The Contrarian Investor Podcast Nathaniel E. Baker

This episode was released to premium subscribers -- without ads or announcements -- on Sept. 18. Find out about premium subscriptions here.
Phil Pecsok, founder of Anacapa Advisors, joins the podcast to supply a primer on contrarian investing: What it is, what catalysts to look for, and some valuable lessons from his 30-year career on Wall Street.
Content Highlights
The guest provides his views of contrarian investing and how he uses it (1:27); Examples of blaring contrarian signals from past cycles (9:00); The Fed is likely to stay hawkish (13:14); The 'Rule of 3' in contrarian investing as illustrated in a story from early in the guest's career (16:37); His views on cryptos (24:13); Background on the guest (30:01); Sports betting is an efficient way to lose money, unless you're running the book. But sometimes there are sometimes contrarian opportunities (37:46); What keeps the guest up at night? Nothing in particular, though stocks are probably overbought even after the recent sell-off (45:17). For more on the guest and his firm, visit the website AnacapaAdvisors.com.

This podcast episode was recorded on Aug. 29 with a 'highlight' clip of the most actionable insights released to premium subscribers that same day. Premium subscribers then received the full episode -- without ads or interruptions -- the following day, on Aug. 30. To find out more about premium subscriptions, visit our Substack.
Ayesha Tariq, co-founder of MacroVisor, rejoins the podcast to discuss why she is expecting a hard landing for the US economy along with other contrarian views she has about the Federal Reserve and global financial markets.
Content Highlights
The 'soft landing' scenario has effectively become the base case. Why that's wrong (1:32); Unlike many (most?) recessions, this one will not be preceded by a Fed-induced credit event. For this reason, it will be milder (4:44); The Federal Reserve is likely to hike at its next meeting on Sept. 20. That will be its last hike this cycle (8:53); The US downturn will not necessarily lead to a global recession (12:58); The outlook for commodities, specifically copper, is bullish despite the bearish economic outlook (18:48); Rate hikes might be off the table, but quantitative tightening could still be incoming in 2024 (23:45); New segment: Listener questions. Whoever's questions are read wins a free Contrarian mug. First up: what to make of Nvidia and AI (26:36); Next listener question: what to look for in bank earnings? (31:42); One area of the stock market where the guest is particularly bullish (36:35). For more about the guest, visit her website MacroVisor.com or follow her on Twitter/X.

Not investment advice.

This podcast was released to premium subscribers on Aug. 24. Become a premium subscriber on Substack or Supercast. 
Cormac Kinney, founder and CEO of Diamond Standard, joins the podcast to discuss the concept of diamonds as an asset class: why they haven't become an investable commodity like other precious metals, how that may be changing, and what investors can expect in terms of correlation to other assets and alpha.
Content Highlights
Why haven't diamonds become an investable asset class like precious metals or other commodities? (1:11); Some of the economics behind diamond production and why supply is dropping dramatically (4:45); How Diamond Standard is turning diamonds into a fungible commodity (this is where the bars in the cover photo comes in) (7:55); What are diamonds used for practically, other than jewelry? (11:06); Diamonds' correlation to other asset classes over time (15:33); Diamond futures are coming. That will introduce much-needed liquidity (21:45); Background on the guest (29:30); More About the Guest
Website: DiamondStandard.co; Twitter: @DiamondStandard and @CormacKinney; LinkedIn: DiamondStandard; Instagram: @DiamondStandard.co; FaceBook: DiamondStandardCo.

This episode was recorded on Aug. 15 and released to premium subscribers that same day. Become a premium subscriber here.
Brooker Belcourt, founder of Covey.io, rejoins the podcast to discuss the three-pronged consensus that the investment platform's best analysts are picking up right now and the 20 names that have emerged...
(Not investment advice).
Content Highlights
What are the best Covey analysts picking up right now? (1:37) The platform's 20 best positions are split into four buckets: growth winners like Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA), healthcare (three names including biopharma), 'high-quality' names like Autozone (AZO) and Disney (DIS), and volatility expressed through the levered ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) (4:55); What to make of the long volatility bet? (9:40); Equally interesting is the type of exposure that is absent from the best 20: no crypto, no retail stocks, nothing international... (16:04); More About the Guest
Website: Covey.io; Twitter: @CoveyInvest; LinkedIn: CoveyInvest.

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers the same day it was recorded. Become a premium subscriber by signing up on our Substack or Supercast.
Peter Kraus, founder and CEO of Aperture Investors, joins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy, why he expects the 'soft landing' to occur, but why it will quickly give way to renewed concerns.
Content Highlights
An economic soft landing is likely, but will be transitional (1:38); The Fed is unlikely to 'break more stuff' as this spring's banking crisis was a short-term liquidity crisis that has since been resolved. But refinancing will be a problem (4:12); Inflation will be more persistent and 'sticky' than markets are pricing in right now. This doesn't leave bonds in a very good position (7:20); When it comes to stocks, expect volatility until late autumn at which point higher interest rates will start to bite (16:17); The consumer, and consumer stocks, will lead the rebound starting as early as December (19:33); Background on the guest (26:06); China's driver of commodity prices may be over (35:42). More on the Aperture Investors
Website: ApertureInvestors.com; Twitter: @ApertureInvstrs; LinkedIn: Aperture-Investors; Instagram: @ApertureInvestors.

This podcast episode was made availableto premium subscribers on July 25 without ads or announcements. There are many other benefits to being a premium subscriber. Sign up through Supercast or our Substack.
Peter Atwater joins the podcast to discuss the ideas from his latest book, "The Confidence Map: Charting a Path From Chaos to Clarity." Crucially, he tells listeners why investor confidence is today fast approaching the 'invulnerable extreme' that indicates a top in markets...
Content Highlights
Investor preferences change dramatically with their confidence levels. Generally high confidence corresponds to preference for abstract items (NFTs, cryptos) whilst low confidence yields a preference for more practical things (2:48) Yes, magazine covers can be a reliable contrarian indicator (5:52); Investor confidence levels are rapidly approaching the 'invulnerable extreme' with AI hype and a bull market for luxury goods (10:08); How to deal with the question of timing, and signs to look for when seeking to identify a top (15:17); When it comes to cryptos, the most recent mania has passed and the prospects of another round is remote (18:16); Background on the guest (24:10); Investor mania is not defined so much by overconfidence but invulnerability (27:37); Where does this leave investors in terms of asset allocation? Introducing 'sentiment diversification' (30:08); Natural gas may be at an inflection point that presages a really (32:19). More on the Guest
Website: PeterAtwater.com; Twitter: @Peter_Atwater; Ways to order the book here. Not investment advice.