Palisades Gold Radio is the largest online discussion platform for junior mining globally. Each week, host Collin Kettell interviews top experts in the energy and mining space to discuss macro trends and identify strong investment ideas. With over 1,000,000 views in just three years and videos viewed from over 150 countries around the world, Palisades Gold Radio is the best place for top quality mining content. Guests have included Robert Kiyosaki, Don Coxe, Rick Rule, Eric Sprott, Doug Casey, Frank Holmes, Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, and much more. Visit us at www.palisadesradio.ca
Sam Riggall: Industry-Wide Crisis Coming for Nickel and Cobalt
Tom welcomes Sam Riggall, CEO of Sunrise Energy Metals, to the show. Sam discusses his open letter to the automotive industry regarding metal supply concerns. The auto industry has not been overly concerned with the availability of metals. Lithium, cobalt, and copper are all essential metals that are necessary for battery-based systems.
Lithium gets a lot of attention, but most batteries today need considerable nickel and lessening quantities of lithium. Cobalt is also vital in stabilizing battery chemistries. Lithium is relatively easy to bring into production. The biggest bottlenecks will be with nickel and some concerns around cobalt.
He explains the differences between class one and class two nickel and the extraction processes involved. Class one nickel is generally required for battery manufacturing, with the latter used for stainless steel.
Today, one of the challenges is getting capital investment into the mining business for these new mines. So far, the space doesn't attract much interest from investors.
Sunrise is building a very integrated project that is engaged with the automotive industry. They are developing methods to recycle old batteries and recover resources for the industry. However, recycling over the coming years will only make up 10-12% of the needed metal demand.
He explains the importance of scandium and its use in enhancing aluminum alloys. They have a project at Sunrise in Australia and are helping develop industrial applications with their industry partners.
The time has come for these technologies as we are on the verge of a technological revolution, and he feels they are well prepared for this future.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:33 - Industrial Gaps4:02 - Nickel & Cobalt8:19 - Nickel Grades13:32 - Project Capital17:32 - Nickels Prospects19:33 - Strategic Importance?23:00 - Sunrise Project26:58 - Recycling Batteries30:06 - Battery Lifecycles31:52 - Scandium & Its Uses36:34 - Clean TeQ's Innovations39:55 - Concluding Thoughts
Talking Points From This Episode
* Battery metals and supply concerns around nickel and cobalt.* Slow uptake in interest and capital investment in these sectors.* Strategic concerns and China's advantage in processing.* Recycling of existing lithium batteries and the uses for scandium.
Guest Links:Website: https://www.sunriseem.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/cleanteq
Sam Riggall is Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Sunrise Energy Metals, formerly Clean TeQ. He was previously Executive Vice President of Business Development and Strategic Planning at Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. In that role, he was responsible for securing the agreement to develop the Oyu Tolgoi copper/gold mine in Mongolia and managing Ivanhoe's other global business development opportunities. Before that, Sam was with the Rio Tinto Group for over a decade, covering project generation and evaluation, business development, and capital market transactions.
Sam is a graduate of law and economics from Melbourne University and has an MBA from Melbourne Business School.
Ted Butler: Coming Silver Breakout Will be Violent
Tom welcomes Ted Butler back to the show to discuss the recent activity in the metals market.
Ted discusses the Comex's 'commercials,' composed chiefly of banks and financial institutions which arguably aren't using the futures markets for legitimate reasons. They are speculators and are not legitimate hedgers. They cheat the other traders by sending out false price signals and utilize algorithmic systems to manipulate the rest of the users.
Today, we're down in silver because these commercial interests suppress the price by artificial means to get others to sell. So in every price decline, the commercials manage to be net buyers while everyone else is net selling. It's like a three-card monte game only with millions and billions at stake.
Spoofing is a short-term tool used to suppress prices briefly. The CFTC should instead be concerned by the concentrated size of these short positions.
Ted has received many responses over the years from the government, and usually, they tend to dispute and reject most of his points. They often argue that the concentrated positions don't matter. However, earlier this year, he wrote to his Florida Congressman, who did an excellent job following up with his concerns. This time they didn't argue and instead passed on the information to the enforcement divisions.
The big shorts have been reducing their positions and are now at the lowest levels since 2015. If banks don't add to these positions, then on the next rally, silver will fly. These big banks have gone through a lot of work to reduce their short positions. As a result, the message may be getting through to the government and these crooks.
The silver squeeze movement has brought much attention to silver, and because silver is still a small market, there will be a lot of room for new investors. So the sky may be the limit from here.
We've been in a tight trading range for silver for some time, which has kept silver demand somewhat at bay. There are few sellers today, even though retail demand is steady. The single best reason to buy silver is due to the manipulation and because it can't stay that way much longer.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:30 - Cheaters5:07 - Shorts Hedging?6:24 - Banks Spoofing?8:51 - Gov't Response14:01 - A New Era Begins17:16 - Silver Shorts Legit?20:43 - What Has Changed?24:17 - BOA OTC Position27:58 - COT Reports30:53 - Silver Squeeze33:26 - Retail Premiums38:41 - Industrial Users43:44 - 1000oz Bar Market48:27 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
* Cheaters and the methods used by large financial firms used to manipulate markets.* Why the manipulation is ending, and we are entering a new era.* Ted's opinion of COT reports and some of the manipulation theories.* The silver squeeze movements impact and overall demand for the metal.
