Soviet General Avoids Global Nuclear War Seven Deadly Stupidities
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- Careers
In 1983, at the peak of the Cold War, Petrov was the officer on duty when the Soviet’s early warning system indicated a launch of missiles from the U.S. was targeted at the Soviet Union. The system told him five missiles were inbound. The missiles, each with multiple nuclear warheads, would strike and detonate in the Soviet Union in less than twenty minutes.
The way the Soviet system worked at the time, if Petrov followed protocol and immediately reported the incoming missiles up the chain to the Soviet command, the automatic response would be a full-scale nuclear retaliatory strike on the U.S. The end of the world. Not cool.
But something was not quite right in Petrov’s mind, so he hesitated to report the strike up the chain. He started to think deliberately, assemble data, and go full-on Kahneman System 2. Remember, his basis was U.S. vs Soviet Union, and it was winner-take-all.
Petrov thought, Why just five missiles and not an all-out strike from the U.S. on the Soviet Union? Five missiles would be akin to the U.S. “poking the bear,” and the Soviets would respond with overwhelming force.
Strategically, the five-missile attack made no sense to Petrov.
In 1983, at the peak of the Cold War, Petrov was the officer on duty when the Soviet’s early warning system indicated a launch of missiles from the U.S. was targeted at the Soviet Union. The system told him five missiles were inbound. The missiles, each with multiple nuclear warheads, would strike and detonate in the Soviet Union in less than twenty minutes.
The way the Soviet system worked at the time, if Petrov followed protocol and immediately reported the incoming missiles up the chain to the Soviet command, the automatic response would be a full-scale nuclear retaliatory strike on the U.S. The end of the world. Not cool.
But something was not quite right in Petrov’s mind, so he hesitated to report the strike up the chain. He started to think deliberately, assemble data, and go full-on Kahneman System 2. Remember, his basis was U.S. vs Soviet Union, and it was winner-take-all.
Petrov thought, Why just five missiles and not an all-out strike from the U.S. on the Soviet Union? Five missiles would be akin to the U.S. “poking the bear,” and the Soviets would respond with overwhelming force.
Strategically, the five-missile attack made no sense to Petrov.