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A strange mix this week as Sean and I discuss the Grand National and, whether it is now just another long distance steeplechase handicap. We natter about affordability checks and open banking, we give some grief to racing starting at 10-00am, and ask what can be done about the Jockey Club reducing financial input by £1.5m



If you listen via Apple iTunes you can now read a full transcript of the entire Podcast so our hard of hearing members miss nothing.



Below is my side of the racing chatter....best of luck tomorrow!



Saturday Racing



Newbury 1.30pm



I’m enjoying my racing this month, Aintree was excellent, and watching the flat season finally springing into life this week has been brilliant. It does help that we’ve been betting on winners though and hopefully we can get rocking and rolling in the Podcasts now, too. Not sure we’ll beat or even equal last season’s 100+ points profit from 13 Podcasts, but we’ll give it a shot.



A nice 10 runners Group race to start with and I’ve already decided we can only work with four and five year olds as they’ve taken nine of the last 10 John Porters so, my first shortlist contains:




AL QAREEM



ALSAKIB



ARREST



CHESSPIECE



PEKING OPERA



SALT BAY




The weight ranges don’t offer much help, as tends to be the case with Group races so I’m looking now at what the markets said about the last 10 winners.



Seven of the last eight winners were in the front three on the tissue and of the six in that first list I’m happy to go forward with:




ARREST



AL QAREEM




Splitting them must simply be a case of applying official Ratings, and weight carried here. ARREST is officially 2lb superior to AL QAREEM but AL QAREEM has to give 3lb to ARREST and it’s now down to which arrives fitter for seasonal debut.



RON – ARREST



SEAN - ARREST



Newbury 2.05pm



Another Group race but just six going to post and all three year olds making seasonal debut. Which have trained on? Your guess is as good as mine. This is why I use April for “Sighters” only.



We also have a horse in here that arrives unbeaten in five, FOLGARIA, but how will the Italian form transfer to Newbury? Four wins at San Siro? I don’t know much about that place other than it’s right handed with a four furlong straight.



I can tell you with absolute certainty that a 3-y-o carrying 9st 2lb wins it and with the markets the only viable guide open to me I’m going to suggest the winner is front two on the tissue because seven of the last 10 winners were so:




RELIEF RALLY



REGAL JUBILEE




Once again splitting them comes down to official ratings and the weight they carry tomorrow. They race of level weights but RELIEF RALLY is officially more than half a stone the better horse so, taking on trust both have trained on, are ready to go, only RELIEF RALLY can win this.



FOLGARIA is rated just 2lb behind RELIEF RALLY and 6lb better than REGAL JUBILEE but we tend to do this in this country….we let foreign form fly under the radar so she might well be the one for the forecast….or would be in the middle of June, when we know everyone is fit and flying.



RON – RELIEF RALLY



SEAN - ELMALKA



Ayr 2.25pm



A Champion Hurdle, that’s also a Handicap….it’ll be more competitive than the one at Cheltenham but also a tad more difficult to work out, too.



The most dominant age grouping would be 5, 6, and 7….nine of the last 10 winner’s they’d have found you.



That only rules out three of the 15 runners so I’ll not bore you with a 12 runner “shortlist” and I’ll look at how the weights have worked, marry them up to the 12 left and see what we have then.



To be honest, they are all over the shop. We have seen winners in the last nine years carrying 9st 11lb, and everything in between 10st 4lb – 11st 6lb popping up.



So I’m going to suggest we apply the market SP banding here and with eight of the last 10 winners sitting front five on the tissue I

Sean Trivass and I have been chewing the fat over several topics this week, including, are we watching the death throes of NH racing in Britain, have we seen the last of Constitution Hill? If the financial checks being imposed on punters that bet online only, and punters can bet in betting shops, or on course, without financial checks, what is the point?



The main topic though is, why start the flat season....then stop it again? Virtually no flat racing since the Doncaster Lincoln meeting and three all weather cards per day?



TOPICS OF CONVERSATION




Are we witnessing the end of NH racing in Britain?




I had a look at the BHA Industry stats before we went live and found that between 2018 and 2022 jumps field sizes shrunk year on year, from 8.48 runners per race in 2018, to 7.73 per race in 2022 and, without a shadow of a doubt, that decline has continued.



In 2018 19.5% of all jumps races had fewer than six runners, in 2022 that had risen to 28%....I’d say it’s pushing 50% now, especially midweek.



In 2018 they had 55.5% of all NH races having eight or more runners….in 2022 it was down to 46.5% a near 10% drop/decline, call it what you like....these figures are BHA figures, so why has nobody taken any action?



