42 episodes

Every week, we discuss topical economic themes from a European perspective and provide perspective on key macro data news.

The Week That Was in Europe Klaus Adam & Dirk Schumacher

    • News

Every week, we discuss topical economic themes from a European perspective and provide perspective on key macro data news.

    What Are the Costs of Permanently High Inflation?

    What Are the Costs of Permanently High Inflation?

    We discuss the economic costs of a permanently high inflation rate. Economic theory suggests that inflation affects economic outcomes along a number of channels. We evaluate the quantitatitve importance of these channels and the empirical evidence that exists in their support.

    Papers mentioned in the podcast:

    Nakamura & Steinsson (Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2018), The Elusive Costs of Inflation: Price Dispersion During the Great U.S. Inflation, https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjy017

    Adam et al. (Journal of Monetary Economics, forthcoming), The case for a positive Euro Area inflation rate: evidence from France, Germany and Italy, https://jimdo-storage.global.ssl.fastly.net/file/3eb2213a-50d0-47b7-88be-93858a266cb9/AdamGautierSantoroWeber_JME.pdf

    Guido Ascari (2022, unpublished), The Long-Run Phillips Curve Is ...a Curve,

    https://sites.google.com/site/guidoascari/working-papers?authuser=0

    • 18 min
    The Painful Adjustment of the German Economy

    The Painful Adjustment of the German Economy

    We discuss how a large manufacturing share and large trade exposure affect Germany in times of high energy prices & deglobalization risk.

    • 23 min
    Review of This Week's ECB Meeting (Sept 2022)

    Review of This Week's ECB Meeting (Sept 2022)

    We discuss the main aspects around the European Central Bank's decision from September 8 2022, and the outlook for policy rates going forward.

    • 15 min
    The ECB's July Meeting: An Attempt To Square the Circle?

    The ECB's July Meeting: An Attempt To Square the Circle?

    We critically review and discuss the major decisions elements of the important July 2022 ECB Governing Council meeting.

    • 20 min
    How much ECB hiking is needed to get inflation under control?

    How much ECB hiking is needed to get inflation under control?

    We discuss whether the ECB tightening path implied by current market prices is sufficient for getting inflation under control in the Euro Area. We highlight the role played by the neutral real rate, the slope of the Phillips curve and inflation expectations for inflation dynamics going forward.

    The ECB working paper by Marta Banbura und Elena Bobeica that we mention in the podcast is available here:

    https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2471~fc87caada8.en.pdf?9306b59fe8f49ee4e6e926121283ac85

    • 24 min
    Will Higher Interest Rates Lead to Higher Capital Productivity?

    Will Higher Interest Rates Lead to Higher Capital Productivity?

    Periods of high real interest rates are historically associated with high productivity growth and a high marginal product of capital. We discuss to what extent this implies that the expected increase in real interest rates due to ECB tightening measures will increase the marginal product of capital and productivity growth.

    • 20 min

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