About Lucky Maverick About Jonathan Bales At one point in my life, I thought that in Pizza Hut’s “Makin’ it great” ad campaign, they were actually saying “Brickin’ a brick.” I mean I was a toddler, but still. Brickin’ a brick. I believed this for years, even when I was old enough to logically understand “brickin’ a brick” doesn’t make any f*****g sense. I always thought it would be funny if a big company ran a huge ad campaign with a slogan that was totally meaningless just to see how it would perform. That’s what I’d do if I were in charge. “McDonald’s: Ready for the lightning?” Then we’d spend millions of dollars on it, maybe changing the classic ‘M’ logo to add in lightning bolts, and then I’d get fired. It didn’t matter that I believed Pizza Hut’s slogan was “Brickin’ a brick.” I got by. Even if I believed it today, it probably wouldn’t change much for me. It’s okay to have beliefs that are wrong. Most thoughts—and even actions—don’t matter. The majority of what you think you know is probably wrong, and most of what’s right doesn’t mean s**t anyway. Sometimes, though, you come across an idea that’s truly impactful to your life. It might still be wrong, but at least it’s useful for you, which is better than being wrong and useless I suppose. I think the value of knowledge probably grows exponentially such that most of it is basically worthless but a small percentage is overwhelmingly valuable. This has been my experience, anyway, as a few basic ideas capable of shifting my worldview have been more valuable than everything else I know combined, so I’ve tried to prioritize finding this rare knowledge that actually makes a difference, blocking out almost everything in search of the truly scarce stuff. With that said, I thought it might be cool to talk about the most impactful ideas that have changed my life thus far. The main criteria I used for selecting these is that each idea is something with which I at some point either disagreed or didn’t even really comprehend. It’s really important to get adequate sleep, but everyone knows that. These are all ideas that at some point I didn’t grasp, but ones that made profound impacts to my life once I did. The Big Concepts Convexity Errors, randomness, and “the unexpected” should help you, not harm you. If you’ve read my articles for more than 10 minutes, you probably know I’ve learned so much from Nassim Nicholas Taleb. From black swans to antifragility to being a giant dick to anyone who disagrees with you on Twitter, I’d say I owe more of my success to Taleb than anyone else I’ve read, even if he’s a total dick on Twitter. The main idea that’s changed my worldview is convexity, and specifically the concept of acquiring more benefits than harm from chaotic events. Whereas most people focus on improving prediction accuracy—and sometimes in areas in which that’s nearly impossible—few properly focus on the payoffs, which are more easily controllable and offer a larger usable edge in terms of competition. I applied this to DFS by focusing on ownership and lineup composition instead of projection accuracy. That is, maybe this player or team that everyone thinks will do well actually will, but maybe they won’t, and if they don’t, how can I benefit to the greatest degree? One way to apply convexity to your life is to mimic evolution: * Don’t suppress chaos. Natural selection is what Taleb would term “antifragile”—the opposite of fragile—because not only is it not harmed by chaos, it benefits from it. A species can change for the better fairly quickly in evolutionary terms from a single random genetic mutation. Even natural disasters are positives for most species as a whole, assuming they’re not entirely killed off, because they end up coming back stronger and more prepared than before. Humans, too, are hopefully more prepared for the next pandemic; COVID has been devastatingly brutal, but “good” and “bad” are designations that often change based on your time horizon. What’s bad in a static environment can often be one of the most beneficial things when viewed long-term. “Failure saves lives. In the airline industry, every time a plane crashes the probability of the next crash is lowered by that. So these people died, but we have effectively improved the safety of the system, and nothing failed in vain.” By embracing chaos in all aspects of life, you’re set up for more sustainable long-term success. That’s one reason I tweeted this: Not all jobs are the same and every person is different; there’s no one-size-fits-all plan for everyone. In fact, most people are probably best off in the employee role. Generally speaking, though, one of the biggest misconceptions about being a salaried employee is that it’s safer than something like an independent contractor. Being a contractor isn’t always a great solution—it’s not feasible in some areas and takes a long time to build a customer base—but who do you think is more susceptible to a sharp change in income: someone making $70,000 a year from one employer or someone earning the same amount from eight clients in two different niches? The latter is more volatile, but the former is riskier. Evolution embraces chaos, and in exchange eventually delivers the best results. Without that volatility, there could be no progress. “Nature builds things that are antifragile. In the case of evolution, nature uses disorder to grow stronger. Occasional starvation or going to the gym also makes you stronger, because you subject your body to stressors and gain from them.” Don’t deprive yourself of life’s shocks; they’re what allow for your personal evolution. * Think long. Evolution needs time to operate. This is a characteristic of things that like chaos; they love time. The more time, the better, which runs in opposition to most things, which eventually break down over time. Many people are doing things—whether professionally or personally—that, unbeknownst to them, will not survive over time; they’re eventually going to go busto, as we say in the gambling world. If we’re being honest, most people can’t even calculate expected value in static environments. A much smaller percentage know how to do it over time, choosing what’s optimal in arenas in which the first order of business should be eliminating risk of ruin, i.e. “not dying.” Natural selection does this better than any business in the world; it’s built into the system. Species maximize their chances of survival as a whole above all else. Survive, then optimize. Build systems that embrace volatility and are meant to survive and improve with time. Via negativa Addition by subtraction This is a simple concept, which is that to improve basically anything in life, first look at what you can take away before adding anything. Unhealthy? What are some things you can remove from your diet or lifestyle before adding something like supplements? Unhappy? What can you remove from your life before taking antidepressants? The ‘via negativa’ concept is related to an approach I’ve discussed when it comes to winning games, which is to reverse-engineer a strategy by starting with what success looks like, then working backwards by removing the paths that don’t lead to winning. Think of how a sculptor creates a statue from a slab of concrete; the “truth” of the statue is already there, hidden and waiting to be realized, but only after removing that which isn’t necessary. Leverage Big wins require big leverage. I used to make the majority of my money as a freelance writer. I liked it and hated it at the same time. I liked that I was in control of how much money I made (sort of), and I disliked that I was broke and forced to write all day long to get by. Still, I can write pretty quickly, so once I got rolling and had some companies paying me, it was a decent income. But in terms of making short-term money, I had no ability to apply leverage. What I mean by that was I got paid for what I produced, and that’s it. I was paid for my time, which can become quite tempting if you can quickly create things of value. However, I almost always tried to write evergreen articles I thought could live for a long time. I wasn’t sure why I wanted to do that; it just felt right for some reason. It was one of the best decisions I made because writing in that way was a form of leverage. That’s actually the idea behind what I’m doing right now with this newsletter—building up long-term equity (in the form of trust) that can be cashed in at a later date. I’m not charging for it and I don’t have immediate plans to do so, but my guess is that writing things that (hopefully) help people will always be a valuable use of my time. Traders are of course familiar with leverage, which can make smart men very rich and dumb ones very poor. The same is true outside of markets. I recently wrote about leverage in Sam Hinkie, Leverage & Dynamic Decision-Making. The key to finding real success is to figure out what works and apply leverage. Fundamental to this idea is understanding and accepting today’s wealth is not created by how hard someone works. You’ll have a difficult time becoming wealthy by getting paid for your time. You have to get paid for the value you provide others through your unique knowledge, multiplied by the leverage you place on it. The returns from this sort of work—amplified by the internet—are compounding. This increases the importance of logical decision-making. When the results of your decisions are non-linear, it amplifies their impact. If you consider yourself a sharp decision-maker and you have unique knowledge or skills, there’s never been a better time to get rich. The theoretical bounds of the value you can extract are nearly limitless. Acquire specific knowledge or develop a unique skill. This is a