I cannot think of a single positive innovation coming from BHA Headquarters. Everything has been tinkering around the edges, robbing Peter to pay Paul,



Four and five runner races have been the norm recently, we’ve seen meetings held with fewer than 20 horses at a meeting, one card opening with a walkover.




Should the flat season start later, with the Lincoln taking place the week after the Grand National?



If punters will be able to bet in betting shops and on racecourses, without the checks being imposed on online punters, what is the point?



Do you think we'll ever see Constitution Hill again?




KEMPTON 2-05



Nice to see a double figure field for a good race!



Nine of the last 10 running’s of this race have gone to 4-y-o’s and eight of the last 10 winners were also trading front two on the tissue so, it has to be one of:




MANY TEARS



CHOISYA




I’m looking now at the record of seasonal debutantes and both fit perfectly as four of the last five winners were but two things point me in the direction of MANY TEARS.



First, she’s trading favourite and five of the last 10 winners also went off the jolly.



Secondly, draw….MANY TEARS has five to break from, CHOISYA comes out of seven….and six of the last 10 winners were drawn five or lower….and three have actually won from stall five in three of the last eight years.



Not a lot to work with but everything I see points to MANY TEARS



RON – MANY TEARS



SEAN – MYSTIC PEARL – E.W.



CURRAGH 2-55



Given the current weather situation I felt we had to pad this out with a race at The Curragh, which will also be run on very heavy ground.



Plenty of back history to the race and as you might expect, it has been dominated in recent years by Aiden O’Brien, who has saddled four of the last six winners.



Since 2016 this has been won by five 4-y-o’s and two 5-y-o’s so they are my go to age groups.



Horses carrying 9st 5lb have won the last three renewals, and four of the last five so I’m looking for a four or five year old, carrying 9st 5lb




WHITE BIRCH



MAXUX



VILLAGE VOICE



CRYPTO FORCE



THE SHADOW LINGERS




I’m now looking at whether or not the market found these winners and with nothing bigger than 6/1 winning in the last nine years I’d suggest it did. I’ll take the following forward from here:




WHITE BIRCH



MAXUX




The only trainer to land this with the favourite in the last 10 years has been Aiden O’Brien, all four of his winners returned favourite but tomorrow he saddles GREENLAND, currently 6/1, having opened up 5/1 so, drifting.



MAXUX is trained by Joseph O’Brien and he won this with BUCKHURST back in 2020. I’ve seen this horse attracting support – 11/2 >

Sean and I spend the best part of an hour discussing Cheltenham issues, and then looking for a Lucky 15, one selection per day, to have some fun with.



Sean has produced a life-changer....a whopping great 417,689/1 accumulator, whilst my own is a little more conservative.



SEAN




TUESDAY - TELLHERTHENAME (Supreme Novices Hurdle 25/1)



WEDNESDAY - QUEBECOIS (Bumper 20/1)



THURSDAY - MONKFISH (Stayers Hurdle 14/1)



FRIDAY - NASSALAM (Gold Cup 50/1)




RON




TUESDAY - THE GOFFER (Ultima 6/1)



WEDNESDAY - BRAZIL (Coral Cup 16/1)



THURSDAY - THEATRE MAN (Trustatrader Plate 5/1)



FRIDAY - QUAI DE BOURBON (Martin Pipe Conditional 4/1)

Edwardstone is back – but can he spring an upset in the Champion Chase? 




Not a snowball in hells chance. Connections know his number is up as far as Championship races are concerned, which was why they tried him over further at Kempton in January. 



He won a four runner race in which two failed to finish, and he beat a 144 rated handicapper as easily as he should have done. 



He’s officially rated 9lb lower than EL FABIOLO, an unbeaten 7-y-o who is still improving.  



Third place money is anyone's come March but if the front two on the tissue stand up, that’s all he’s playing for. 




Irish eyes are smiling – but are they really as all conquering over here as it sometimes seems (and we aren’t just talking Cheltenham)? 




Very much depends on the grade of racing. Midweek they are having to send ordinary horses here because they cannot get a run over there.  



But look at the quality meetings, starting with Cheltenham in November. There they won the Amateur jockeys Chase, the Paddy Power Handicap Hurdle, and the Bumper. 



New Years Day at Cheltenham....STUMPTOWN wins the Paddy Power Handicap, and BOB OLINGER took the Relkeel pulling a cart. 



