Mark Rzepczynski joins us this week to discuss ‘algorithm aversion’ and the science of how ‘model anxiety’ shows investors to be naturally wary of rules-based systems. We also discuss how to evaluate momentum data, how a busy week for market news can still be a quiet week for Trend Followers, the benefits of moving away from ‘peak complexity’ as soon as possible, why having too many filters can expose a trader to large opportunity costs, the optimal percentage amount of risk per trade, as well as portfolio construction versus signal generation and which is more important.
In this episode, we discuss:
How behavioural finance leaves investors under-allocated to Trend Following strategies
How to perceive momentum data
Why the steady flow of market news often has little value for Trend Followers
The need to avoid too many filters in your system
How much should be risked per trade
Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website).
Follow Mark on https://twitter.com/mrzepczynski (Twitter).
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00:00 – Intro
01:49 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes
03:02 – Macro recap from Niels
04:48 – Weekly review of performance
11:59 – Q1; James: What are your views on momentum indicators diverging against price action?
24:56 – Q2; Frank: What is your view on the relationship between the stop and the look-back period?
28:52 – Q3; John: Is the 2% rule still a popular and good risk-per-trade today?
35:56 – Q4; Mark: Would you ever not take a trade because it seems so absurd logically?
40:11 – Q5; Frederick: Do you think people are underinvested in CTAs because they want to feel in more ‘in control’ than a systematic approach would allow them to?
45:34 – The calculus of business cycles
48:51 – Narrative ambiguity versus model clarity
50:53 – How to handle depreciating cash
54:04 – The power of weather shocks
58:01 – Do we need inflation futures?
59:58 – Curve play in bonds
01:02:11 – Hayek co-ordination problem and recovery
01:04:57 – Benchmark performance update
01:05:57 – Next week we have Richard Brennan joining us on the show, so send in your questions