Lies, predictions, experiments, and bets Troubleshooting Agile

Squirrel and Jeffrey discuss various ways to make statements about the future ("this feature will take a week" or "users will buy 20% more if we cut prices in half") and disagree about exactly how valuable they are and how to use them.

SHOW LINKS:

- Tilted Slider: https://agileconversations.com/blog/dont-add-more-metrics/
- Toyota Kata: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mrother/Homepage.html
- Thinking in Bets: https://www.annieduke.com/thinking-in-bets/
- Estimates are Lies: https://squirrelsquadron.com/events/2022/09-15-estimates.html
- Superforcasting: https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock/dp/0804136718
- Betting Market: https://manifold.markets

Events:
- Jtf at CITCON Europe Oct 14th & 15th: https://citconf.com/zwolle2022/
- Jtf at DevOps Enterprise Summit Oct 18th-20th: https://events.itrevolution.com/lasvegas/
- Squirrel live in Vienna Oct 20th: https://squirrelsquadron.com/events/2022/10-20-vienna.html
- Squirrel live in Miami early November: https://squirrelsquadron.com/events/2022/11-09-miami.html

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