Wellbeing by Aleksander Poniewierski Consulting

Aleksander Poniewierski

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Wellbeing by Aleksander Poniewierski Consulting

Every few days, I publish a post on my blog (www.APConsulting.tech) about leadership, technology, and business. Each post is a story inspired by a photo I took during my travels. I invite you to listen to short reflections on these posts. I use Google NotebookLM to create them.

1 DAY AGO

Black Friday

50 kilometers outside Warsaw, no one knows what the future of AI will look like. It's astonishing. There is a complete lack of respect and understanding of what is important. Of course, it's a bit ironic. Politicians, when asked about the price of bread or butter, don't know the answer. People in smaller towns or villages have no idea what ChatGPT is. Only a very small, almost microscopic part of society is aware of the decline in token prices or the time needed to train a model. The topic of new technologies is very important. Just as important as the economy, demographic issues, or national security. But for the average global citizen, these topics are secondary or even tertiary. A few years ago, I visited the R&D department of one of the largest universities in the United States. A group of young innovators there invented a shoe sole made using 3D technology. After a few years, these soles became the standard for most Adidas sneakers. Some people like them, others don’t care for them. Talking to these guys, I felt they were doing something extraordinary. They were changing the world and our everyday lives. Today, I don’t think about it at all. Only a vague memory of that meeting comes to mind whenever I put them on. What we discuss in very isolated expert, business, or political groups has little to do with the everyday problems of citizens around the world. It's important to realize this. A 10% drop in the price of gold or palladium on the Kuala Lumpur stock exchange is just as relevant to a villager near Poznań as the price of potatoes in Somalia or cattle in Ethiopia. There are about 300 million motorcycles in the world. Every Asian resort is teeming with them, not to mention India, where they are a primary mode of transport. But few people know that there are about 100 million AK-47 rifles (Kalashnikovs) worldwide, with over 50% in the hands of citizens, not the military. The estimated number of rounds of ammunition for these weapons is 21 billion, meaning there are nearly three rounds for every person on earth. 95% of companies worldwide are or will be users of artificial intelligence. Only 5% of companies create it to some extent. We buy, use, and don’t worry about the valuation of the companies producing it. Society, just like individual countries, has long been divided into givers and receivers in many different dimensions. Mass-market technology has been with us for 250 years. Consumer goods entered the market 100 years ago. In the average household in the Western world, fewer than 5% of items are older than 50 years, and that’s only because they have collector’s or sentimental value. In less developed economies, over 30% of items are older than 50 years. In the poorest regions of the world, this figure reaches nearly 50%. The consumerist society is bombarded with new products, trends, and is constantly encouraged to make more purchases. The problem of fast fashion, popularized with business models like Zalando, is being discussed more loudly. Ten years ago, Black Friday encouraged people to embark on long trips to shopping malls. Now we see an exponential rise in deliveries to our doorsteps. The question is whether modern technology has taken our jobs or if we simply no longer have shop assistants but delivery drivers. Habits, needs, and motivations are changing. But remember, we are only talking about 30% of the world’s population.

