39 min
PODCAST: "Hexapodia" Is þe Key Insight XXII: Cuba! "Hexapodia" Is the Key Insight: by Noah Smith & Brad DeLong
-
- Business
Key Insights!:
* Hexapodia!
* Drop the embargo now!
* There is nothing that enables an authoritarian régime—or, indeed, pretty much any type of régime—hang together other than an implacable external enemy.
* For the Cuban military-bureaucratic junta-oligarchy, that implacable external enemy consists of the Cuban exiles in Miami and their descendants
References:
* Alexa van Sickle (2014): Viva la Revolución: Cuban Farmers Re-Gain Control Over Land: ‘As the state loosens its grip on food product… https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2014/mar/11/cuba-agricultural-revolution-farmers>
* Damian Cave: Raúl Castro Thanks U.S., but Reaffirms Communist Rule in Cuba https://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/21/world/americas/castro-thanks-us-but-affirms-cubas-communist-rule.html>
* Marianne Ward and John Devereux (2010): The Road Not Taken: Pre-Revolutionary Cuban Living Standards in Comparative Perspective https://web.archive.org/web/20121217122436/http://econweb.umd.edu/~davis/eventpapers/CUBA.pdf>
* Brian Latell (2005): After Fidel: The Inside Story of Castro’s Régime and Cuba’s Next Leader New York: St. Martin’s Press, 2005 https://books.google.com/books?id=GESwBAAAQBAJ>
* Carmelo Mesa-Lago (2019): There’s Only One Way Out for Cuba’s Dismal Economy https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/28/opinion/cuba-economy.html>
* Carlos Eire: Raúl Castro Leaving Power Won’t Bring Change to Cuba Anytime Soon https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/04/20/raul-castro-leave-power-cuba-wont-bring-change/>
* Noah Smith: Why Cuba Is Having an Economic Crisis https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-cuba-is-having-an-economic-crisis>
&, of course:
* Vernor Vinge: A Fire Upon the Deep https://books.google.com/books?id=fCCWWgZ7d6UC>
Notes:
Post-Fidel Timeline:
2008 February - Raul Castro takes over as president, days after Fidel announces his retirement.
2008 May - Bans on private ownership of mobile phones and computers lifted.
2008 June - Plans are announced to abandon salary equality. The move is seen as a radical departure from the orthodox Marxist economic principles observed since the 1959 revolution. EU lifts diplomatic sanctions imposed on Cuba in 2003 over crackdown on dissidents.
2008 July - In an effort to boost Cuba's lagging food production and reduce dependence on food imports, the government relaxes restrictions on the amount of land available to private farmers.
2008 September - Hurricanes Gustav and Ike inflict worst storm damage in Cuba's recorded history, with 200,000 left homeless and their crops destroyed.
2008 October - State oil company says estimated 20bn barrels in offshore fields, being double previous estimates.
2008 November - Russian President Dmitry Medvedev visits. Two countries conclude new trade and economic accords in sign of strengthening relations. Raul Castro pays reciprocal visit to Russia in January 2009. Chinese President Hu Jintao visits to sign trade and investment accords, including agreements to continue buying Cuban nickel and sugar.
2008 December - Russian warships visit Havana for first time since end of Cold War. Government says 2008 most difficult year for economy since collapse of Soviet Union. Growth nearly halved to 4.3%.
2009 March - Two leading figures from Fidel era, Cabinet Secretary Carlos Lage and Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque, resign after admitting "errors". First government reshuffle since resignation of Fidel Castro. US Congress votes to lift Bush Administration restrictions on Cuban-Americans visiting Havana and sending back money.
2009 April - US President Barack Obama says he wants a new beginning with Cuba.
2009 May - Government unveils austerity programme to try to cut energy use and offset impact of global financial crisis.
2009 June - Organisation of American States (OAS) votes to lift ban on Cuban membership imposed in 1962. Cuba welcomes decision, but says it has no plans to rejoin.
