North Korea Has More Leverage Than Before, Kim Jong Un on Russia, China, Trump w/ Expert Rachel Lee

A surprising episode where North Korea in 2026 is stronger, more battle-tested, and less willing to bargain than the country Donald Trump faced in 2019.

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Ryan Fugit sits down with North Korea expert Rachel Minyoung Lee to examine what Kim Jong Un wants from renewed diplomacy with President Trump and why Pyongyang now believes it is negotiating from a position of strength.

Rachel explains how analysts separate real signals from North Korean propaganda, why Kim Yo Jong's measured response to Trump matters, and how North Korea uses the rank of its messenger to control the authority of every statement.

The conversation also examines what North Korea is gaining from its relationship with Russia, including economic benefits, political protection, battlefield experience, drone lessons, and possible conventional military technology.

In this episode, we cover:

• Why Kim Jong Un's daughter's reported name remains unconfirmed • How analysts find meaningful signals inside North Korean propaganda • Kim Yo Jong's carefully calibrated response to Trump • Why Pyongyang sees Trump as a diplomatic opportunity • North Korea's demand for recognition of its nuclear status • How the Iran conflict reinforces Kim's nuclear strategy • What North Korea is gaining from the war in Ukraine • Why North Korean forces now possess real battlefield experience • Russia's possible role in modernizing North Korea's conventional military • China's influence over North Korea and its reluctance to use it • The likelihood of another Trump-Kim summit • How a failed summit could increase the risk of miscalculation or conflict

This episode explains why personal rapport alone cannot resolve the North Korean nuclear problem. Kim Jong Un has more options, more confidence, and more powerful partners than he did during the 2018 and 2019 summits. If Washington misreads that shift, another high-profile meeting could leave the Korean Peninsula more dangerous.

Timeline / chapters

• 00:00 Rachel Minyoung Lee on decoding North Korea • 01:33 Why Kim Jong Un's daughter's reported name may be wrong • 03:54 Finding the real signal inside North Korean propaganda • 05:41 Why the rank of the messenger changes the message • 09:02 Kim Yo Jong responds to Trump's renewed outreach • 13:24 Why Pyongyang sees Trump as a golden opportunity • 16:35 Downsized military exercises and demands for more concessions • 17:24 Nuclear recognition as North Korea's price for engagement • 19:05 How the Iran conflict reinforces Kim's nuclear strategy • 21:53 What North Korea is getting from Russia • 24:41 Battlefield lessons, drones, and North Korea's combat edge • 26:28 Why Russia may favor conventional military transfers • 29:17 What China wants from North Korea • 31:43 China's leverage and why Beijing will not use it • 36:08 Trump's fascination, bromance, and unfinished business • 39:14 Nuclear recognition and the unclear US endgame • 40:37 How another Trump-Kim photo op could backfire • 43:16 Deterrence gaps and the growing risk of miscalculation

About Rachel Minyoung Lee

Rachel Minyoung Lee is a senior fellow for the Stimson Center's Korea Program and 38 North. She previously spent two decades as a North Korea collection expert and analyst with the US government's Open Source Enterprise, formerly known as the Open Source Center. Her work has covered North Korean leadership, politics, economics, foreign policy, security, and public messaging.

Official 38 North profile: https://www.38north.org/author/rachel-minyoung-lee/

Restricted Handling: https://www.restrictedhandling.com/