From financial markets and politics to business and social issues, Dan Ferris and our Stansberry Analysts offer candid discussion on today’s most important headlines. Each week you’ll hear exclusive interviews with guest investment experts, authors, and top thinkers such as Jim Rogers, Kevin O’Leary, Glenn Beck, PJ O’Rourke, and Jim Grant.
The Stansberry Investor Hour is produced by Stansberry Research, LLC.
Don't Let Your Ego Drive You to Make Bad Decisions | Harley Bassman
Dan and Corey kick things off by discussing bitcoin hitting a new multiyear high. They also critique a popular bullish argument for bitcoin, which is based off the U.S. dollar collapsing. After, they talk about the S&P 500 Index surpassing 5,000 for the first time ever and whether this level is sustainable in the long term. (0:40)
Next, Harley Bassman of Simplify Asset Management joins the conversation and explains a concept called "convexity." He covers the three kinds of risk in bond investing, why short convexity is always lurking during market downturns, and why negative convexity is so difficult for investors to process. (24:53)
Harley also goes into detail on mortgage-backed securities funds. He describes what mortgage bonds are, why they yield more than corporate bonds, and how the Federal Reserve plays a huge role in all of this. (32:20)
Lastly, Harley talks about Simplify and how it offers a unique service by jamming derivatives of all kinds (futures, options, etc.) into ETFs so civilians can invest in them. He also discusses what it was like working at Merrill Lynch during the great financial crisis, gives general investing advice, and explains what pin risk is. (48:55)
It's Time to Upgrade Capitalism
Dan and Corey kick off the show by discussing debt spirals, death spirals, their effect on
things like GDP and economic growth, and the increasing reliance on debt spending. They
point out that the U.S. government's annual interest payment on debt will soon surpass the
budget for national defense. Dan also speculates that the government is using illegal
immigration as a means to depress wages. (0:41)
Next, crypto expert Eric Wade joins the conversation by discussing his current thoughts on
the crypto market as a whole. He notes that the U.S. just approved bitcoin spot ETFs, which
will allow investors to profit from bitcoin without actually holding the token. He also brings
up the bitcoin halving that's happening this April, AI's role in crypto, and how crypto is being
used to solve real-world problems. Eric briefly name-drops two such cryptos that have real-
world applications today. (22:08)After, he goes into detail on his new book called America vs. Americans: How Capitalism Has
Failed a Capitalist Nation and What We Can Do About It. This book focuses on American
"laborism," the shortcomings of our current capitalist system, and how all of this could be
improved. Eric describes that government, economics, and politics are a lot closer together
than they should be. He explores the history of capitalism and talks about the glaring flaws
of the economic system that preceded it – mercantilism. (35:30)
Eric then transitions into talking about laborism and how it could be an upgrade from
capitalism. He spends the rest of the episode detailing how it could pull millions of folks out
of poverty, why it would be so closely tied to education, and the fact it would call for a hard
currency and a smaller government with less government intervention. As he explains, it
could solve many of the country's problems. (42:35)
Successful Trading is the Antithesis of Human Nature
Dan and Corey begin the show by discussing evidence that we're still in a bear market. They bring up equal-weight indexes fizzling out since December, the now "Magnificent Six" tech stocks still dominating, and the possibility of a decade long sideways market.
After, contrarian trader Jason Shapiro of digital publishing company Crowded Market Report joins the conversation and gives an overview of his trading style, his financial journey, and how his strategy differs from many other traders'. While others are looking to ride the trend, Jason explains that he's looking to "fade" it and find when the trend will turn. When speaking specifically about putting the risk-reward ratio in his favor over time, he says the discounting mechanism in the market is not price – it's participation.
This segues into a discussion about how Jason's process works. He gives advice to individual investors who are just starting out, including warning of the dangers of following trends and "copy trading." He also details how trading goes against human nature.
Then, Jason discusses automation in his field of work – when he uses it and when he ignores its advice – and provides some examples of his strategy in action. He emphasizes that market confirmation should always come first
Lastly, Jason explains why he's so adamant about sharing his approaches and techniques with everyday investors that they can't find in traditional financial media. And you won't want to miss Jason's answer to the final question... He shares what he believes is the real secret behind making money in the markets.
