21 min
Macro Topics for 2023 and Beyond, with James Pomeroy, Global Economist, HSBC Signals by AlphaSense
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- Business
In this episode, we spoke with James Pomeroy, UK-based global economist at HSBC, and we covered a number of macroeconomic topics.
Starting off with inflation, the dominant 2022 macro theme, we explored the different drivers of inflation globally, highlighting the differences in the drivers between regions.
While energy drove the inflation jump in Europe, North America saw excessive shelter inflation, while the heavier weighing of food drove inflation in Emerging Markets.
Linked to inflation, we covered deglobalization and near-shoring. While generally perceived as inflationary, James brought up a few factors where it might not be.
We then discussed rates: we are seeing the first synchronized global central bank tightening in many years.
However rates as a policy transmission mechanism vary substantially from country to country: James contrasted the predominantly fixed mortgage rates in the US versus Sweden where the housing market has already softened considerably.
We then covered what might be the end of the US dollar bull market.
Finally, we touched upon global demographics: given China's entering a period of population decline, we discussed global labor force dynamics, and how the aging and shrinking of the workforce can be counteracted through robotics.
In this episode, we spoke with James Pomeroy, UK-based global economist at HSBC, and we covered a number of macroeconomic topics.
Starting off with inflation, the dominant 2022 macro theme, we explored the different drivers of inflation globally, highlighting the differences in the drivers between regions.
While energy drove the inflation jump in Europe, North America saw excessive shelter inflation, while the heavier weighing of food drove inflation in Emerging Markets.
Linked to inflation, we covered deglobalization and near-shoring. While generally perceived as inflationary, James brought up a few factors where it might not be.
We then discussed rates: we are seeing the first synchronized global central bank tightening in many years.
However rates as a policy transmission mechanism vary substantially from country to country: James contrasted the predominantly fixed mortgage rates in the US versus Sweden where the housing market has already softened considerably.
We then covered what might be the end of the US dollar bull market.
Finally, we touched upon global demographics: given China's entering a period of population decline, we discussed global labor force dynamics, and how the aging and shrinking of the workforce can be counteracted through robotics.
21 min