7 min
NOV 24

Obi-Wan vs Bill Ban

Obi-Wan vs Bill Ban Australia is considering a ban on social media use for children under the age of 16. Interestingly, the ban would apply even if parents consented to their children using such platforms. Biometric testing for this system is expected to begin later this year. On the one hand, it’s good that the issue is being acknowledged and systemic attempts are being made to address it. On the other hand, it’s easy to imagine workarounds, from VPNs to registering devices in other countries. What puzzles me, though, is why, in a world increasingly captivated by AI, we’re not exploring effective methods of using this tool to cleanse social networks of harmful content. Instead, we choose the seemingly simplest but least effective route. Why aren’t platform operators obligated to verify content and counteract harmful phenomena? Public television and radio stations are required to control their content. The responsibility for socially responsible business practices falls squarely on them. So why do we accept that social platforms are not accountable for the content they host? If they can recommend content with surgical precision through behavioral engines, why can’t they counteract harmful material? Ah, yes, there’s freedom of speech and access to adult content. The business must go on, of course. It reminds me of Tolkien’s Gandalf or his mentor-like counterpart, Obi-Wan Kenobi. Someone would have to determine what is good and what is bad. Social reactions, like reporting harmful content, are ineffective because they require statistical confirmation. Even when such confirmation exists, platforms often ignore reports. I’ve conducted experiments, and current mechanisms are ineffective. What about AI? Could it serve something positive instead of churning out frivolous images or monotonous melodies? Absolutely. The problem is, no one seems interested. Youth under 16 years old make up over 30% of social media users. The proportion of educational and worldview-shaping content is less than 10% of the platforms' offerings. The rest consists of drama, controversies, donation-seeking (e.g., TikTokers insulting viewers with comments like, “Are you too poor to send gifts? Get lost.”), and various scams. The problem is, such content drives clicks and views. What if live streams were automatically blocked (like they currently are when someone lights up a cigarette on camera), and the creator was permanently banned? Would humanity suffer a loss? Blocking a user’s account for a single indecent word or harmful behavior could change platforms forever—perhaps even drive them to extinction. Looking at it this way, we face a question: should we prohibit children from watching drunken brawls, or should we ban online broadcasts of such events altogether? Wouldn’t it be better to sell alcohol or other substances in strictly designated and controlled locations (physical and digital) rather than create complicated access restriction systems? Why should all citizens fund control systems when the costs could be passed on to companies running such businesses? It reminds me of establishments like strip clubs or nightclubs. Nobody demands biometric proof or other complex control systems there. Clear regulations apply to business owners, with severe penalties for violations.

14 min
NOV 23

The Power of Suggestion

The Power of Suggestion Friday, June 14, 2024 by Aleksander Poniewierski, APConsulting We all know that expensive perfumes smell better than cheap ones. A heavy wine bottle must contain a superior drink. A well-dressed gentleman scores more points with future in-laws than one in casual attire. Even a pricey car creates the perception that its driver (often not the owner) is a wealthy person. We fall for appearances. Sociologists conduct various studies to understand and explain why we are so susceptible to suggestion. The placebo effect or Asch's conformity experiments demonstrate that, as a rule, we are very easily influenced. This tendency is often ruthlessly exploited by various fraudsters to our detriment. In nature, the suggestive colors of insects or birds are designed to mislead potential predators. In a store, they aim to persuade wealthy customers to make purchases. Things are not as they appear or as they are described. In today’s world, this applies especially—if not primarily—to technology. From everyday tools to sophisticated devices for aesthetic medicine, the art of manipulation has reached new levels. In the world of data, this manipulation is used even more relentlessly. A few days ago, Apple unveiled its new iOS 18 operating system. Hundreds of articles hailed the innovations and features that will “change our world forever.” In reality, it’s just a handful of minor improvements and gimmicks (and the intelligent assistant isn’t even available yet—for those eager to download the developer beta, don’t bother). Meanwhile, heated debates rage on about an allegedly unforgivable clause in Adobe’s new terms of service. This clause asks users to accept that the results of their work—e.g., photos or graphics—can be used to train AI algorithms. Few noticed that such a provision (albeit in a different form) has been part of the Creative Cloud license agreement for quite some time. Euphoria and outrage. Proclamations of a new era or the end of the world. Conformity driven by the faces of famous celebrities or multimillionaires makes us believe in fairy tales. Naivety or laziness? Or perhaps a tendency to rely on "authorities" without even skimming the details? Yesterday, I read an excellent analysis of the behavior and content published by a national security influencer. It was a short text but brilliantly described how easily we allow ourselves to be manipulated—or even have stereotypes or ways of thinking implanted in our minds—just because this influencer looks good, has a calm, intelligent-sounding voice, and an appealing demeanor. What they say doesn’t really matter, as most of us don’t rationally analyze facts; we simply accept them as truth. It’s like listening to songs in Spanish, Korean, or English when you don’t know the language. You have no idea what the song is about, but it sounds good. The problem arises when you use such a song as background music for a video and publish it. If you're unlucky, that combination might be, at best, laughable. The power of suggestion is a formidable weapon, and when wielded in social media, it shapes the perceptions, preferences, and choices of millions.

