30 episodes

Daniels Trading futures brokers discuss the commodity markets from a fundamental, technical, and seasonal perspective. Turner's Take podcast is hosted by Craig Turner, commodity broker with Daniels Trading and author of Turner’s Take newsletter.

Turner's Take Craig Turner and Daniels Trading

    • Business
    • 4.9 • 28 Ratings

Daniels Trading futures brokers discuss the commodity markets from a fundamental, technical, and seasonal perspective. Turner's Take podcast is hosted by Craig Turner, commodity broker with Daniels Trading and author of Turner’s Take newsletter.

    Turner’s Take Podcast | Range Bound Trading Ahead

    Turner’s Take Podcast | Range Bound Trading Ahead

    Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 274

    If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!







    New Podcast

    Earlier this week we sent out an email to take profits on old crop grain and oilseed positions.  US farmers will most likely plant a majority of their corn and soybeans over the next three weeks.  The May 12th WASDE will report new crop supply and demand numbers for the first time this year.  Domestic old crop stocks are tight but the US is overpriced on the global export market. This all points to a big choppy trading range for the next few weeks and we have some idea on how to trade it. We also need to get serious about new crop sales and 2022 hedges. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!

    If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free!  You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.

    Corn

    Dec 2021 corn reversed on Tuesday and we expect a choppy market for the next few weeks.  New crop corn should have a lot of resistance at $5.70 and strong support around $5.20.  Aggressive traders can buy support levels and sell resistance levels. I like selling put spreads if we get to $5.20 and selling call spreads if we get to $5.70.

    On the chart below I have a couple of highlighted sections on the chart.  If we dip into the lower yellow area then corn is too cheap based on current ending stock projections. If corn gets to the upper yellow area I think corn is expensive (given there are no big weather threats yet).

    This is my expected trading range for the next few weeks.  A weather market can develop in late May and June but the story of the next couple of weeks will most likely be the accelerating pace of corn and soybean planting.

    Interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing?  If so then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here.



    Soybeans 

    I have the same ideas for soybeans as I do for corn (see the corn section above).  Below $13.00 new crop soybeans get too cheap based on current ending stock projections.  Breaking out over $14 is too expensive without a serious weather threat.  I like selling put spreads on a decline to $13. We’ll look to make cash sale recommendations if new crop rallies past $14.  Nov 2022 soybeans are $12 and considering how ...

    • 18 min
    Turner’s Take Podcast | CBOT Rips Higher

    Turner’s Take Podcast | CBOT Rips Higher

    Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 273

    If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!







    New Podcast

    The grain markets are on fire. Corn and soybean oil closed limit up today (4/22) and wheat was limit up mid session but couldn’t quite stay at those levels by the close.  We go over why the CBOT is trading this way, what to look for, and how to trade it this spring and summer. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!

    If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free!  You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.

    Limit Up – Corn

    Corn was limit up today lead by a very strong cash market.  End users need coverage between now and harvest and the grain is just not readily available. They have to bid up prices to get the last remaining bushels out of farmer storage.

    There is concern about production declines in Brazil (2nd crop corn).  Any exports that Brazil can not fill usually comes back the US.  That could be 5mm mt of corn or 200mm bushels the US might not have to export. We also heard rumors of China looking to buy US corn but we could not verify that today.

    Planting is not off to a good start and based on the long term weather reports this spring/summer could be warmer and drier than normal. We have tight old crop stocks, not enough US acres, and if need a record yield just to have adequate stocks next year!!!

    No one wants to get short, even farmers who eventually have to sell their grain.  Inflation trade and money moving into the Ag space is a reality.  Seasonally this is a time of year to be long grain (especially when stocks are tight)

    Add in all of that and we get a big rally.  Keep in mind May FND is a week away and if the supply is not out there then commercial end users will be buying for delivery. I’m sure there are margin calls and forced liquidation too. Moral of the story is we are in for a wild spring and summer.  Big breaks, big rallies, no place for the faint of heart.

    Interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing?  If so then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here.

    Trade Ideas – FILLED

    FILLED  – OLD CROP – Bought the July Corn $6.50 calls for 14 cents on 4/20 and sold the $7.

    • 21 min
    Turner’s Take Podcast | Futures, Options, OTC, and Structured Products

    Turner’s Take Podcast | Futures, Options, OTC, and Structured Products

    Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 272

    If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!







    New Podcast

    Today we take a look at the macro market, the potential for a big summer rally in the grain markets, and why farmers should look to the OTC markets with myself and StoneX for hedging 2022 crop this summer.  Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!

    If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free!  You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.

