The Contrarian Investor Podcast

Nathaniel E. Baker
  • 4.2 (43)
  • INVESTING
  • UPDATED MONTHLY
The Contrarian Investor Podcast

The Contrarian Investor podcast gives voice to those who challenge a prevailing narrative in financial markets. Each episode features an interview with a hedge fund manager, investor, economist or other market participant. The goal is to educate all listeners with an interest in asset allocation and ultimately to provide actionable ideas to the institutional investor community.

  1. NOV 21

    Opportunities in Closed-End Municipal Bond Funds: Jonathan Browne, RiverNorth Capital

    Jonathan Browne, portfolio manager at RiverNorth Capital, joins the podcast to discuss investment opportunities in municipal bonds, specifically through the closed-end fund structure.   This podcast episode was made available to premium subscribers the day after recording and without ads or announcements. To become a premium subscriber, visit our Substack. Content Highlights Quick primer on closed-end funds and their difference with mutual funds and ETFs (1:18); Municipal bonds and what to look for there (16:01); What kind of yield can investors expect from this asset class? (23:31); Background on the guest (26:50); Rising interest rates and inflation are certainly a risk for muni bonds, but the risk/reward is set up constructively... (30:59); Muni closed-end funds: a contrarian pick (37:28) For more on the guest, visit the website RiverNorth.com

    41 min

  2. NOV 1

    US Election 'Black Swans' Include Significant Chance of Political Violence

    https://contrarianpod.com/content/podcasts/season6/us-election-black-swans-chances-political-violence/Dr. Mike Blyth of risk services company Sigma7, joins the podcast to discuss 'unknown unknowns' facing next week's US election. Blyth is a career national security professional, having worked for US and British civil and military operations globally. This podcast episode was recorded on Oct. 30, 2024 and was made available to premium subscribers that day. To learn about premium subscription options, visit our Substack. Content Highlights Background on the guest and why he is qualified to speak of all things national and international security (1:42); Main concerns entering the election. External and internal agitators have raised the risk of political violence (4:57); Gaming out the various scenarios. Almost all involve violence, especially if former President Donald Trump is not elected (7:26); The narrative on social media and elsewhere is consistent with what typically presages violence. "It's a tinderbox. We're waiting for the flame to be lit" (11:26); What parts of the economy might be most at risk and which might be more resilient (16:49); What about geopolitical risks? (20:42). For more about the guest, visit the website S7risk.com.

    32 min

  3. OCT 30

    Tariffs, Strong US Dollar, Stocks Rally, M&A: What to Expect From Trump-onomics 2.0 (Should It Happen)

    Marc Chapman of Bannockburn Global Forex rejoins the podcast to discuss all things US election and the impact a Trump victory would have on economics and financial markets. This podcast episode was recorded Monday, Oct. 28, 2024 and was made available for premium subscribers that same day. More information about premium subscriptions is available on our Substack. Content Highlights The impact of a Trump victory next Tuesday is seen as greater as the impact of a Harris victory. What this means for markets and the economy (2:11); What if Trump doesn't win? That has become the contrarian take (3:45); How it all might affect Mexico, the US' largest trading partner (5:40); The US-Canada-Mexico free trade agreement is up for review next year. Expect more concessions from Mexico regardless of who's in the White House (and Congress) (12:22); However the outlook is not all bad for all Mexican securities... (15:40); Concerns Trump will try to limit the Federal Reserve's independence (19:38); Don't overlook the possibility of a recession early in the next president's term (25:44); Trump victory may lead to more mergers and acquisitions (26:50). More From the Guest Website: MarcToMarket.com; X: @marcmakingsense.

    35 min

  4. OCT 23

    Trends Point to Trump Victory, Republican Sweep: Flip Pidot

    Flip Pidot, founder of American Civics Exchange, joins the podcast to discuss trends in polling and prediction markets and why these are increasingly pointing to victory for Donald Trump -- and a Republican sweep of Congress. This podcast episode was recorded on Oct. 22, 2024, and made available for premium subscribers that same day -- without ads or announcements. More information on premium membership options is available on our Substack page. Content Highlights What started as a toss-up has quickly moved to resounding victory for Trump (1:38); About $40 million-worth of pro-Trump bets have flooded prediction markets in recent weeks (4:55); Early vote data is also clearly favoring Trump (12:58); Background on the guest (23:05); If the outcome of the election is close, either side is likely to immediately challenge the results in court (34:30); Fortunately, the guest views the likelihood as remote (40:28) More From the Guest Website: AmCiv.com; X: @FlipPidot; Prediction/polling aggregator: TheSupermodel.com.

