114 episodes

What Happens Next offers listeners an in-depth investigation of the most pressing issues of the day.
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What Happens Next in 6 Minutes Larry Bernstein

    • Education
    • 5.0 • 40 Ratings

What Happens Next offers listeners an in-depth investigation of the most pressing issues of the day.
Visit https://www.whathappensnextin6minutes.com/ for all the links and to subscribe

www.whathappensnextin6minutes.com

    Rise of Authoritarianism

    Rise of Authoritarianism

    Larry Bernstein:

    Welcome to What Happens Next. My name is Larry Bernstein. 

    What Happens Next is a podcast which covers economics, finance, history, politics and current events. 

    Today’s session is on the risk of authoritarianism.  We have two guests.  Our first speaker is Moises Naim who is a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the author of the new book entitled Revenge of Power.

    Moises will tell us about how populism, polarization, and post-truth undermine the democratic process.  And that there is a global trend in the past few decades away from democracies towards more authoritarian regimes.

    Our second speaker will be Julian Waller who is a political scientist at George Washington University, and he has a new paper that was recently published in the magazine American Affairs entitled Authoritarianism here?

    Julian will speak about why strong democratic governance in the US makes it unlikely that authoritarianism can take hold in the US because of the diffusion of power within the Federal government and how state and local control through federalism strengthens democracy.

    Buckle up.

    If you missed last week’s podcast check it out.  The topic was part three of our ongoing history of World War 2 with Paul Kennedy who is the J Richardson Dilworth Professor of History at Yale.  Paul has a new book out entitled Victory at Sea: Naval Power and the Transformation of the Global Order in WW2.

    This episode focused on the fateful year 1943 when the war was won.  Paul explained why the US decided to invade North Africa instead of Europe, as a trial balloon. Why North Africa was followed by an invasion of Italy to knock Mussolini out of the war.  And, we learned about the internal strife within the allied alliance, the disputes between the armed services, and why the allies ultimately won the war.

    Let’s begin today’s session on authoritarianism with Moises Naim.

    Moises Naim

    Topic: Populism, Polarization, and Post-Truth
    Bio: Scholar at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Former Editor in Chief of Foreign Policy
    Reading: Revenge of Power: How Autocrats are Reinventing Politics in the 21st Century is here

    Opening Remarks:

    This past decade has been rich in world changing events. Almost unnoticed is the global crisis of democracy. There is a global onslaught against the checks and balances that define a democracy. Undemocratic systems are on the rise. They currently account for 70% of the world population. That is 5.4 billion people live in non-democracies, according to studies by the university of Gutenberg. A decade earlier, the percentage of people without democracy was 49%. So that was a decade in which democracy became a system of governing that is in danger of extinction.

    Not since 1978 has there been such a low number of countries in the process of democratizing. There are two reasons why the democratic backsliding didn't cause alarm. The first is that there were just too many other urgent problems to successfully compete for the attention of the media, public opinion: the pandemic, the global financial crisis, Brexit, and the war in Ukraine -- left little room for non-immediate emergencies. The second reason is that most attacks in democracy were deliberately difficult to detect, which made it much more difficult for people to fight back. But the reality is -- and this is according to the University of Gutenberg -- the level of democracy enjoyed by the average global citizen in 2021 is down to 1989 levels.

    Of 195 countries, only 34 are overall democracies. This profound, important structural change took place stealthily. There is a new crop of autocrats that present themselves as democrats and then stealthily undermine democracy from within. They win elections, they get to power and immediately they start on weakening checks and balances that characterize a democracy. They do that by using three strategies that I call the three Ps: populism, polarization, and pos

    • 40 min
    1943: The Year that Decided the Outcome of WW2

    1943: The Year that Decided the Outcome of WW2

    Sneak Preview of Next Week’s Episode with Moisés Naím

    Topic: Populism, Polarization, and Post-Truth
    Bio: Scholar at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Former Editor in Chief of Foreign Policy
    Reading: Revenge of Power: How Autocrats are Reinventing Politics in the 21 st Century is here

    Larry Bernstein

    Welcome to What Happens Next. My name is Larry Bernstein. What Happens Next is a podcast which covers economics, finance, history, politics and current events. 

    Today’s session is the third part of our ongoing history of World War 2.

    Our speaker is Paul Kennedy is the J Richardson Dilworth Professor of History at Yale.  He has a new book out entitled Victory at Sea: Naval Power and the Transformation of the Global Order in WW2.

    This episode Part 3 will focus on the fateful year 1943 when the war was won.  Paul will tell us why the US decided to invade North Africa instead of Europe, as a trial balloon. Why North Africa was followed up with an invasion of Italy that subsequently knocked Mussolini of the war.  We will learn about the internal strife within the allied alliance, the disputes between the armed services, and why the allies won.

    Let’s begin.

