56 min
The Future Of Music Business With Economist Will Page Trapital
-
- Music
One of the most unique insights into the state of the music business today doesn’t come from a record label exec. Not from an agent. Not from an artist. No, it comes from Scottish economist Will Page, who served that role for Spotify from 2012 to 2019 — a period of explosive growth for the streaming giant. But if you ask Page about streaming’s future, he’s not nearly as optimistic as the rest of the industry. “The party has to come to an end,” as he told me on this episode of Trapital.
Page believes the music industry is transitioning from a “herbivore market” to a “carnivore” one. In other words, future growth will not come from brand-new customers — it’ll come from the streaming services eating into each other’s market share. Not only has subscriber counts possibly tapped out in Page’s opinion, but streaming services have also put a ceiling on revenues by charging only $9.99, a price that hasn’t budged in 20 years despite giant leaps in technology and music catalog size.
That against-the-grain prediction was one of many Will shared with me during our in-depth interview. But he has plenty more research- and experience-backed thoughts on touring, vinyl records, Web 3.0, and everything in between. Believe me, this is an interview you don’t want to miss. Here’s everything we covered:
[0:00] The 3 R’s in the business of music
[3:15] Will’s experience being a DJ
[7:10] Lopsided Growth Of Music Streaming In Global Markets
[8:59] Vinyl Records $1.5 Billion Recovery
[13:18] Will’s Bearish View About The Future Of Streaming
[15:22] Ongoing Price War Between Streaming Services
[22:59] The Changing Economics Of Music Touring
[26:16] Performing At Festivals Vs. Tours
[30:50] The Evolution Of Music Publishing
[34:32] How Music Revenue Gets Distributed To Publishers
[37:35] What Does A “Post-Spotify Economy” Look Like?
[40:00] Will’s Biggest Issues With Web3
[47:01] The Current Business Landscape Of Hip-Hop
Listen to Will’s mix right here: https://www.mixcloud.com/willpagesnc/we-aint-done-with-2021/
Check out Will’s Podcast, Bubble Trouble, where he breaks down how financial markets really work.
Read Will’s book, Tarzan Economics: Eight Principles for Pivoting Through Disruption.
Listen: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | SoundCloud | Stitcher | Overcast | Amazon | Google Podcasts | Pocket Casts | RSS
Host: Dan Runcie, @RuncieDan, trapital.co
Guests: Will Page, @willpageauthor
Trapital is home for the business of hip-hop. Gain the latest insights from hip-hop’s biggest players by reading Trapital’s free weekly memo.
_____
TRANSCRIPT
Will Page 00:00
The best way I could do this is, I just talk about ratios. There are three R's in this business, there's share of revenue, there's ratio, and as rates pool, they mean different things. Most experts get confused with the three R's.
I'm gonna stick to ratios that is, if I give the label $1, how much do I give the publisher, the software, there's collective management organization? So we stick to the conventional streaming model today, I would say that you get the record label $1, you're giving the publishing side of the fence 24 cents, you know, a decent chunk of change, but still the poorer cousin of the record label. On YouTube, I think it could be as high as 35 cents, 40 cents even because there's a sink right involved in those deals.
Dan Runcie 00:46
Hey, welcome to the Trapital Podcast. I'm your host and the founder of Trapital, Dan Runcie. This podcast is your place to gain insights from executives in music, media, entertainment, and more, who are taking hip hop culture to the next level.
Today's guest is Will Page. He is the author of a book I cannot recommend enough. It's called Tarzan Economics. It's a guide to pivoting through disruption. This is a must-read if you're working in music, media, or entertainment. He is also a Visiting Fellow at the London School of Economics. He is the former Chie
One of the most unique insights into the state of the music business today doesn’t come from a record label exec. Not from an agent. Not from an artist. No, it comes from Scottish economist Will Page, who served that role for Spotify from 2012 to 2019 — a period of explosive growth for the streaming giant. But if you ask Page about streaming’s future, he’s not nearly as optimistic as the rest of the industry. “The party has to come to an end,” as he told me on this episode of Trapital.
Page believes the music industry is transitioning from a “herbivore market” to a “carnivore” one. In other words, future growth will not come from brand-new customers — it’ll come from the streaming services eating into each other’s market share. Not only has subscriber counts possibly tapped out in Page’s opinion, but streaming services have also put a ceiling on revenues by charging only $9.99, a price that hasn’t budged in 20 years despite giant leaps in technology and music catalog size.
That against-the-grain prediction was one of many Will shared with me during our in-depth interview. But he has plenty more research- and experience-backed thoughts on touring, vinyl records, Web 3.0, and everything in between. Believe me, this is an interview you don’t want to miss. Here’s everything we covered:
[0:00] The 3 R’s in the business of music
[3:15] Will’s experience being a DJ
[7:10] Lopsided Growth Of Music Streaming In Global Markets
[8:59] Vinyl Records $1.5 Billion Recovery
[13:18] Will’s Bearish View About The Future Of Streaming
[15:22] Ongoing Price War Between Streaming Services
[22:59] The Changing Economics Of Music Touring
[26:16] Performing At Festivals Vs. Tours
[30:50] The Evolution Of Music Publishing
[34:32] How Music Revenue Gets Distributed To Publishers
[37:35] What Does A “Post-Spotify Economy” Look Like?
[40:00] Will’s Biggest Issues With Web3
[47:01] The Current Business Landscape Of Hip-Hop
Listen to Will’s mix right here: https://www.mixcloud.com/willpagesnc/we-aint-done-with-2021/
Check out Will’s Podcast, Bubble Trouble, where he breaks down how financial markets really work.
Read Will’s book, Tarzan Economics: Eight Principles for Pivoting Through Disruption.
Listen: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | SoundCloud | Stitcher | Overcast | Amazon | Google Podcasts | Pocket Casts | RSS
Host: Dan Runcie, @RuncieDan, trapital.co
Guests: Will Page, @willpageauthor
Trapital is home for the business of hip-hop. Gain the latest insights from hip-hop’s biggest players by reading Trapital’s free weekly memo.
_____
TRANSCRIPT
Will Page 00:00
The best way I could do this is, I just talk about ratios. There are three R's in this business, there's share of revenue, there's ratio, and as rates pool, they mean different things. Most experts get confused with the three R's.
I'm gonna stick to ratios that is, if I give the label $1, how much do I give the publisher, the software, there's collective management organization? So we stick to the conventional streaming model today, I would say that you get the record label $1, you're giving the publishing side of the fence 24 cents, you know, a decent chunk of change, but still the poorer cousin of the record label. On YouTube, I think it could be as high as 35 cents, 40 cents even because there's a sink right involved in those deals.
Dan Runcie 00:46
Hey, welcome to the Trapital Podcast. I'm your host and the founder of Trapital, Dan Runcie. This podcast is your place to gain insights from executives in music, media, entertainment, and more, who are taking hip hop culture to the next level.
Today's guest is Will Page. He is the author of a book I cannot recommend enough. It's called Tarzan Economics. It's a guide to pivoting through disruption. This is a must-read if you're working in music, media, or entertainment. He is also a Visiting Fellow at the London School of Economics. He is the former Chie
56 min