Guest Links:Website: https://butlerresearch.com
Ted Butler began trading commodities with Merrill Lynch in 1972. He also worked at Drexel Burnham Lambert in the 1980s. Since 1996, Ted has been an independent analyst, primarily focusing on silver. In addition, he offers a subscription service with once or twice weekly commentaries, including a detailed analysis of the Commitment of Traders Report, regulatory developments, supply/demand considerations, and topics of interest to investors in precious metals, emphasizing silver.
Paul Belanger: Gold – The Ultimate Hedge
Tom welcomes a new guest to the show, Paul Belanger. Paul is a recently retired chemical engineer with an interesting YouTube channel, "Evidence Based Wealth," where he analyzes various investing strategies.
Paul explains his background and what led him to take a deep dive into investing and economic theory.
Paul discusses past gold and silver standards and why the Treasury still considers the United States to be on a gold standard. Eighty percent of currency in circulation is composed of $100 notes which are mainly used as a store of value globally. The Treasury states that banks must hold collateral equal to the value of the Federal Reserve notes. That collateral is in the form of gold certificates and US Securities.
He contrasts the physical currency in circulation with the price of gold and details how this ratio has moved over the last forty years. If we were to return to a full gold standard today, the price of gold would have to increase by about four times.
Most investors don't have a good appreciation for those rare black swan events. Periodically, financial catastrophes occur in markets. This is why wealthy people own choice land, art, fine furniture, and gold. These are things that can carry wealth through to the other side of large financial events. Gold is one of the only few things the average person can use to preserve wealth.
He explains the importance of balancing one's portfolio and believes an optimum portfolio is one with 65% stocks and 35% gold. This approach seems to give the best overall balance for good returns while minimizing risks. It's also important to periodically rebalance these portfolios to maintain that ratio.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:45 - His Background3:38 - Gold Standard9:16 - Gold Certificates14:21 - Currency/Gold Chart25:15 - Probability Game39:13 - Optimal Portfolio46:00 - Risk Vs. Return54:55 - Rebalancing1:03:08 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
* Paul's Background and interest in economics.* Gold standards and the current US Dollar.* Physical currency and the value of gold.* Managing market risk with gold and finding the optimum portfolio balance.
Guest Links:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/belangp/videosPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/belangp
Paul Belanger (belangp) is a chemical engineer by profession. He earned a Ph.D. in early 1997 and practiced for nearly 25 years, most recently serving as a director of R&D. He retired this year at the age of 50, having achieved financial independence, to live a different life. During his professional career, he became deeply interested in monetary science, exploring the nature of money, credit, and investments.
Paul started a YouTube channel in 2013 to share some of the theories he learned were true and highlight the flaws in the theories that he found to be false. The channel now has a few hundred videos that are available for free. The topics range from wealth building and preservation to economics and politics. The channel was recently renamed "Evidence Based Wealth." Paul also recently launched a new Patreon site where he will offer access to written articles, books, and individual consultations.
David Hunter: Fed Will Be Caught Between Inflation and Market Crash
Tom welcomes back experienced investment professional David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors.
Talking Points From This Episode
* Semiconductor market and dependency on tech.* Parabolic melt-up into a secular top followed by an 80% bear market* Second wind in housing possible.* Global deflationary bust followed by an inflationary recovery cycle* Dollar weakness now followed by big dollar rally during the bust* Gold & silver emerging from consolidations with big upside directly ahead* Oil predictions and tight supply after the bust.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Semiconductors4:15 - Melt Up Analysis6:21 - Top Pattern?9:25 - High-Risk Economy12:36 - Save Haven Assets?15:00 - Dollar Outlook17:00 - PM's During The Bust18:20 - Inflation To Accelerate22:13 - Spoofing/Manipulation26:42 - Inflation Narratives30:06 - Fed Maintain Control?34:02 - Oil Predictions & ESG40:57 - Industrial Recovery43:36 - Metals & Mining Targets46:33 - Wrap Up
Guest LinksEmail: Dhunter31@gmail.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian
David is Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors. He is an investment professional with 25 years of investment management experience and 21 years as a sell-side strategist with robust macroeconomic analysis and portfolio management expertise. His strong macro capabilities, combined with a contrarian philosophy, have allowed him to forecast economic cycles and spot market trends well ahead of the consensus. Intellectually honest, independent thinker comfortable with charting a course apart from the crowd.
Michael Gayed: Gold Has not YET Responded to Negative Rates
Tom welcomes returning guest Michael Gayed, Portfolio Manager at Toroso Asset Management, to the show. Michael is the author and publisher of the Lead-Lag Report.
Michael notes that this year has been remarkable in many ways. Treasury yields since March have been grinding lower, which indicates a risk-off market. Likewise, lumber to gold has tanked. However, utilities have been underperforming, which is concerning. All of these crashes are occurring in the context of trillions in stimulus. Small caps have underperformed along with emerging markets since February. However, the S&P continues to grind higher. What if the Fed is correct about inflation being transitory? That could suggest a big downside surprise as all of the ordinarily tight correlations seem to be breaking.