12 min
NOV 16

Business Botox

Jake Paul defeated Mike Tyson. The real sensation would have been if the result had been the opposite. But is that truly the case? Instead of commenting on the fight itself, I’ll focus on the business model concept of capitalizing on sentiment. It turns out that grand comebacks and “golden shots” are natural business models embedded in the life cycle of an investment project. Leveraging sentiment or reviving an old, well-known brand can serve as a way to extend the S-curve in Porter’s theory. Products (and undoubtedly, sports stars are also products) that evoke nostalgia and remind us of the most exciting times of our lives—when they were out of reach, too expensive, or inaccessible—sell exceptionally well when we grow up. However, this "second life" of a product is a unique offering that requires skillful marketing. Efforts directed at a singular event, such as the “boxing match of the century” or a concert featuring a band giving a one-time-only performance after 20 years, must be monetized to the fullest: a Netflix documentary, a “new” yet familiar album, or an array of merchandise. The art lies in maximizing profits from that one “shot.” The situation is different with the comeback of brands. Many iconic brands return after a period of obscurity with a new twist, achieving varying degrees of success. Retro watches, chewing gums, juices, car brands, shoes, or eyewear—all share a common goal: finding a new audience by tapping into the nostalgia of parents or guardians. Big comebacks aim to preserve the seemingly iconic appearance while integrating significant doses of modern technology. It’s like a “wolf in sheep’s clothing”—of course, in this comparison, both the wolf and the sheep carry positive connotations. Sometimes, however, companies opt for a “botox injection.” A powerful and profitable brand, threatened by a new competitor, decides to buy them out to extend its own glory. An intriguing example is Unilever. After numerous acquisitions in the shaving market (including Gillette), it faced the rapid rise of the subscription-based startup One Dollar Shave Club. This business model quickly became a hit in the U.S. Unable to compete with the phenomenon, Unilever decided to acquire the company. For a time, the company attempted to reconcile two different business models under one roof, but this proved unworkable. The values a company upholds and communicates to its customers must remain consistent. While it’s possible to own various brands catering to different demographics—wealthier and less affluent audiences, for instance—operating two business models is inefficient. Last year, Unilever sold One Dollar Shave Club to the Nexus fund. The very next day, a negative campaign began, and the iconic Gillette started regaining market share. Business botox or “powdering the nose” (not to be confused with the concept from Pulp Fiction) can be highly profitable if well-planned. However, as with any interference with “nature”—in this case, the market—it can lead to devastation and a bitter aftertaste.

6 min
NOV 11

make Poland great NARESZCIE

MAKE POLAND GREAT AT LAST – on Independence Day, November 11 People have very different views on the world around them. An old Indian parable about a group of blind men and an elephant perfectly captures the classic issue of perspectives and awareness. It goes something like this: several blind men touch an elephant and try to describe it. One touches the trunk and says, "The elephant is a soft tube." Another touches the tail and says, "No, the elephant is a thick rope." Yet another touches the tusks and says, "Absolutely not, the elephant is a smooth stick." Of course, each of the blind men is right, but only in a certain part of the reality. In consulting, they say the secret of success lies in the ability to see the whole problem—the *BIG PICTURE*. Without getting into details, without interpreting individual features, flaws, or advantages. Only by seeing the whole and removing emotions can we assess the situation and choose an appropriate strategy. Today, there is much talk about the state's digitalization strategy, an AI strategy for our country, and investment plans. And it’s very good that this is being discussed. It’s very good that people are interested and that there are those who want to make a difference. However, observing this, I see a certain trap, like in the elephant parable—the lack of a clear, single-sentence *"why."* Donald Trump, in his previous presidential campaign, had a fantastic slogan: *"Make America Great Again."* Wonderfully simple and very meaningful. For me, America was a dream. During my studies, I wanted to flee to America and start my professional life there. Later, I visited the country hundreds of times. I have businesses there. It is a wonderful country, but something went wrong. It lost its charm, declined. And people living there, not seeing the change, long for a return to the status of the 1980s—Ronald Reagan’s America. Great, magnificent, a leader setting trends in all disciplines. *"Again"*—a clear direction for another chance. *Why* do we need a digitalization strategy or AI development in Poland? Certainly, we can’t copy the concept of "Again." But perhaps we should have our own *"At Last"*? The last 30 years have been an exceptionally important period for Poland. Wonderful. From political transformation, through economic, to cultural. At least two generations of Poles have benefited from this period. Everything has changed for the better, whether in the countryside or in the heart of an urban agglomeration. In my view, however, we still underinvest in science and education. There is also a neglected area of resource and energy independence. I remember nearly 20 years ago when successive governments were urged to modernize energy, water management, and public services. But there are always more urgent issues. Only when it hurts do we address it. We even have our own saying: *"A Pole is wise after the fact."* We have had substantial support from EU funds for the last few years (3-5). The question is, can we use them wisely? At least as well as we did with infrastructure? But this time, let’s do it for services and knowledge. Let’s invest in the information society, in ecosystems for creating technological solutions (and not only ICT, though that’s the easiest to focus on). Are we afraid of war? Rightly so. Let’s invest in defensive, but also offensive, cyber technologies. Are we afraid of losing competitiveness? Let’s invest in logistics and planning data and algorithms. Are we, finally, afraid of the demographic crisis? Let’s invest in new competencies and sectors of the economy, where relieving people from trivial tasks through AI will allow us to use human resources for creative work. We have our window. Most importantly, we have incentives (even a few) and funds. Let’s strive to motivate as many blind men as possible to express their opinions about the elephant, but let the enlightened, those who see the big picture, also o