    48 min

  5. OCT 1

    The Bull Case for Industrial Commodities, AI, and More, With Tony Greer

    Tony Greer of TG Macro joins the podcast to discuss his bullish view on industrial commodities, especially oil, AI, the upcoming presidential election, and more. This podcast was recorded on Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers the next day. More information on premium subscriptions is available on our Substack. There are a few points in this episode where adult language is used. Listener discretion is advised. Content Highlights Why energy commodities, precious and base metals are all set up to rally (1:31); China's stimulus package boosted industrial metals. The bounce should not be limited to the short term... (4:57); There are a number of ways to express the 'long commodities' trade. ETFs may be the simplest... (8:59) The bullish case for uranium (10:37); Don't fade the AI story (14:20); The inevitable cryptocurrency discussion (17:04); Background on the guest (22:30); Listener question: What's the inflection point for a move higher in industrial commodities? (26:10); Election discussion (28:17). More Information on the Guest Website: TgMacro.com; Twitter/X: @TgMacro; Substack: @TgMacro.

    34 min

  6. SEP 25

    Finding Contrarian Investors Among US Presidents Past and Present

    Hear podcast episodes without ads and before regular listeners by subscribing to our premium offering. Megan Gorman joins the podcast to discuss her book 'All the Presidents' Money; How the Men Who Governed America Governed Their Money,' in an effort to locate the contrarian investors. There are several, led by Gerald Ford. The guest also discusses the investments of year's presidential and vice presidential candidates. Content Highlights The most contrarian investor among US presidents? Gerald Ford, the man who pioneered sitting on corporate boards and the presidential speaker circuit (1:24); Perhaps unsurprisingly US presidents were quite conservative with their investments, Ford included... (6:37); Many presidential investments were also contrarian by avoiding (individual) public equities (11:04); Franklin D. Roosevelt was one of several presidents who entered the White House as wealthy individuals -- and blew some of it by failing to perform basic due diligence (15:51); Another oft-overlooked president, Calvin Coolidge, supplies a classic example of mis-timing the market... (21:11); What we know about the investments of this year's candidates for president and vice president (25:52); Another very unsuccessful investor: Ulysses S. Grant. One of the most successful: George Washington (37:14); Presidents probably don't need to own individual stocks. Vice President Kamala Harris exemplifies this (47:18) More Information on the Guest Website: AllThePresidentsMoney.com; X: @Megan_E_Gorman.

    49 min

  7. SEP 10

    Fed's Next Move, Trump 2.0, Opportunities in AI, Argentina: James Fishback

    James Fishback, founder of Azoria Partners, joins the podcast to discuss the Fed's shift in monetary policy, opportunities afforded by another Trump administration, why AI hype is real, and a host of other issues. This podcast was recorded on Sept. 4 and was being made available to premium subscribers that same day. More information about premium subscriptions is available here. NB: The guest is outspoken on certain political beliefs discussed here. These views are not necessarily shared by the host or the Contrarian Investor Podcast more generally.   Content Highlights The Federal Reserve is expect to cut 200 basis points off of interest rates when all is said and done. The reality should fall well short of that measure... (1:37); The US is economy growing in aggregate. Pain points are felt among lower socio-economic classes (4:44); The major change will not come from a major shift in monetary policy but what happens fiscally, with the November election (9:16); How to trade a Republican sweep? There's an acronym: T-R-U-M-P (10:54); Many companies have taken advantage of cheap labor supplied by illegal immigration. Their stocks will suffer once this is rolled back... (15:31); AI is real. Productivity gains will be massive (17:44); Crypto discussion. The best opportunity for bulls may to bet on lower volatility for Bitcoin... (22:47); Background on the guest (28:33); Azoria's first ETF will be called the Meritocracy Fund. The strategy (33:38); Another opportunity: Argentina (43:18) More Information on the Guest Website: AzoriaPartners.com; Substack: HeadofMacro.com; X: @j_fishback; LinkedIn: Azoria-Partners

    50 min

  8. AUG 21

    Economic Data Pointing in Right Direction, for Now: Colin White, Verecan Capital

    Colin White of Verecan Capital Management joins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy and why he considers the likelihood of a 'soft landing' to have increased... This podcast was recorded on Wednesday, Aug. 14, 2024 and made available for premium subscribers the following day. More information on premium subscriptions is avalailable on our Substack page.. Content Highlights Economic indicators are pointing to increased chances of a 'soft landing'... (1:10); The Federal Reserve (and other central banks) have 'bullets in their gun' in the form of interest rate cuts, should the need arise. Another reason for confidence (3:27); Employment numbers are the most important datapoint to watch right now (6:41); The Age of Finfluencers and dangers it has wrought (14:32); Central banks have a responsibility to act in the best interests of the general public. If they stray from that responsibility, the structure that governs central banks can change (19:29); Background on the guest (23:31); No, real estate is not always a good investment (34:11); AI discussion (37:41). More on the Guest: Website: Verecan.com; Podcast: Barenaked Money; LinkedIn.

    43 min
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4.2
out of 5
43 Ratings

About

The Contrarian Investor podcast gives voice to those who challenge a prevailing narrative in financial markets. Each episode features an interview with a hedge fund manager, investor, economist or other market participant. The goal is to educate all listeners with an interest in asset allocation and ultimately to provide actionable ideas to the institutional investor community.

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