We are seeing price inflation but not wage inflation. If inflation is transitory despite such a massive surge in money supply, that will raise concerns about the Fed's ability to influence the market. Does the Fed still have control, or are they trying to push on a string?
Bond market credit spreads are beginning to widen and blow out, which could indicate higher default risks. However, the prevailing narrative may be wrong, and we could be in for a surprise.
There are unintended consequences to a world awash in money. The dovishness of the Fed is likely to promote complacency and exacerbate risk-taking.
Gold tends to have a low correlation to most assets, and currently, gold hasn't responded. There could easily be a rather sudden adjustment up for gold. Volatility is likely to rise, and gold is one thing that many investors move into in a crisis.
Cryptocurrencies make sense as a portion of a portfolio, but there is a lot of overconfidence in the space. The one thing that Bitcoin can't fix is human behavior, and we see that with overleverage and exuberance. Unfortunately, this behavior also exists in the equity market, and the first thing that goes away in a unwind or liquidity crisis is the leverage.
Michael points out that if everything in your portfolio is making you money, you are almost certainly not adequately diversified. The vast majority of people do not realize the concentration risk they are taking. Therefore, it's essential to take a systematic approach to rebalance your portfolio.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:32 - Intermarket Signals4:28 - Correlations9:16 - 'Flation Signals13:46 - Bank Lending17:51 - Gold Rangebound19:32 - Corrections22:20 - Peak Leverage24:50 - Diversification29:53 - Faith & Conviction34:42 - Concluding Thoughts36:26 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Weeks Episode
* Market correlations are breaking.* Inflation and concerns about the Fed's ability to control markets.* Debt and credit and the possibility of black swan events* Exuberance in markets and managing risk in your portfolio.
Guest Links:Website: https://www.leadlagreport.com/Website: http://torosoinv.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/leadlagreport
Michael A. Gayed, CFA, is Portfolio Manager at Toroso Asset Management, an award-winning author and publisher of The Lead-Lag Report.
Michael is a well-respected results-oriented Investment Manager showcasing 15 years of successfully executing initiatives that result in significant revenue growth. In addition, he is known for identifying and implementing various investment strategies to capture market anomalies while maintaining a business mindset beyond portfolio management.
Bob Coleman: Basel III and London’s Relationship with Gold
Tom welcomes Bob Coleman from Idaho Armored Vaults to discuss his article and views on the recent Basel III regulations.
The regulations are difficult to decipher, and you have to study them carefully to get the complete picture. Bob explains the gradual structural changes that have been occurring since 2016 in the banking system. Banks have been exiting positions or altogether leaving the gold business due to these impending rule changes. He explains how the clearing mechanisms function for the banks and how it moves risk to exchanges like the CME.
Basel III attempts to clean up and de-risk bank balance sheets from unallocated metals programs. The regulations don't prevent banks from entering riskier trades, but they require banks to back them with additional collateral reserves. This will increase the banks' costs for conducting such trades. In most cases, the banks will not be the counterparty; instead, the exchanges will take on that risk.
These rule changes do not mean the end of derivative or futures markets, but we will likely see a lessening of bank involvement.
The Basel committee justifies its risk assessment for gold since gold tends to decline when good financial news occurs.
Basel III needs the regulatory bodies of each country to enforce their guidelines. As a result, expect some room for negotiation behind the scenes.
For the LBMA business will continue almost like normal, but the market may require additional transparency from these exchanges. However, for the average investor, this is a gradual long-term structural adjustment and is unlikely to have any sudden impact on the market.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:30 - Basel Breakdown1:26 - Clearing vs. Deposits6:14 - Exchange Oversight8:37 - Derisking the Banks13:00 - Activity Types16:37 - RSF Factors17:27 - Clearing Exempt19:05 - Gold Classification23:21 - More Like Guidelines24:54 - Concluding Thoughts27:02 - Lords of Finance29:08 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
* Demystifying the Basel III regulations.* Why do the Basel regulators consider gold somewhat risky.* Regulations have to be adopted on a country by country regulatory level.* The net overall effect on the gold markets.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/profitsplusidWebsite: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/Article: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/blog/basel-3-and-londons-relationship-with-gold
Bob Coleman is a Registered Investment Advisor since 1992. In 2001, he founded Profits Plus Capital Management, LLC (RIA) and Dollars and Sense Growth Fund. Recognizing the necessity for physical metal storage, he founded Idaho Armored Vaults and Gold Silver Vault in 2008. They are a distinguished and respected leader in the precious metals industry specializing in storage, transportation, shipping logistics, and security.
Collin, host of the Palisades Gold Radio podcast, highlights all aspects of mining and more in this can’t miss podcast! The host and expert guests offer insightful advice and information that is helpful to anyone that listens!
Excellent information on gold and the gold markets. Great insight into the inner workings of what is moving gold prices and the people behind it.
Very salient topics, and very prescient ideas!