    Corn and Soybean Oil Lead CBOT Higher

    Corn has been the upside leader lately and that should continue to be the case during a summer weather rally.  Cash corn prices are bullish in the US, setting records in Brazil, near historic highs in China, and the market thinks the USDA needs increase exports and lower ending stocks on the balance sheet.

    Soybean oil is getting a boost due to strong demand, tight stocks, and a lower crush is limiting much needed vegetable oil on the domestic and global market.

    These markets will be volatile. I still like buying buy call spreads and financing them with short put spreads.  These markets could get wild this spring and summer so it is important to find positions that you can hold onto during extreme moves.

    Interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing?  If so then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here.

    Dec 2022 Corn 

    I had a few farmers ask me about pricing for Dec 2022 corn.  For farmers who qualify for an OTC account I really like the structured products StoneX has available.  This summer we could see Dec 2022 corn get to $4.80 or higher. Some of the accumulators could price Dec 2022 corn at $5.00 or higher with no knockout.  There are some very interesting ways to hedge 5% tp 10% of 2022 crop in the OTC market with myself and StoneX

    Why do I like pricing some Dec 2022 corn this summer?  I think we are going to see a massive expansion in acres next year in the US and around the world. We saw it after 2012/2013 and at these prices I think we see it again next year and into 2023.  Old crop and new crop are bullish and will most likely remain bullish until this year’s crop is made.  There is a possibility the best prices for Dec 2022 happen this summer.

    • 20 min
    Turner’s Take Podcast | Summer Ideas for Corn and Soybeans

    Turner’s Take Podcast | Summer Ideas for Corn and Soybeans

    Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 271

    If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!







    New Podcast

    Today we look at what the Planting Intentions report means for potential price moves this summer.  Corn and soybean acres were lower than expected last week.  We think acres will come up but not enough to prevent tight new crop ending stocks.  Weather rallies this spring and summer could be the biggest we’ve seen in years if conditions are hot and dry.  Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcats!

    If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free!  You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.

    Spring & Summer Weather Rally Potential

    The Planting Intentions report sets up the possibility of big weather rallies this spring and summer. If conditions are hot and dry the US planting and growing season will be challenging.  Below are two supply and demand scenarios for corn and soybeans.  Any loss in yield could send prices higher and the market will be volatile with each change in the weather forecast this season.

    I like using options for weather markets this spring and summer.  Futures will be hard to hold onto during the volatility.  Here are some ideas for both old crop and new crop.  Please call me at 312-706-7610 or email craig.turner@stonex.com with questions.  We can always adjust these ideas based on your account, strategies, and risk/reward preferences.

    Old Crop Soybean Oil – July Soybean Oil 55/60 bull call spreads are about 1.15 cents.  The 50/47 Put spread is about 1 cent.  You could buy the call spread and sell the put spread for about 10 to 20 ticks. Each tick in bean oil is $6

    New Crop Soybeans – Nov Soybean $15 calls are about 24 cents. You could sell the $17 for 8 cents to make is a 16 cent spread for $2 of upside.  The $11.60/$11.00 puts are trading about 12 cents so you pay for most of the call spread by selling a put spread but you do open yourself up to 60 cents of risk.

    Old Crop Corn – $6 July Calls are 13 cents.  This is a bit of a flier but if acres don’t increase and we lose 5 to 10 bpa this summer, corn could be well above $6.  The $5.70/$6.20 July call spread is about 11 or 12 cents.  That is a good limited risk way to play old crop corn too.

    New Crop Corn – The Dec Corn $5/$6 call spread is about 25 cents.  The $4.40/$4.00 put spread is 13 cents. You could probably be long the call spread and short the put spread for around 12 cents.

    Interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing?  If so then click here to open an account.  If you are a a href="https://info.danielstrading.com/e2t/tc/VXblb63k7GYWW3h0GZM7lj-H0W1f4B6k4krgjtN8BHR5h5nxGrV3Zsc37CgBbsW99fzj71cZPZnW839-wD4Cb8gtW5MXc785jPpvzW15yxCb9dZ80xW45XS4-1wj69YW6L_3cg6JwbSpW8kvdd722vsDNW5tx6Rf3hD8wsW66zjvC69nbd6W2M_Lw88LcZ8nW4tjkXY2VR72rVYvsnd9cLyzVVSZd1q96QYDsW3jzx3_5GCZ0GN5JFb09pz-fyW1GlFvq59pBKcN8mSRLbZXmB...

    • 23 min
    Turner’s Take Podcast | Prospective Plantings Outlook

    Turner’s Take Podcast | Prospective Plantings Outlook

    Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 270

    If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!







