Ship Recycling Market Update Week 25 2026 | Peace Signed, Brent Drops to $78 & Monsoon Controls Supply

The global ship recycling market has entered a new chapter as the United States and Iran sign an interim peace agreement, reopening the Strait of Hormuz after more than 100 days of closure.

In Week 25 of 2026, Brent crude collapsed to approximately USD 78 per barrel, erasing the entire war premium that had carried prices above USD 126 in late April. WTI also eased toward USD 75, while sanctions relief and the restart of halted Gulf oil production shifted market focus from supply disruption to potential oversupply.

For the global ship recycling industry, this is a major turning point. The two forces that kept older vessels trading instead of recycling, high bunker costs and strong freight earnings, are now weakening together. The Baltic Dry Index eased to around 2,653 on June 17, while daily Capesize earnings fell to approximately USD 35,162 from the late-May high near USD 49,511.

However, the timing remains difficult. Although peace has reopened the sea route and reduced the bunker-cost floor, the Indian subcontinent is now deep in the monsoon season. Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan continue to show demand, financing, and yard appetite, but beaching activity remains limited by weather.

This week’s episode examines:

• The interim US-Iran peace agreement and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
• Brent crude collapsing toward USD 78 and the evaporation of the war premium
• Why lower bunker costs could finally release older vessels for recycling
• The continued cooling of dry bulk freight and Capesize earnings
• Why the monsoon now controls the beaching calendar across South Asia
• Bangladesh’s stable Taka, steady steel prices, and strong post-monsoon outlook
• India’s Rupee rally, softer Alang steel, and improving macro position
• Pakistan’s firm Rupee, strong steel pricing, and fading Gulf proximity premium
• Turkey’s Lira breaking 46 per dollar and Aliaga’s continued EU-regulated niche
• Why the second half of 2026 may bring the strongest candidate flow since February

Key market takeaway:
Peace has been signed, the Strait of Hormuz has reopened, Brent has returned near pre-war levels, and the freight premium is cooling. The deferred wave of recycling candidates is now being primed, but the monsoon remains the immediate constraint. The ships are free to move, but the beaches must wait for the rains to ease.

Peace is signed. The premium is gone. The ships are moving. But the rains reign.

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