The Easiest Way to Rank Almost 5,000 Stocks
Dan and Corey kick things off by discussing Argentine President Javier Milei's incendiary speech at the recent World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. They start by quoting some passages from it and covering the main themes – from the negative consequences of government intervention to potentially abolishing the central bank. After, they talk about why this type of rhetoric from a politician would never fly in the U.S., even though it reflects a lot of people's feelings.
Next, Stansberry Research Director of Research Matt Weinschenk joins the conversation and elaborates on what type of investor he considers himself to be. He brings up value investing, the importance of bottom-up business-quality analysis, and how he uses quantitative tools to find the best businesses.
Matt then explains the "Stansberry Score," which ranks nearly 5,000 stocks from first to last. It assigns each stock both an overall number and letter grade, plus letter grades for financials, capital efficiency, and valuation. Investors can use it to check ratings on stocks they may be interested in, or they can use it to find hidden gems. If you're interested in learning more about this tool and trying it for free, you can check it out at StansberryAnnouncement.com.
Matt also goes into detail on The Quant Portfolio. This new portfolio is fully optimized and uses Stansberry Score data to evaluate each stock. Entirely using computers and algorithms, it looks at the relationships between each stock and picks out the best ones that will work together to provide the highest returns. And so far, it's blowing the market out of the water! Matt emphasizes that in the past two years of live testing, The Quant Portfolio is up 20%, while the market is only up 5.
Lastly, Matt talks all things econometrics – what it is, whether it's worth studying, and its interplay with machine learning.
Get Ready for Volatility warns Greg Diamond
Dan and Corey kick off the show by discussing car-rental company Hertz selling one-third of its electric-vehicle ("EV") fleet and planning to reinvest in gas-powered cars. They talk about the reasons for this move, why EVs might not be a popular choice as rentals, signs that oil and gas companies are still thriving, and how the green-energy transition could lead to higher inflation.
Next, welcome Stansberry Research analyst Greg Diamond joins the conversation and analyzes the current volatility in the markets. He explains that investors and the financial media believe the Federal Reserve has beaten inflation and is going to start cutting rates soon. But as Greg notes, the opposite is most likely to happen. He also goes into detail on his study of cycles.
Then, Greg predicts important inflection points for 2024, describes how legendary trader W.D. Gann influenced his trading strategy, and explores the potential ramifications of the Fed ending its bank lending program in March. He also details why he'll be trading sectors for the first half of the year rather than individual stocks.
Lastly, Greg talks about correlations between the S&P 500 and specific exchange-traded funds. He assesses what it means for the markets when divergences happen and how extreme volatility leads to great buying opportunities. As Greg sums things up, "I think it's going to be a rough ride for bulls and bears."
Don't Place all Your Chips on One Outcome
Dan and Corey begin the show by discussing Disney. They cover the company's ongoing
proxy battle with Nelson Peltz, its recent deal with activist investor ValueAct Capital, the
negative impacts of its "wokeism," the new Star Wars director's controversial past
comments, and whether the stock is worth buying today. (0:40)
Next, Jeff Muhlenkamp joins the conversation and gives his reaction to a "surprising" 2023.
Plus, he talks about what's in store for the markets this year, why it's unclear whether we're
headed for a recession or not since, and how you should structure your portfolio to protect
you no matter what happens. (26:23)
Then, Jeff explains what he learned from the great financial crisis in 2008 and how he applies
it to his investing strategy today. He gives investors advice on everything from keeping
some cash on hand to handling stocks that soar quickly. (35:40)
Lastly, Jeff discusses regional banking (44:00), two notable stock buys (46:47), and his
process for picking stocks (51:31). He details which metrics he looks at, why financial
newsletters are good places to look for ideas, and how to know when to exit a stock.
Timely and informative and actionable
Am an alliance subscriber to Stansberry - love the podcast as it’s full of information that one can act on. The variety of guests that are brought on gives us a wide choice of views and actionable thought provoking ideas. Thank you!
Pleasantly surprised when I seen Bubba was the guest, awesome guy, so this means this podcast is a straight shooter as well!
I enjoyed your podcast with Austin but I have a question I’d like you to address. Soros may be a great investor but is a scourge on humanity, is there never a time this comes under consideration? He is responsible for the deaths of countless people by funding DA’s that let killers loose and is a very committed Marxist Oligarch! Please comment. Farmer Dan