    New Podcast

    This week we go over our thoughts on the Prospective Plantings report next week and what it could mean for corn and soybean prices. We don’t know what the report will say but we are expecting a lot of volatility if the numbers do not come in as expected.  Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!

    If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free!  You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.

    Prospective Plantings & Quarterly Stocks

    Below are the estimates for next week’s Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks report.  A few things jump out at me when looking at the tables below



    * 93mm acres corn and 90mm acres soybeans would be a new Corn+Soybean combined acreage total.  Given current prices I think these expectations are warranted

    * 93mm acres of corn and a trend line yield keeps corn in the $4s and $5s.  Only a significant weather scare could send old crop to $6 this summer.

    * 90mm acres of soybeans is TIGHT.  With a trend line yield we use as much as we produce. Old crop ending stocks are predicted to be 120mm bu.  At 90mm acres and a 50.5 bpa my estimates keeps new crop ending stocks at 120mm bu. No changes to ending stocks year-over-year

    * Corn March 1 stocks estimates are predicted be less than 200mm below last year.  In years past we have seen some big misses on the Quarterly Stocks report and it usually has to do with getting the feed number wrong.

    * Soybean stocks are going to be much tighter this year than last year at this point in the calendar.  Soybeans are very tight.



    Interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing?  If so then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here.





    Corn

    Below are my supply and demand tables for a few different scenarios. For old crop I assume the USDA keeps old crop exports at 2.6 billion.  I know many of you think exports could be 200mm to 400mm higher due to Chinese corn demand. I understand the argument but the USDA seems to think the increased buying from China is pushing traditional US corn customers to Ukraine or South America.

    • 34 min
    Turner’s Take Podcast | Market Chop

    Turner’s Take Podcast | Market Chop

    Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 269

    If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!







    New Podcast

    This week we go over the latest Fed meeting and why we still have a bullish outlook on the macro markets. We take a look into the recent energy sell off, the rally in livestock, and why the grain markets are grinding lower this month.  Make sure you take a listen to the latest Turner’s Take podcast!

    If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free!  You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.

    Fed Meeting Recap

    The Federal Reserve met this week and announced no changes to interest rates. This was expected and no surprise to the market.  I think the more important news was the Fed’s outlook on GDP, unemployment, and inflation.



    * 2021 GDP expected GDP growth now 6.5% compared to 4.2% in the Dec meeting

    * 2021 Unemployment expected 4.5% compared to 5.0 in Dec meeting

    * 2021 Inflation expected to rise to 2.4%, up from 1.8% in the last meeting



    These are bullish sentiments for the US economy and the commodity markets.

    Interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing?  If so then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here.

    Energy Markets

    Crude Oil broke hard today. Inventories climbed higher yesterday and the market was overbought.  A lot of the rally since the election has been due to US supply policy, OPEC not increasing production, and the expected energy growth this spring and summer.  Before Crude can make the next leg higher we will need to see real demand growth.  For now I think we trade between the mid $50s and mid $60s.

    Interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing?  If so a href="https://info.danielstrading.com/e2t/tc/VXblb63k7GYWW3h0GZM7lj-H0W1f4B6k4krgjtN8BHR733p_b1V1-WJV7Cg-dbW6ZmxhB4StHNlVKJ4M52lprGMW37LNfs38_DW8W7Mw00t31Cn3gV34R0c7l2mY3W7z_7tt8X6d5LW1GDY611mN-G1W49N9k_1tJV2mW1djGH16Gxk8lW887Xxv3fKjwVW80BfLK3TmSB_W6jD1Xj7kq1z6Vlt7rB3VSY_YW40tN3612WZMpW5wDQqs7kzn_MW9b2pNW2DbxlYW7sfxX83FxlrKW1CSsZ01q3VfTW4pybcl27KJRMW1WfZhn3KBc1pW3Xgfd569x441W6R49vW6Ht2bSW5_cBcL4Kq9xLW45p4-B4yRMCM...

    • 30 min

Customer Reviews

4.9 out of 5
28 Ratings

28 Ratings

dd03f7 ,

Great perspective

Hey where is your mid March update?

Brian-T ,

Easy to understand

This is a great podcast for anyone that’s wanting to get informed on what’s going on in the market side. He gives insights about why the market is going the way it is and what you can do to take advantage of it.

Light for Life ,

Superb quality, greatly informative, highly focused

Rare to find a podcast that focuses on the grains and soybeans to begin with to say nothing about one that does so with such intelligence and clarity. Turners Take does all that and more. Highly recommended.

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