11 min
NOV 10

When I Am a (Romantic) God

When I Am a (Romantic) God Monday, June 24, 2024 by Aleksander Poniewierski, APConsulting In my hometown of Katowice, in the district of Bogucice, lived the king of early Polish hip-hop - Magik. He wrote in the words of an iconic song: > "(...) Because I am God, realize that > You hear the words that make your hair stand on end > Oh dear, oh dear, I am unbeatable (...)" He was talented but born in the wrong place and time. Nowadays, Paktofonika’s music and its bone-chilling lyrics would likely struggle to get airtime on commercial radio stations, but at least he’d have a chance to pay the electricity bills with royalties. As the saying goes, you have to choose: either you're a legend, or a commercial influencer leaving nothing behind. The band was great, and Magik’s story will live on in the history of the Polish music scene. Probably, his death significantly contributed to the myth. Mystery and speculation fuel imagination. Assumptions are made, and a sense of injustice grows. This is precisely what drives popularity—in his case, unfortunately, posthumously. Last week, we had two viral stories. The first was about the departure of one of the masterminds behind OpenAI, Ilya Sutskever, the company’s chief scientist, who decided to start his own AI firm based on deep ethical values—a company called Safe Superintelligence Inc. The announcements are enormous. Safe super AI, ethical creation and use. The internet buzzed because, either with Elon Musk’s circle of investors, he’s trying to prove it can be done differently, or he knows something we are not fully aware of and wants history to judge him not as a misjudged genius but as a rebellious one. On the other side of the internet, we have a girl known as "hawk tuah," who participated in a street interview, gave a humorous answer to a question, and not only went viral but within just 48 hours generated a craze for T-shirts, caps, and song remixes with her answer (which I won’t quote here for obvious reasons). In Tennessee and even other states in America, people are searching for this “star,” while tattoo studios are recording record profits from creating tattoos of her likeness and the slogan that will undoubtedly become the summer hit. We need idols and contemporary crowd-pleasers. It has always been this way and always will be. We need sensation and speculation. We need legends, even if they are stars of a single sentence, like our “spitter.” We need moving stories and, as Gen Z says, drama. We need to envy, even if just for a moment, the luck of being in the right place at the right time. We need heroes who defy the mainstream. Defiant rebels. Konrad Wallenrods fighting the system, or Magiks who tell of their lives in a romantic way. We need someone to say "no" for us—rebels. We also need the circus of “pathology” to say... what kind of people, what kind of values, while sharing their content further, for laughs, for fun, and for a semblance of disapproval.

10 min
NOV 4

(In) a Different Light Uncertain times.

