Outerblue Amundi

Our capital market assumption forecasts look more closely at the themes that shape the financial market landscape and aim to help steer investors over the medium to long-term. This year the publication considers how climate delays and productivity gains from artificial intelligence are likely to drive a reordering of asset class profiles and the role played by geopolitical tensions.
Swaha Pattanaik catches up with Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute and John O’Toole, Head of Multi Asset Investment Solutions, to find out what’s changed in the assumptions since last year and how these feed into the return forecasts. They discuss our base scenario for energy transition and the impacts of artificial intelligence and how all these complex elements might influence GDP, inflation and asset class returns.

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The uncertainties faced by financial markets over the recent months have been making forecaster’s lives difficult. The two big questions over growth and inflation continue to preoccupy. Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, discuss what’s been catching their attention over the past month and how these factors are influencing projections. 
Can the US economy maintain the resilience shown so far and will growth continue on an upward trend? How sticky will inflation prove to be? This month discusses how these two elements are crucial to understanding the next steps for the Federal Reserve and, consequently, market direction. It also looks at how these factors are playing out across the different regions and asset classes.
Read The Global Investment Views of the month

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Recent weeks have seen gains in the Magnificent Seven with rallies spreading across other sectors and US and European equities setting record highs. But how much longer can the equity markets keep rising and what has been driving this climb? Giulio Lombardo and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, take a closer look at the reasons behind this upsurge and whether we should expect a reversal soon. Also on an upward trajectory this month was gold. They discuss what’s been going on.
 
This edition also returns to the big question for markets, interest rate cuts, and whether a summer rate cut is still on the cards for the Fed. Will other central banks follow the Fed’s lead or are they plotting their own course? This month’s edition concludes with an update on fixed income and emerging markets, what recent moves have meant for these asset classes and where investors should be looking for opportunities.

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The last month has, to a large extent, seen a reversal in investors’ expectations for central bank actions. This has been the hot topic for financial markets over the past few weeks as these expectations filter down into financial data and continue to drive asset prices. However signs of a slowdown are appearing. What factors will be most important to judge market direction going forward? 
 
Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, discuss the state of play and whether the current market sentiment has changed Amundi’s own views. They talk about what’s driving the interest rate cuts as well as the timing and likely sizes of the cuts in the major global economies. They cover what these changes mean for Amundi’s investment convictions across asset classes and regions, and finish by discussing the FX markets and where investors could look for opportunities.

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Advances in artificial intelligence have unleashed a new wave of technological revolution, one that promises a torrent of disruption across both financial markets and our daily lives. The speed of transformation has sparked widespread concern, not least about the impact it could have on jobs across a whole range of sectors.
 
As demand surges and generative AI is said to reach the “tipping point” of mainstream adoption, Swaha Pattanaik sits down with Annalisa Usardi, Senior Economist at Amundi Investment Institute, and Bastian Drut, Head of Thematic Macro Strategy at CPR Asset Management, to discuss the transformative impact of the technology and its implications for economies in the short and longer term. They take a closer look at the impact AI might have on productivity, growth and the labour markets, when and where this will most be felt, and how AI might ultimately be a positive development for addressing demographic challenges.
Click here to discover more on this topic.

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Promoting social mobility and equality of opportunity remains a pressing concern for many countries, challenging the very fabric of our society. Hence, understanding the perceptions and representations of equal opportunities is essential to catalyse collective action and support corrective measures.
 
A survey conducted by the OECD with the support of Amundi across 27 OECD countries delves into the perceptions and attitudes surrounding inequality and explores what truly matters for the population in the fight for equal opportunities.
 
In this podcast, Romina Boarini, Director of the OECD WISE Centre, reveals the survey’s main outcomes on the different aspects of inequality, the factors that are seen as playing a major role in climbing the social ladder as well as on the role that different actors are expected to play in reducing inequality and the type of policies and actions that could be prioritised.

Read more : https://research-center.amundi.com/article/exploring-perceptions-equal-opportunity

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