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  • MATHEMATICS
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Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life

  1. 2D AGO

    Erdos Problem 1196: Can AI now solve maths that no human can?

    It’s said that AI could soon be coming for the jobs of artists, lawyers, and software engineers. But it might now also be threatening a role at the height of academia – are pure mathematicians safe? Last month, a Stanford mathematician woke up to an email, claiming to have the solution to a problem he'd been working on for seven years - a fifty-year-old conundrum known as "Erdos Problem 1196". The answer had been generated in just 80 minutes - by ChatGPT. Since the end of last year, AI has been providing solutions to a number of novel maths problems, but Problem 1196 is the first to raise eyebrows within the mathematical community. In this episode, we talk to the mathematicians who've worked on Problem 1196 and find out what the rise of AI could mean for the future of their field. CONTRIBUTORS: Katie Steckles, Mathematician and communicator Jared Duker Lichtman, Szegő Assistant Professor of Mathematics at Stanford University Liam Price, amateur mathematician Credits: Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Josh McMinn Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Dave O'Neill Editor: Richard Vadon

    9 min

  2. MAY 9

    Why it’s wrong to say vaping is as bad for you as smoking

    According to the World Health organisation, smoking kills some 7 million people every year. It is one of the world’s leading causes of preventable death. Because smoking causes lung cancer and other awful health conditions, many smokers switch to vaping - using nicotine-based e-cigarettes. But the World Health organisation is also concerned about vaping. Last year they said 100 million people around the world are now using e-cigarettes, including millions of children, and warned that they were fuelling a new wave of nicotine addiction. But how do the health risks of these two means of getting nicotine into your bloodstream compare? According to a recent headline in the Daily Mail, they’re basically the same. Here’s the headline: “Vaping is linked to lung and mouth cancer in major study, as experts warn: 'It is NOT safer than smoking’” But is vaping really just as bad for you as smoking? CONTRIBUTOR: Professor Lion Shahab, Co-Director of the UCL Tobacco and Alcohol Research Group CREDITS: Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Reporter/producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Dave O’Neil Editor: Richard Vadon

    9 min

  3. MAY 2

    Does it take 15,000 litres of water to produce a kilogram of beef?

    If you spend much time on social media, and we don’t necessarily recommend it, then you’ve probably come across a strange fascination with water consumption. Mainly, this is people telling you that using AI is terrible for the planet because of how much water it uses. We’ve already made a couple of programmes about the numbers in those arguments and, long story short, they probably aren’t saying what you think they’re saying. But on platforms like X, BlueSky, and TikTok, an opportunity to keep an argument going is rarely missed And one of the numbers that’s been enlisted in that glorious cause concerns the water that’s used for a seemingly unrelated past-time - eating beef. Here’s an example from a user on X: “A kilogram of beef requires over 15,000 litres of water to produce,” they wrote. “A vegan who uses ChatGPT every day is living a more sustainable lifestyle than someone who regularly eats beef while boycotting AI.” Ignoring the AI part, is that true? Does it actually take 15,000 litres of water to produce a kilogram of beef? It turns out that the number isn’t wrong, but it probably isn’t saying what you think it’s saying. If you’ve seen a number you think we should take a look at, email the More or Less team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk CONTRIBUTORS: Mesfin Mekonnen, Assistant Professor at the University of Alabama Mark Mulligan, Professor of Physical and Environmental Geography at King's College London Tim Hess, Professor of Water and Food Systems at Cranfield University CREDITS: Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Mhairi MacKenzie Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Emma Harth Editor: Richard Vadon

    9 min

  4. APR 25

    Have RFK and MAHA really changed American views on vaccines?

    Vaccine policy in the US is something of an ideological battleground. Health Secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr is a vaccine sceptic, and since taking office he has attempted to remake US vaccine policy. In March a judge blocked his proposal to cut the number of jabs that are recommended for kids. At the same time, last year saw the worst measles outbreak in the US in decades. There were more than 2000 cases last year, and three people died. There have been more than 1500 cases so far in 2026. There’s a lot going on, so it’s possible the public’s views on vaccination are shifting. A new poll published by online news site Politico added a big claim into the mix. According to the headline “more Americans doubt vaccine safety than trust it”. But is that what the survey actually found? Dr David Higgins, a paediatrician and public health assistant professor who writes a Substack called Community Immunity, explains why he believes the headline is misleading. If you've seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

    9 min

  5. APR 18

    Is Trump right that wind turbines are killing millions of birds?