    Paul Kennedy

    Topic: Part 3 of the History of WW2 - 1943: The Year that Decides the Outcome of the War
    Bio: J. Richardson Dilworth Professor of History at Yale
    Reading: Victory at Sea is here

    Opening Remarks
    In the immediate aftermath of Pearl Harbor, after Churchill had come to the White House, the Grand Alliance was facing three enemies: Nazi Germany, Mussolini’s Italy, and Japan.

    You couldn’t take all three of them on at once, certainly not in 1941 to 1942. So, what is the batting order? You have to understand where the two great combatants on the Western Ally side are sitting. For the United States, a terrible attack on Pearl Harbor, and there was pressure from Congressmen, from the public, from the US Navy to make the Pacific campaign by far number one.

    For the British, they had just escaped invasion the year before. They were in the fight against Nazi Germany and its buddy Italy, and they wanted a European-centric war and the Pacific coming next. Thank heavens by 1943, US productivity is such it can have both. But it couldn't then.

    Now let's get to the three-armed services of the United States,

    The US Navy, it not only wants to be in the Pacific first, because it feels so badly hurt by Pearl Harbor, but because in the Pacific, it's likely that Pacific commanders, like Admiral Nimitz, would have the main role. For the two other US armed services, the Europe first strategy was attractive. For the US Army it was attractive because these dinky little islands in the Pacific offered no chance of putting a million strong American soldiers in.

    The European campaign, the US Army would be the lead service. For the US Air Force under Hap Arnold is certainly intent upon building these enormous, long range, four engine, strategic bombers to blast the enemy's economy, railway systems, productivity, and get victory in the war that way. And it was hard to imagine anywhere in the Pacific where you could have air bases to put 2,000 B-17 and B-24s, whereas if the Air Force went to join the Royal Air Force Bomber Command, it could start the systematic attacks upon German industry.

    When you looked at the techno-industrial capacities of the three Axis powers, Germany was the country which was most likely, Larry, to deal you a really severe blow if it developed some of its super weapons.

    Remember by 1941, '42, there was even a great apprehension fueled by Einstein's urgent messages to Roosevelt that Germany might acquire the atomic bomb. So, there were a lot of reasons why it was Germany first.

    Thank you for reading What Happens Next in 6 Minutes with Larry Bernstein. This post is public so feel free to share it.

    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.whathappens

    • 42 min
    Partisanship and Religion and the Importance of Innovation in Politics

    Partisanship and Religion and the Importance of Innovation in Politics

    Sneak Preview of Next Week’s Episode with Professor Paul Kennedy

    Topic: Part 3 of the History of WW2 - 1943: The Year that Decides the Outcome of the War
    Bio: J. Richardson Dilworth Professor of History at Yale
    Reading: Victory at Sea is here

    Larry Bernstein

    Welcome to What Happens Next. My name is Larry Bernstein. 

    What Happens Next is a podcast which covers economics, finance, history, politics and current events. 

    Today’s session is on the interplay between partisanship and religiosity as well as innovation in politics.

    Our first speaker will be Michele Margolis who is an Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania.  Michele has a new book entitled From Politics to the Pews: How Partisanship and the Political Environment Shape Religious Identity.

    Michele believes that most political scientists misunderstand the role of religion and partisanship. The commonly held view is that religious people tend to vote Republican.  Michele believes that partisanship is the driving force and that Republicans want to be religious to fit in with their political ideology and correspondingly Democrats become more secular.

    Our second speaker will be Julian Zelizer who is the Malcolm Stevenson Forbes, Class of 1941, Professor of History and Public Affairs at Princeton University.  He has a book entitled Burning Down the House: Newt Gingrich and the Rise of the New Republican Party.

    Julian will talk about the rise of Newt Gingrich and his success of winning the HOUSE for the Republicans in 1994 for the first time in 40 years.  Julian will explain Gingrich’s political innovations like using C-Span, a Contract of America that nationalized a mid-term election, and aggressive use of ethic rules toppled the Speaker and led to a Republican victory.  I think the 1994 mid-terms has important similarities for the upcoming mid-term elections.

    Let’s start with Michele Margolis.

    Michele Margolis

    Topic: Does Partisanship Explain Religiosity?
    Bio: Associate Professor of Political Science at University of Pennsylvania
    Reading: From Politics to the Pews: How Partisanship and the Political Environment Shape Religious Identity is here

    Opening Remarks
    An axiom of contemporary American politics is that Republicans are religious, and Democrats are less so. This is sometimes called the God gap or the religiosity gap, and it represents one of the most important and enduring social cleavages in the electorate. This God gap is relatively new. Prior to this, we thought of religious divides and partisanship in voting being along ethno-religious lines. Catholics were Democrats, mainline Protestants were Republicans, but this God gap is a coalition based on religiosity that is how devout you are.

