Odd Lots Bloomberg

The Federal Reserve has hiked rates in rapid fashion, yet the evidence of their impact is scarce. Inflation is still hot (though it has come down quite a bit.) The unemployment rate remains very low. And economic growth appears to be robust. So does this mean that higher rates aren't significant? Or could it be that their impact has simply yet to be felt, and that it's still coming. On this episode, our guest argues the latter case that due to lags, we really haven't felt the pain from rate hikes yet. Julia Coronado, is the founder, CEO and president of Macro Policy Perspectives, as well as a Clinical Associate Professor of Finance at the University of Texas McCombs School of Business. She argues that we really haven't felt the credit effects yet from higher rates, but that they're on the way. In particular, we discuss the delayed impact on commercial real estate and other areas of the economy where debt may have been termed out, but will eventually need refinancing.
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When it comes to economics, there are a bunch of different schools to choose from, but pretty much all of them are focused on boosting growth. Except, that is, for the degrowth movement, which aims to refocus economics away from GDP. As more and more complaints about "late-stage capitalism" seem to be piling up, along with worries about the impact of rampant consumerism on the environment, is this the degrowth movement's time to shine? We speak with Noel King, the co-host of Vox's Today Explained podcast, about her new mini-series exploring discontent with the capitalist model. She explains the intellectual origins of the degrowth movement, why it's getting more attention now, and just what an economy that no longer prioritizes "growth at any cost" might look like.
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This year has seen a spate of insurance companies announcing that they're leaving markets like Florida and California, citing the increased risk of natural disasters, such as floods and wildfires. Elsewhere, premiums for certain types of insurance are skyrocketing — yet many insurance companies can't seem to turn a profit in certain areas. Melanie Gall is the co-director of the Center for Emergency Management and Homeland Security at Arizona State University, and she also manages the Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database for the United States, known as SHELDUS. In this episode, we talk to her about what's driving insurers away from certain markets, and what can still be done to protect businesses and homeowners from catastrophe.
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When the US auto industry needed a restructuring or bailout in 2009, the Obama administration tapped former banker and investor Steven Rattner to lead the effort. As the government's "car czar," he helped shape an agreement that saw the United Auto Workers accept significant concessions in order to preserve the financial stability of the big three American carmakers. Now the UAW is on strike, with an aim of reversing many of those concessions and gaining new benefits for their workers. So what can the UAW reasonably accomplish? How plausible are their asks? And can US industry remain competitive with higher labor costs? On this episode of Odd Lots, we speak with Rattner to get his take on the negotiations, the challenge of the energy transition on the incumbent automakers, and the goals of Bidenomics more broadly, as the administration seeks to boost domestic manufacturing in areas like EVs, batteries, and semiconductors.
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When generations undergo any kind of collective life-changing event, it shapes how people think about money -- and how they think about spending and investing. Past upheavals like the Great Depression, the World Wars, the inflation of the 1970s, and Weimar-era hyperinflation, had profound effects on the cohorts that lived through them. So what will be the effect of the pandemic on current generations? And what is the combined effect on people who lived through the pandemic, the Great Financial Crisis, and 9/11 in a span of less than 20 years? On this episode, we speak to Morgan Housel, personal finance expert and author of the bestselling book The Psychology of Money, on the lasting impact from these recent societal disruptions.
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In theory, the Federal Reserve operates by tightening the supply of credit. Or at least making it more close. Yet so far, despite the rate hikes, the economy has remained resilient. And credit spreads have remained surprisingly tight. So what's going on? Where are the risks? Why are some pockets of the credit markets showing weakness, while others are rock solid? On this episode of the podcast, which was recorded live at the Future Proof conference in Huntington Beach, California, we speak with Wayne Dahl, a managing director and investment risk officer at Oaktree Capital Management, to get a broader lay of the land.
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