The Real Story BBC World Service

At the end of a friendly meeting in Moscow, President Xi of China told President Putin of Russia that they are driving changes in the world the likes of which have not been seen for a century.

Meanwhile this week President Biden kicked off a Summit for Democracy with $690m funding pledge to democracies all over the world and the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, called on Europe to reassess its diplomatic and economic relations with China before a visit to Beijing next week.

So what changes are President Xi talking about? Who will be running the world in 20 years time? Is conflict between rival powers inevitable? And is the model of western liberal democracy in decline?

Owen Bennett-Jones is joined by:

Evelyn Farkas - an American national security advisor, author, and foreign policy analyst. She is the current Executive Director of the McCain Institute, a nonprofit organisation focused on democracy, human rights, and leadership. Evelyn served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia under President Obama

Martin Wolf - chief economics commentator at the Financial Times and author of The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism

Professor Steve Tsang - political scientist and historian and Director of the China Institute at the SOAS University of London

Also featuring:

Henry Wang - founder and director of the Centre for China and Globalisation, a think tank with links to the Chinese Communist Party

Nathalie Tocci - director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali and an honorary professor at the University of Tübingen

Photo: Russia's Putin holds talks with China's Xi in the Kremlin in Moscow on March 21, 2023 / Credit: Reuters

Produced by Rumella Dasgupta and Pandita Lorenz

Clashes this week between police and supporters of former cricketer-turned-Prime Minister, Imran Khan, show once again the deep divisions within Pakistani politics.

Mr Khan was ousted as prime minister last April in a no-confidence vote but has kept up pressure on his successor, Mr Sharif, with demonstrations calling for early elections and blaming him for an assassination attempt - an accusation the government denies. Mr Khan faces multiple court cases, including terrorism charges, but has cited a variety of reasons for not showing up to hearings.

Meanwhile Pakistan is in the middle of one of the worst economic crises ever seen. The country is awaiting a much-needed bailout package of $1.1 billion from the International Monetary Fund - a loan that has been delayed over issues related to fiscal policy. The security situation is also deteriorating with a spate of deadly attacks on police, linked to the Pakistan Taliban.

So what, if anything, might resolve the political stand-off? What impact does ongoing instability have on Pakistan’s economic situation and could this all play into the hands of Pakistan’s Taliban? How much support does Imran Khan really have from the military - or could the army’s longstanding hold on Pakistan finally be challenged?

Owen Bennett-Jones is joined by:

General Muhammad Haroon Aslam, a retired army general. He was a Corps Commander in the Pakistani army and served in the military for 40 years

Hammad Azhar, a former finance minister for Imran Khan's party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf

Atika Rehman, London correspondent for Dawn newspaper

Also featuring:

Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, senator for the The Pakistan Muslim League, part of the ruling coalition, and a former prime minister
Shuja Nawaz, Distinguished Fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington
Khurram Husain, business and economy journalist based in Karachi
Ahmed Rashid, journalist and author of Descent into Chaos and Pakistan on the Brink

(Photo: Former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan speaks with Reuters during an interview in Lahore, Pakistan 17 March, 2023. Credit: Akhtar Soomro/Reuters)

Millions of people around the world are on the move today in search of a safe and better life. It’s estimated over 100 million people were displaced last year. Over 30 million are refugees and 5 million are asylum seekers. The UN body for refugees says 72% of the refugees originate from just five countries: Syria, Venezuela, Ukraine, Afghanistan and South Sudan. These refugees are often fleeing persecution, conflict, violence, natural disasters and human rights violations. They make the dangerous journey across land and sea to seek asylum in other countries. Over the years, thousands have died or gone missing in the the Mediterranean trying to reach Europe. While, with help from the UNHCR and host countries, many get legal status and are settled, thousands are held in processing centres and camps, often for years. We discuss problems with the current international asylum system and ask what would a fair global asylum system could look like?

Owen Bennett Jones is joined by:

Gerald Knaus - the founding chairman of German think tank The European Stability Initiative.

Jeff Crisp - former head of policy development and evaluation at the UNHCR.

Dr Ashwini Vasanthakumar - author of The Ethics of Exile: A Political Theory of Diaspora. She writes on the ethics and politics of migration.

Also featuring:

Ahmed - a migrant, an asylum seeker and a refugee, who fled Syria in 2015 and is now settled in the UK>

Alexander Downer - Australia's former foreign minister.

Ylenja Lucaselli - A member of the Italian Parliament for Fratelli d'Italia.

(Photo: The number of people crossing the English Channel has risen in recent years. Credit: PA)

Producer: Rozita Riazati and Rumella Dasgupta.

A new Brexit deal for Northern Ireland has been announced. The Windsor Framework replaces the Northern Ireland Protocol - that was deemed unworkable, but does this new deal solve Northern Ireland's trading arrangements?