(In) a Different Light Uncertain times. Or perhaps highly predictable ones. We’ve grown accustomed to a very simplistic view of the world. In politics, the Left fights the Right; Democrats battle Republicans. For the past several decades, economic, political, and social analysts have been confidently predicting what will happen. And things did happen, following a readable pattern. Whenever analysts forecasted a crash in gold or cryptocurrencies, instead of selling, one should have bought. When a hot summer was predicted, it was almost certain it would rain. Something seems broken now. The recent elections in France are thought-provoking. The U.S. presidential candidates, their public speeches, and debates make us wonder how it's possible that, in such a large country, there aren’t more suitable politicians to lead the world’s largest economy during a crisis and offer hope that everything is under control. Or perhaps that’s precisely the point—to shake everyone out of the sense of security and the belief that everything is okay. Tech companies visibly struggle to find a new strong development trend. AI may still inspire hope for a better tomorrow, but when you look at the broader IT market, a slump is visible after the extraordinary growth during the COVID era. Property owners are starting to realize that the seemingly safe and profitable rental business is slowing down, if not becoming outright unprofitable. And finally, the intensifying atmosphere of impending armed conflict in more and more parts of the world exacerbates the sense of uncertainty. Nothing that was once considered certain seems so anymore. Moreover, there are no new safe havens or hopeful prospects emerging for ordinary people, businesses, or even entire nations. Depolarization began some time ago, as wise minds have noted. Now it’s time for a new worldview, one likely different from the one we’ve known. There is a lack of clear leaders to show a new direction. Universal prosperity pushes us to focus on at least secondary matters (take, for example, the issue of bottle caps or phone chargers). Harder issues, though visible, await self-resolution, in line with the classic principle that half of all problems solve themselves, and someone else will take care of the other half. But I have a feeling that this time, it may not work that way. You’re probably wondering why this blog is here and why it has such a gloomy tone. It stems from my observations of the ongoing debate over the past few months, the decisions being made by democracies worldwide, and the matters dominating the headlines. Prepare for the last "standard" summer. Autumn will bring a turning point for everything.

7 min
NOV 3

Patterns of Eternity

Patterns of Eternity It is often said that history repeats itself. There is little doubt that due to human nature, technological cycles, economic phases, and daily life tend to follow familiar patterns. Nations are oppressed, they fight for freedom. A revolution, often bloody, reshapes the fate of a polarized society. The oppressed win and, with songs on their lips, proclaim ideas of freedom. This state doesn’t last long, however, as power corrupts—as Lord Acton once said. After some time, something in the system shifts, and those who were once oppressed begin to oppress their former oppressors. And so the cycle repeats. In business, it's similar. A company emerges out of nowhere, achieves success. This state lasts a few years, or in some cases, decades, until eventually someone comes along and disrupts the established order. Giants fall into history, and new ones rise from their ashes. In small towns, wealth accumulates around families running businesses. Within a few seasons, they become the wealthiest family; everyone talks about them. Then something happens—either they go bankrupt or get into trouble with the law, after which they disappear from the scene. For a time, legends circulate about how wealthy and influential they once were. Locals remember their grand house, and the most prominent family tomb remains in the cemetery. Those who learn from history strive to preserve the memory of their greatness forever. They invest in a "legacy"—something intended to outlast them. In America, they fund universities or build infrastructure. Leaders have monuments erected in their honor, and biographies are written about businessmen. Scientists lend their names to discoveries, formulas, or inventions. Everyone wants to live forever, hoping that the memory of their achievements will overshadow the negative stories of their lives. Sometimes this works; sometimes it doesn’t. Technologies, too, have their cycles. The most groundbreaking ones, even when no longer protected by patents, remain part of our daily lives. Georges de Mestral, who invented Velcro in the 1940s, knew that his invention needed to reach "the masses." Today, we can’t imagine a ski jacket or motorcycle gear without Velcro. His invention only became widespread, however, after NASA used it in astronaut suits. We all use the Internet, but only a few know who developed the TCP/IP protocol. The same goes for medicines and consumer electronics. Historical, economic, and technological cycles share another distinctive element. Each new cycle champions an ideal and negates the previous state. This pairing—new and old—is ever-present, like the sun and the moon, night and day. To communicate with people, the masses, you need models, simple frameworks. Only then can they understand and accept. In a short span, people cannot grasp abstract concepts. Effective marketing, therefore, points out the flaws of the previous solution and finds patterns associated with well-being. "Don’t eat chemically stimulated food; eat organic because it’s healthy." "Don’t use combustion engine cars; use clean energy." And even though we sense a certain manipulation in such messages, we accept it. We even actively seek out these patterns. Because each of us likes to complain and believes in a better tomorrow.

6 min

Every few days, I publish a post on my blog (www.APConsulting.tech) about leadership, technology, and business. Each post is a story inspired by a photo I took during my travels. I invite you to listen to short reflections on these posts. I use Google NotebookLM to create them.

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Aleksander Poniewierski
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Wellbeing by Aleksander Poniewierski Consulting