100 episodes

All about investing on the JSE with Simon Brown. Every Thursday.

JSE Direct with Simon Brow‪n‬ JustOneLap.com

    • Investing
    • 4.9 • 14 Ratings

All about investing on the JSE with Simon Brown. Every Thursday.

    It's a bull market (#436)

    It's a bull market (#436)

    Simon Shares A great research report on Blue Gem covering Renergen (JSE code: REN). What I really like about the report is that Keith shows you all his workings so you can make your own call on his working and decide. Spur (JSE code: SUR) were a horror show, no surprise it was the six months to end December with all the various lockdown levels. Two things struck me. They're positioning themselves well for the post-pandemic dining life, dark kitchens, exploring drive-through were feasible. But the biggie was how the company has changed in the last decade or so. It used to be Spur with a little pizza and sushi. But it really is now a collection of brands across different eating experiences and price points. My concern in the short term is a third and fourth wave. We can see as lockdown and alcohol bans get stricter their traffic decreases markedly and I am pretty sure that the rest of 2021 will see at least another two waves of the pandemic with the resulting harder lockdowns. Two awesome points from Nerina Visser in an interview I did with her yesterday on MoneywebNOW. Firstly she comments about the saving of dividend tax within a tax-free account. I have run the numbers and over a very long-term that saving is actually more than what one saves on capital gains tax. Secondly, what if you don't have the R36k lump sum to invest? Well, do you have some discretionary ETFs? If yes, sell them, move them into your tax-free account and then continue buying the ETF outside of the tax-free every month for the rest of the year. You get the tax-free benefit from day one. Upcoming events; Weekly, Wednesday at 5.30pm ~ Follow the Trader 04 March ~ Things I wish I knew: the beginner trader Subscribe to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes It's a bull market [caption id="attachment_24772" align="aligncenter" width="888"] Top40 weekly chart[/caption]
    I was chatting with some friends from around the world about markets. I say it's a bull market, especially locally. They all had a dozen different, and solid, reasons why I was wrong. But they miss one very important point - price.
    The simple truth is that markets the world over are at all-time highs and heading higher. We can kick and scream all we want, but price is the truth and the price is heading higher.
    Deciding that it is all crazy and heading to cash, or worse taking short positions is a fool's game.
    Sure one day the market will peak and somebody will have that Tweet where they called it. But that's not because they're super smart, but because if you call something often enough eventually you'll be right.
    Bull markets never feel 100% comfortable, that's the nature of the best. There is always a reason to be sceptical, that's the nature of the beast. But stop stressing and enjoy the ride, that's what bulls are for.
    JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
    JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
     

    • 17 min
    Market Standard 01 Mar 2021

    Market Standard 01 Mar 2021

    Offshore
    / US Durable Goods Orders Surge In January To Pre-COVID Highs
    / FB to pay Australian media
    / Latest Warren Buffet letter
    / Warren Buffett's $10 billion mistake: Precision Castparts
    / House passes $1.9 trillion Covid relief bill, sends it to Senate
    / Opec+ meets on Thursday
    Local
    / Budget
    / Sasol results (no rights issue)
    / TymeBank gets R1.6bn
    / Goldfields gets go-ahead to build 40MW solar plant at South Deep Mine
    / Implats results and dividend
    / Woolies results

    • 40 min
    Budget review (3.5/5) (#435)

    Budget review (3.5/5) (#435)

    Budget 2021 with AJM Tax I was again invited to moderate the AJM Tax post-budget panel with three excellent guests;
    Pieter Janse van Rensburg – AJM Tax Daniel Silke - Political Futures Consulting Adriaan Giessing – Seed Investments You can download the AJM Rax budget highlight booklet here.
    Subscribe to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes Upcoming events; Weekly, Wednesday at 5.30pm ~ Follow the Trader 04 March ~ Things I wish I knew: the beginner trader JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
    JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
     