    US president Donald Trump is no fan of wind turbines, or windmills as he calls them. Not only does he think they ruin the view from a golf course he owns in Scotland, but they are also deadly to birds. “If you love birds, you’d never want to walk under a windmill,” he said in 2019. “It’s a very sad, sad sight. It’s like a cemetery. We put a little statue for the poor birds.” Earlier this year he posted on Truth Social saying that wind turbines were killing “millions” of birds. But is that true? We speak to Dr Hannah Ritchie, Deputy Editor at Our World in Data and senior researcher at the University of Oxford, who has dug into the numbers on bird mortality and wind turbines. Credits: Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Mhairi MacKenzie Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Sue Maillot Editor: Richard Vadon

    9 min

  6. APR 11

    Dr Spock’s dangerous advice on baby sleep

    Sometimes it is obvious to everyone when an idea is harmful, or a piece of advice is damaging. But not always. Occasionally bad ideas and terrible advice end up being accepted in society and supported by people in authority. In such circumstances, one of the most powerful tools for changing people's minds is evidence – scientific studies that show beyond doubt that the bad idea is, indeed, a bad idea. That's the subject of a new book by Helen Pearson, titled Beyond Belief: How Evidence Shows What Really Works. An editor at the scientific journal Nature in her day job, the book chronicles those determined individuals who shake up the status quo by gathering just the right kind of evidence. One story in that book stood out to us on More or Less as it shows just what happens when you don't have the evidence you need to challenge a dangerous way of doing things. It's the story of a piece of advice from childcare expert Dr Benjamin Spock. In a 1958 revision of his bestselling parenting guide Baby and Childcare he made a small change to his advice on sleeping position – advising parents to put their babies to sleep on their front. It eventually became clear that this sleeping position was associated with a significant increase in the risk of sudden infant death, or cot death. CREDITS: Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Rod Farquhar Editor: Richard Vadon

    9 min

  7. APR 4

    How likely is ‘likely’?

    When you’re listening to the news, you will often hear words that are meant to communicate the probability of something happening.   A terrorist attack is “a realistic possibility”, the spread of a certain strain of virus is “highly likely", the relegation of your favourite football team is “possible”. But when you hear these terms, do you really know what kind of probabilities they’re trying to convey? Do you know how likely “likely” is? Or what probability “probable” is meant to get across? In some cases, it seems you probably don't. Professor Adam Kucharski, author of Proof, the Uncertain Science of Certainty, designed a quiz to work out the actual probabilities of the language we use to convey risks. The data he got back shows how sometimes these words mean very different things to different people. If you want to try the quiz for yourself, head over to https://probability.kucharski.io/ Email the More or Less team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk CREDITS: Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

    9 min

  8. MAR 28

    How much water does AI consume?

    As Artificial Intelligence continues to expand rapidly, some people have raised concerns about its potential environmental impact - in particular its use of water, which is used to cool both data centres and the power generators that supply them with electricity. One recent book on AI contained the alarming prediction that AI could consume between 4 and 6 trillion litres a year by 2027. Could this eye-popping figure be right? If not, what is the correct figure, and is it a big number? The devil, as ever, is in the detail, and with the help of expert Alex de Vries-Gao, the More or Loss team has taken a deep dive to get to the truth about AI and water consumption. If you’ve seen a number in the news and you think More or Less should take a look, email the team on moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer / Reporter: Nathan Gower Series Producer: Tom Colls Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Dave O’Neil Editor: Richard Vadon

    9 min
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Hosts & Guests

4.7
out of 5
782 Ratings

About

Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life

Information

  • Channel
    BBC
  • Creator
    BBC Radio 4
  • Years Active
    2007 - 2026
  • Episodes
    1.1K
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © (C) BBC 2026
  • Show Website
    More or Less
  • Provider
    BBC Studios Distribution Limited

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