied Intelligence, IHS Markit
Episode 75: Geopolitics of Covid-19 Vaccine role out: Latin America
In today’s episode, we explore the operational, security, and political challenges Latin American countries will face as they roll out their vaccine programs. Our analysts, Lindsay Newman, Ewa Oliveira da Silva, Rafael Amiel, and Johanna Marris, address the health crisis, the economic constraints and impacts, and the political and security issues that could stand in the way of both health and economic recovery.
Dr. Lindsay Newman, Director, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit
Ewa Oliveira da Silva, Senior Analyst, Life Sciences, IHS Markit
Health crisis for the region- the timeline, the supply risks, and unknowns about the vaccines themselves.
Rafael Amiel, Director, Latin America & Caribbean Economics, IHS Markit
Economic constraints that governments are facing to procure these vaccines. What options are available to them?
Johanna Marris, Senior Country Risk Analyst, Latin America, IHS Markit
Episode 74: Chinese bond defaults - It’s not the monetary size that matters
While bank defaults are not uncommon in Mainland China, a few recent defaults have triggered a strong response. What makes these different? Well, it’s not the size of the default but rather the high-profile nature of the companies themselves that has created a stir. In today’s episode, our experts from our China economics and banking risk teams, Rajiv Biswas, Angus Lam, Yating Xu, and Lei Yi, discuss implications of these recent bond defaults and the impact on the wider global banking sector.
Read more about recent bond defaults in China: https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/chinas-bond-defaults.html
Rajiv Biswas, Chief Asia Pacific Economist
Angus Lam, Senior Economist, Banking Risk
Yating Xu, Principal Economist, China
Lei Yi, Economist, China
Episode 73: When will APAC economy recover? A regional outlook for 2021
With the worst economic contraction in recent history (-1.5%) in 2020, the Asia Pacific region is poised for 5.7% y/y growth in 2021—that is, assuming we see a successful vaccine roll out and a slowing in Covid-19 cases. But, recovery is not without its bumps. 2021 promises to be a year of uncertainty and the of pace of the recovery will be differentiated across the region. Join our Chief Asia Pacific Economist, Rajiv Biswas, in today’s episode to gain an understanding of the regional economic recovery. He provides a deep look at China, Japan, and India; discusses sector recovery; and most critically, provides his analysis of the impact the restructuring of the manufacturing supply chain will have on future growth.
Episode 72: Supply chain disruptions - Continued shortages in materials and labor
In today's episode, our pricing and purchasing experts, John Anton, John Mothersole, and Sophie Malin discuss the continued shortages being felt across material production and labor markets due to Covid-19 lockdowns and disease progression. John Mothersole talks about the growing frustrations being felt due to consistent disruptions across mining, lumber, and more critically semiconductors which will have a knock-on effect on additional industries.
When the conversation turns to disruptions to cargo and air shipping, Sophie offers her analysis on global labor shortages – specifically the differences in demand for labor in service industries vs manufacturing and construction. And of course, no discussion can be complete without discussing issues around illness, priority access to vaccines, and policy.
Register for Geostrategy 2021 here: https://ihsmarkit.com/events/2021-geopolitical-conference/overview.html