    • 1 hr 1 min
    Market Standard 22 February 2021

    Market Standard 22 February 2021

    Offshore
    / Australia fight with Google and Facebook
    / Uber loses appeal in UK, drivers are workers not independent contractors
    / Former Bank of England Governor Carney joins board of digital payments company Stripe
    / US return to Paris Agreement
    / US jobless claims up to four-week high
    / Gold under pressure as it trades at lowest levels since June
    Local
    / Sibanye Stillwater results
    / Truworths results
    / BHP results and monster dividend
    / Rand at 14.50
    / Two interesting update titbits; Tigerbrands worried about January sales and Dis-Chem sees connivance malls much better than malls, but malls returning to normal.
    / Value Group delisting

    • 1 hr 1 min
    Commodity super cycle? (#434)

    Commodity super cycle? (#434)

    Simon Shares Interesting titbit from TigerBrands (JSE code: TBS) update "It is too early to conclude whether the lower consumer demand levels evident in the month of January reflect an even more challenging environment than what was experienced over the past year."
    Upcoming events; Weekly, Wednesday at 5.30pm ~ Follow the Trader 18 February ~ Everything ETFs and tax-free investing 04 March ~ Things I wish I knew: the beginner trader Subscribe to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes BHP* (JSE code: BHP) results were good, the cash flow was excellent with the dividend up 55% and payout ratio 85%.
    This is the benefit of commodity prices at higher levels but also due to low debt levels an almost zero capex requirements from most commodity miners.
    This raises three questions;
    Are we in a commodity supercycle? I think not, sure prices are at best levels in about five years. But that's off a low base rather than a super cycle. sure demand has picked up and global infrastructure spend is rising in response to the pandemic. But we don't have China growing at almost 10% a year sucking in almost all of the world's commodities as we did back in the early 2000s.
    Last time we ha a commodity supercycle it died the day after a global bank did a 100-page report on how it would last another decade.
    Will commodity prices go higher? They can but mostly I think they won't. Platinum could hit US$2,000 but for the rest our best bet is they stay around current levels. Oil, who knows. Will the frackers return in mass with higher prices? Demand will certainly continue to increase as we get out of the pandemic, but how long can Opec+ keep their collective foot on the production brake pedal? I think not long as they'll need the money.
    How long will it last? The elevated prices can probably last 3-5 years at best and this will see cash flows at high levels, especially as debt gets paid own. But the miners need to find new mines to mine or they run out of product to sell (as we're seeing with Pan African Resources* (JSE code: PAN) and their new mines / operations. So at some point, we'll start seeing green and brownfield capex projects coming back and that'll need some cash so dividends will start to drop.
    My big fear is mega deals. These always destroy value albeit the miners look at them as an easy way to increased supply for themselves. If a stock I hold gets an offer, I'll take the money and run. If a stock I own makes an offer, I'll take the money and run.
    * I hold ungeared positions.
    JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
    JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
     

    • 16 min
    Market Standard 15 February 2021

    Market Standard 15 February 2021

    Offshore
    / Disney results all about Disney+
    / Tesla puts $1.5billion into Bitcoin
    / Janet Yellen warns of ‘explosion of risk’ from cryptocurrency markets
    / Bumble IPO with 60% gain on the first day
    / Platinum above $1,200 for first tine in six years
    / Freeze Sends Gas Soaring to $600
    Local
    / More small-cap updates surprise to upside; Trellidor & Metrofile
    / Itatile results
    / ARB Holdings results, solid cash generation
    / Rand turned sixty yesterday
    / Cartrack coming back to earth after hitting 9000c
    / Steinhoff maybe resolving their legal woes
    / SARS collections ahead by R100billion
     

    • 1 hr 1 min

Customer Reviews

4.9 out of 5
14 Ratings

14 Ratings

Bills04 ,

Informative

Simon does a brilliant job summarizing topics which are on his radar about JSE stocks. The topics covered are broad so this will benefit anyone interested in SA financial markets.

Kirk Oldfield ,

Absolutely Brilliant

JSE Direct is a great podcast for any trader in South Africa, and Simon Brown is an inspiration to the community.

By far my favourite podcast.

-// ,

Insightful and humble

Simon clearly presents his views on shares on the JSE and isn't afraid to tell when he got it wrong. A great podcast to learn from.

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