https://youtube.com/shorts/lFtOziQXPNM?feature=share Finally, does Trump have a plan? Yes. Can it deliver the results America needs? Reply hazy, try again. I lay out the plan and my issues with it here. Then, finish this series with a BANG over the next three killer episodes. All the charts and thoughts that couldn't make it into the video, below. First, NOBODY gets manufacturing back by changing one incentive. Some of Trump's tariff edicts barely last one week. Meanwhile, supply chains are long, complex, expensive investment decisions that require certainty and stability — contracts, legislation, ecosystems (universities, job training, infrastructure, housing), and tax abatements...or as my transcription software called it, "Jason Batemans". On Trump’s terms, this is like building your dream home on a raft. Or, in the Palisades. These moves are not designed for long-term investment decisions, but invitations to negotiate. Not great invitations. Like 4th of July at Ted Kaczynski's . This is a chaotic turducken of high stakes bets, built on the idea that America can force other countries to capitulate. Everything has to go right. Even then, we will have alienated our allies and damaged trust in the US and the dollar. This video is a more coherent breakdown of Trump’s plan than anyone, including him, has ever articulated. The steps make sense, on the surface. I’ll break down how they fall apart, in practice. https://twitter.com/shellenberger/status/1910027744496550207 1. chaos as leverage Using chaos to stimulate manufacturing is like yelling at a fat friend to run faster. Maybe they can, or maybe they'll die. Trump’s first move is meant to destabilize opponents by expanding the Overton Window. That makes previously unthinkable positions look like rational compromises. A 10% global tariff may have been unthinkable, until a 110% tariff was a reality. It’s all part of a pattern. Sign up to Unlock You'll get a link to unlock this free post. Plus, all charts, links & preview of future episodes. your email address (you can unsubscribe anytime, no hassles) Loading... Remember when he announced we're taking over Gaza? Suddenly every Arab nation that was sitting out this latest war, woke up. ‘Oh my God, we don't want the US in our backyard!’ Now, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are all trying to figure things out on their own. Or when Trump threatened to drone bomb Mexican Cartels? The goal was to push Mexico to handle the problem so we didn’t have to. Same thing with leaking plans to bomb Iran. Same with threatening to annex Greenland, Canada, Panama Canal, and Ukrainian minerals. Now, Canada dumped Trudeau and Arab states are working on their own solution for Palestine. In a trade war, our panic is the point. It’s what convinces adversaries that this is real, that we're ready to gut this out. Except… If you pull the trigger, you can’t blink. Trump’s been blinking like a Bedouin in a sandstorm, with one backtrack after another. Blinking invalidates not only the tariff threat, but every other use of this tactic. Now the only way to regain credibility is to bomb Cleveland. OK, Iran will do. Even Trump's 'blinks' are incoherent. Giving Apple and Nvidia tariff exemptions on iPhones and other finished goods, while hiking it for steel, is the exact opposite of bringing manufacturing back. It raises costs on inputs, lowers them on outputs. According to Goldman-Sachs, US input tariffs could raise US manufacturers' production costs by 5-15%, making them less competitive vs foreign producers, especially overseas.