Festival Trials Day....CAPODANNO, LOSSIEMOUTH and NOBLE YEATS won the three biggest prizes on the day.  




Low Sun – is three out of nine hurdles something punters should just accept or are there realistic alternatives?  




That was obscene. You and I have been batting this one backwards and forwards every day this week....I’ve probably done your head in....but this simply cannot be right.  



I pointed out to you how vital jumping is, in determining the result of a race. We had one run in Ireland this week and the winner won by just under four lengths.  



RacingTV now has a system in place that tells them immediately how much jumping impacted on a result, and that Irish winner gained so much over the rest of the field at each hurdle...a total of 18 lengths that winner achieved during the entire race. So, if you take away his advantage....that being his ability to jump....you obtain a false result. 



This race at Plumpton, that saw six hurdles removed, was won by a horse that had raced once and unseated his jockey. As a punter, I’ve looked at that race and seen hurdles as a potential negative in his case. 



Put simply, there is enough that can go wrong during a race to give punters enough to worry about, than for them to then have 2/3rds of the obstacles removed rendering the race a total farce. 



What do you then do with the form of that race? It’s worthless. 



I’ve said before, it would take an IT expert 15 minutes to introduce a checkbox system onto an online betting slip, to offer a punter the option to void their bet in the event this kind of thing happens. I would check that box every single time because I work out how a race will be run, which horses can jump, which are iffy and will lose lengths during a race, and I’ve placed my bet long before the sun becomes an issue. 



If I know I’ve backed a plodder, that jumps like a buck and makes three or four lengths on others in the race, at each fence, would I bet it to win a Bumper? That’s a rhetorical question....no answer required! 



You received a communication, which we cannot discuss just yet, that raised more questions than it answered. But that is just typical of where we are right now.  



By all means run the race if connections are happy for it to go ahead....they’ve paid money to enter, the owner has funded his trainer and staff getting there, so they might as well have a shot....but give punters the option not to let their bets ride, if that is what they choose to do. 



What would they do with the Gold Cup if six or more fences had to come out because of low sun, and another two or three because of false ground on the take off or landing side?  



Racecourses know the potential for

Racing is decimated this weekend so we've just had a racing chat, trying to put the world to rights and having a laugh.



Topics include the domination of Willie Mullins in Ireland. Is it strangling the game as suggested by a small breeder over there in today's Racing Post?



How tough was Hardy Eustace, a Champion when we had double figure fields in the Champion Hurdle and why do you think they paid that ridiculous sum of money for a hurdler, that has no value at stud once he finished racing? More money than sense?



No selections this weekend because two meeting have been abandoned and heavy....very heavy....ground at Newbury already has non-runners flying in!




Willie Mullins - is he REALLY the punters friend?




I doubt he actually sets out to be. You worked out the other day how much profit you would have got backing all of his last weekend.



I imagine that figure would apply to every year the DRF has been run….since 2018….and he has won 47 of the 105 races in those intervening years.



To my mind, the situation is farcical and as much as we moan and groan about racing here, at least it’s a bit more competitive than over there!



I mentioned to you this morning about the letter a small breeder had written to the Racing Post, and his concerns for people like himself, the smaller trainers, and those jockeys that never get on anything remotely decent.




 Farewell to Hardy Eustace – a horse from the days when the Champion Hurdle was competitive




Couldn’t have put it better myself! A proper Cheltenham horse, too. Won what I think would be the Ballymore in 2003, went back there in 2004 and beat old ROOSTER BOOSTER in a photo finish, and I’d put him up on a racing chat room back then @ 33/1….and then returned in 2005 to beat that rogue HARCHIBALD, again in a photo finish, then rocked up 12 months later to finish third to BRAVE INCA, when 18 went to post.



Be lucky if we see five lining up this year.




3)    Caldwell Potter for 740,000 Euros – is it any wonder the cries of “not enough prize money” fall on deaf ears?




At least we learned the Irish players ceiling! I believe Gordon Elliott was gutted to lose this one.



I think I saw a league table last week that said this horse is the highest rated novice either side of the Irish Sea and a syndicate of millionaires has decide to go for it.



As we know, money is no guarantee of success. I’ve seen a million pigeon catchers on the gallops flop on the track.



I remember JP buying GARDE CHAMPETRE for 530,000gns back in 2004. He was sent to Jonjo and after his first piece of work at Jonjo O’Neills, after Nicholls got shut, the work rider got off and said, “he paid how much for this thing? He’s useless!”….Jonjo said that whatever he did, he didn’t say that in front of JP.