In his speech in Windsor, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said his new framework agreement had "removed any sense of a border in the Irish Sea". It is true that Northern Ireland consumers should certainly have no sense of a border when it comes to buying food, plants and medicines or taking their dog on the ferry to Scotland. But it will still be a trade border of sorts. Moving goods from Great Britain to Northern Ireland remains conditional: it will require signing up to trusted trader schemes, providing information on what goods are moving and having the correct labelling.

But given the constraints the UK set itself back in 2017 - a hard Brexit with no land border on the island of Ireland - that may be as good as it gets.

Rishi Sunak and EU chief, Ursula von der Leyen, seemed comfortable together in Windsor but it’s still unclear whether the Democratic Unionist Party in Northern Ireland will back the agreement and bring back the power-sharing government. So, is the Windsor Framework a feasible solution? How did Mr Sunak make such progress where his predecessors failed to? If the DUP do reject it, does this mean Brexit can never truly be ‘done’? And what would be the implications for Northern Ireland, Great Britain and the EU if the wrangling over the border continues indefinitely?

Chris Morris is joined by:

Raoul Ruparel, special advisor on Europe to former UK Prime Minister Theresa May from 2018-19.

Tony Connolly, Europe Editor for Ireland's national broadcaster RTE. He is the author of Brexit & Ireland: The Dangers, the Opportunities, and the Inside Story of the Irish Response.

Professor Danuta Hübner, a Polish MEP and a member of the European Parliament’s UK Contact Group .

Also featuring:

Sammy Wilson, Democratic Unionist Party MP for East Antrim and DUP chief whip

Image: Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen during a press conference at the Guildhall in Windsor, Berkshire, following the announcement that they have struck a deal over the Northern Ireland Protocol. Credit: PA

Producers: Imogen Wallace and Pandita Lorenz

Last year China's population fell for the first time in 60 years with the national birth rate hitting a record low.

China's birth rate has in fact been declining for years but an older population will pose a real challenge for China economically, politically and strategically. So, what will the consequences be for China and the rest of the world if this vast economy - the second largest in the world – of a waning workforce and an ageing population?

The ruling Communist Party is introducing a range of policies to try to encourage couples to have more babies. But it was only seven years ago that the Chinese government scrapped the controversial one-child policy, replacing it with the two-child policy in 2016 and the three-child policy in 2021. The government is also offering tax breaks and better maternal healthcare, among other incentives, in an effort to reverse, or at least slow, the falling birth rate.

Nothing so far has worked.

So how concerning is population decline for China and the rest of the world? How much of an issue is gender inequality and the cost of raising a child? What will an older, frailer population do to the Chinese economy? And, as climate change intensifies, is population decline really a problem?

Chris Morris is joined by:

Yun Zhou - a social demographer, family sociologist and an assistant professor at the University of Michigan.

Isabel Hilton – a journalist and founder of the bilingual website China Dialogue - an organisation dedicated to promoting a common understanding of China’s environmental challenges.

Yasheng Huang - professor of global economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and author of the forthcoming book on China, The Rise and the Fall of the EAST.

Also featuring:

Victor Gao - Vice President of the Beijing-based Centre for China and Globalisation, a think tank with links to the Chinese Communist Party.

Producer: Pandita Lorenz and Ellen Otzen

(Photo: China's Sichuan province shifts birth control policies, Shanghai, 31 Jan 2023. Credit: Alex Plavevski/EPA-EFE/Rex/Shutterstock)

The earthquakes that struck south-eastern Turkey and northern Syria on 6 February were deadly and devastating. Tens of thousands have died - many more are unaccounted for.

It's not the first time that Turkey has been blindsided by a major earthquake. In 1999 the Turkish government was caught off-guard by an earthquake that killed more than 17,000 people. It sparked major public outcry that helped bring Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP) into power for the first time in 2003. Back then Erdoğan blamed poor governance and corruption for the huge number of casualties.

But now he is the one in power - and this earthquake is even deadlier still. There has been criticism of the speed and effectiveness of the Turkish government's response to the earthquake and anger at periodic building amnesties that legalised poorly built homes - despite Turkey’s history of earthquakes.

So could Turkey’s response to the earthquake have been better and what were the limiting factors? With elections on the horizon and an economy in trouble, will the shock of this earthquake loosen President Erdoğan's grip on power? President Erdoğan has cast himself as a key player on the international stage so what might all of this mean for the wider region?

Ritula Shah is joined by:

Sinan Ülgen, a former Turkish diplomat and director of the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, an independent think tank based in Istanbul.

Tarık Oğuzlu, a Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Istanbul Aydin University.

Ayla Jean Yackley, a freelance journalist who has been covering the earthquake for the Financial Times.

Also featuring:

Ilnur Cevik, special advisor to President Erdoğan

Ilan Kelman, Professor of Disasters and Health and University College London

Photo: Turkish President Erdogan visits Hatay province in the aftermath of a deadly earthquake / Credit: Murat Cetinmuhurdar/Presidential Press Office/Handout via REUTERS

Producers: Imogen Wallace and Pandita Lorenz