2009 July - Cuba signs agreement with Russia al
Key Insights!:
* Hexapodia!
* Drop the embargo now!
* There is nothing that enables an authoritarian régime—or, indeed, pretty much any type of régime—hang together other than an implacable external enemy.
* For the Cuban military-bureaucratic junta-oligarchy, that implacable external enemy consists of the Cuban exiles in Miami and their descendants
References:
* Alexa van Sickle (2014): Viva la Revolución: Cuban Farmers Re-Gain Control Over Land: ‘As the state loosens its grip on food product… https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2014/mar/11/cuba-agricultural-revolution-farmers>
* Damian Cave: Raúl Castro Thanks U.S., but Reaffirms Communist Rule in Cuba https://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/21/world/americas/castro-thanks-us-but-affirms-cubas-communist-rule.html>
* Marianne Ward and John Devereux (2010): The Road Not Taken: Pre-Revolutionary Cuban Living Standards in Comparative Perspective https://web.archive.org/web/20121217122436/http://econweb.umd.edu/~davis/eventpapers/CUBA.pdf>
* Brian Latell (2005): After Fidel: The Inside Story of Castro’s Régime and Cuba’s Next Leader New York: St. Martin’s Press, 2005 https://books.google.com/books?id=GESwBAAAQBAJ>
* Carmelo Mesa-Lago (2019): There’s Only One Way Out for Cuba’s Dismal Economy https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/28/opinion/cuba-economy.html>
* Carlos Eire: Raúl Castro Leaving Power Won’t Bring Change to Cuba Anytime Soon https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/04/20/raul-castro-leave-power-cuba-wont-bring-change/>
* Noah Smith: Why Cuba Is Having an Economic Crisis https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-cuba-is-having-an-economic-crisis>
&, of course:
* Vernor Vinge: A Fire Upon the Deep https://books.google.com/books?id=fCCWWgZ7d6UC>
Notes:
Post-Fidel Timeline:
2008 February - Raul Castro takes over as president, days after Fidel announces his retirement.
2008 May - Bans on private ownership of mobile phones and computers lifted.
2008 June - Plans are announced to abandon salary equality. The move is seen as a radical departure from the orthodox Marxist economic principles observed since the 1959 revolution. EU lifts diplomatic sanctions imposed on Cuba in 2003 over crackdown on dissidents.
2008 July - In an effort to boost Cuba's lagging food production and reduce dependence on food imports, the government relaxes restrictions on the amount of land available to private farmers.
2008 September - Hurricanes Gustav and Ike inflict worst storm damage in Cuba's recorded history, with 200,000 left homeless and their crops destroyed.
2008 October - State oil company says estimated 20bn barrels in offshore fields, being double previous estimates.
2008 November - Russian President Dmitry Medvedev visits. Two countries conclude new trade and economic accords in sign of strengthening relations. Raul Castro pays reciprocal visit to Russia in January 2009. Chinese President Hu Jintao visits to sign trade and investment accords, including agreements to continue buying Cuban nickel and sugar.
2008 December - Russian warships visit Havana for first time since end of Cold War. Government says 2008 most difficult year for economy since collapse of Soviet Union. Growth nearly halved to 4.3%.
2009 March - Two leading figures from Fidel era, Cabinet Secretary Carlos Lage and Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque, resign after admitting "errors". First government reshuffle since resignation of Fidel Castro. US Congress votes to lift Bush Administration restrictions on Cuban-Americans visiting Havana and sending back money.
2009 April - US President Barack Obama says he wants a new beginning with Cuba.
2009 May - Government unveils austerity programme to try to cut energy use and offset impact of global financial crisis.
2009 June - Organisation of American States (OAS) votes to lift ban on Cuban membership imposed in 1962. Cuba welcomes decision, but says it has no plans to rejoin.
2009 July - Cuba signs agreement with Russia al
39 min