Jonjo never got a win out of him, he was sent to Enda Bolger who sent him straight over a cheese wedge!




4)    “On the whole, racing has always done better under a Labour government” - James Bethell this week – but is there any evidence to back up that assumption, or is the very thought a road to racing’s ruin?




I don’t know what he is basing that comment on….might be worth an ask and if he has facts and figures to back it up, great.



Thing is, we’ve had about 70 years of Conservative government in the last 100 years and look at the state of racing today. We’ve seen the greatest decline in British racing in the last 20+ years, and who has been in Government for the last 14 of those? Labour couldn’t do much worse and the plain fact is, racing is not a concern to any of the major parties, in my humble opinion.



Racing must look to itself for solutions….and everyone knows the root cause, and how to fix it. Whilst there is no will to do it, we’ll just keep on moaning every week in a Podcast

Today we try to put the racing world to rights and discuss the Irish domination, why Premierisation is doomed to fail....or is it?....and we discuss six races for tomorrow, including a 24 runner Irish Handicap....we must be mad!



Below you have my side of the conversation with Sean's selections for each race and our SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND



1.32pm Wetherby



No previous running’s of this race so Profiling is null and void.



I will produce Ratings for it tomorrow but for Podcast purposes only, I’ll tell you now that two trainers that had entries and a huge level stake profit in such races being run here are Olly Murphy, five winners from 18 runners in such races as this, a lovely +29 pts profit, and Micky Hammond, nine winners from 68 runners, a profit of +65.8pts....Murphy had GARDNER entered but has not declared.



Hammond has NOT WHAT IT SEEMS who is currently something like 8/1 and I will say let’s go 20/80 at those odds.



RON – NOT WHAT IT SEEMS – 20/80



SEAN – CEPAGE – E.W.



2.50pm Musselburgh



You have spoiled me with the race selections this week and here we have a 13 runner handicap at my second favourite track in the country.



Nine previous running’s, one shy of my need when it comes to Profiling but let’s see what happens.



Horses aged five and six are the “go to” age groups, as they have won eight of those nine running’s, and the last seven.




YOUR HONOR



AFADIL



COLLINGHAM



PARK ANNONCIADE



ZANNABAD



CUBAN CIGAR




I’m getting nothing from weight ranges just yet but market position is screaming off the page!



No winning favourites yet, but seven of the nine winners have sat second of third favourite, the two odd ones out sat fourth on the tissue.




YOUR HONOR



AFADIL




If Profiling works on this limited data, one of that pair visits the winner's enclosure so a dutch....but for the Podcast selection I’ll plump for the Pirate coming over from Ireland, YOUR HONOR.



Second favourites have won five of the nine previous renewals and he’s sitting in that spot at 5/1....20/80.



RON – YOUR HONOR – 20/80



SEAN – SEXTANT – E.W.



3.00pm Leopardstown



I said earlier that you’d spoiled me with your race selections this week but now I have a 24 runner Irish Handicap to work with, and a dumb look on my face.



Might as well be a Rubik’s Cube I’m looking at because trying to solve an Irish Handicap requires the luck of Beelzebub, inside information, and knowledge I do not have of track etc....sure, I watch these races but then I get back to my bread and butter.



Ok....I’ve nine previous running’s in front of me....eight have been won by horses trading a single figure price, which surprised me....but Willie Mullins won it three years ago with a 40/1 shot.



Eight of the nine winners carried less than 11st but when it comes to age groups...6, 7, 8....so let’s see if a rabbit pops it’s head out of this hat



Age groups:



I’m not about to bang a shortlist of 20 horses in here, because that’s how many qualify....so how many carry less than 11st?




MUSIC OF TARA



BLACK BAMBOO



STARZOV



PARK OF KINGS



ISHAN




MARKET POSITION



Any trading a single figure price?



Before I go there, JP has one sitting second favourite, who failed by 1lb to make the weights cut....CANAL END....and trading 5/1.....a beaten favourite last time out you have to consider it.



The shortest priced runner in that five above is MUSIC OF TARA....De Bromhead/Blackmore....12/1....and for Podcast purposes only, a shilling e.w.



RON – MUSIC OF TARA – 20/80



SEAN – MUSIC OF TARA – E.W



3.10pm Sandown



Stunning race....saw this and was rubbing my hands because we’ve been dealing with nonsense all week, most of which shouldn’t have been taking place.



The unfortunate thing is, I only have eight previous running’s of this race to try and cobble some stats together from.



Age groupings....no use at all....the eight pr