    Devout Catholics, church attending mainline Protestants, church attending evangelicals, Christians who don't use any of those labels, they're the ones who make up the Republican Party and the less religious are more likely to be Democratic.

    If you compare the partisanship to those who attend weekly, which is about a quarter of the population, compared to people who don't attend church at all, that's about a 30% of the population. Only 25% of the population who never attend church identify as a Republican compared to 55% of those who attend weekly.

    The conventional story is that religion and religiosity influenced politics. The Republican Party started to use more religious rhetoric and taking up religious issues such as abortion, gay marriage, school prayer.

    The parties were not separated on abortion in the '70s. And the conventional story is the parties shifted. They split and people saw these differences and then they moved their partisanship and their vote choices based on their religiosity.  The religious people moved into the Republican camp; the non-religious moved into the Democratic camp.

    American religion is changing. Who belongs to what faith, whether you identify with a faith or not, what church you go t

    • 52 min
    INFLATION!

    INFLATION!

    Read the full transcript:

    Larry Bernstein:
    Welcome to What Happens Next. My name is Larry Bernstein.

    What Happens Next is a podcast which covers economics, finance, history, politics and current events.

    Today’s session is on inflation and Fed policies to bring it back under control.

    Our first speaker is John Taylor who is the Mary and Robert Raymond Professor of Economics at Stanford. John is famous for developing the Taylor Rule. John will explain his Taylor rule for setting the optimal short-term interest rate and why interest rates need to rise to quell rising inflation.

    Our second speaker is Casey Mulligan who is the Ken Griffin Professor of Economics at University of Chicago’s Booth School and the Former Chief Economist for the Council of Economic Advisors in the Trump Administration. Casey will explain how government stimulus increased inflation and discouraged employment. He will also discuss his recent work in the pharmaceutical industry that shows how middlemen helped lower prices for consumers.

    Our final speaker is Alan Auerbach who was my economics professor when I was a student at Penn. Alan is currently the Robert D. Burch Professor of Economics and Law at UC Berkeley. Alan will discuss the dynamics between current inflation and employment.

    I chose the topic of inflation for this week’s podcast because the CPI statistic released this week was up 9.1% which was the highest annual rate of inflation since 1981. The price of energy is up 41% on the year, food is up 10.4% and all other items are up 5.9%. It is the ex-food and energy inflation that is most disturbing because it indicates the breadth of the inflationary problem.

    The detail of the CPI report is also informative. Rent was up 0.8% last month alone which was the largest monthly increase in 36 years. Dental services increased 1.9% last month and was the largest monthly increase in dental expenses ever recorded. Motor vehicle maintenance rose by 2.0% last month, the largest increase for any month in 48 years.

    Rent, Dentistry, and Auto Maintenance price increases cannot be blamed on fighting in Ukraine, or supply chain problems at the ports. This is good old-fashioned inflation caused by too much money chasing too few goods and services.

    The Fed is raising interest rates but they are late to the party. We are going to hear today from a monetary specialist, a labor market economist, and a macroeconomist on how to bring inflation back under control.

    John Taylor

    Topic: What the Fed Needs to Do to Fix the Problem
    Bio: Mary and Robert Raymond Professor of Economics at Stanford

    Opening Remarks
    The FED got behind the curve.

    There was another period where the FED was behind almost as much, and it was back in the 70s, when Arthur Burns was the chair of the FED, President Nixon was the President of the United States. And Arthur Burns said, “Hey, it’s not us. It’s you.” And so, he convinced Nixon to have wage and price controls on the whole economy. And, it was a disaster. And eventually, people wised up and realized it was monetary policy and, we learned from that experience. But, what’s surprising now is the FED has never been so far behind, when inflation rate’s 5%, 6%, 7% even higher by some measure.

    The 70s, the FED got so far behind, they had to catch-up. And catching up was damaging. So, this particular episode is different and inflation is not seven or eight years old, it’s a year and a half old or two years at the most. That’s what the advantages of a rule or a strategy is, the FED could indicate that, “look, we can’t have inflation this high and have interest rates this low. So, we’re gonna have to raise it.”

    Some of the members of the FOMC have already begun to talk about that it has to be over 3% or so. What’s most important now is the FED indicates inflation is high, expectations of inflation are high, people are worried, we’re gonna have to raise rates. And that’s not bad, that’s good for the economy.

    • 49 min
    Eyewitness Account of the Highland Park Massacre

    Eyewitness Account of the Highland Park Massacre

    Larry Bernstein:
    Welcome to What Happens Next. My name is Larry Bernstein. What Happens Next is a podcast which covers economics, finance, history, politics and current events.

    Today’s session revolves around two eyewitness accounts of the Highland Park Illinois July 4th Parade Massacre.

    I was born and raised in Glencoe which is a couple of miles from the killing zone. My friends and family were at the Highland Park parade. Today, we will hear from my brother-in-law David Baum who is married to my wife’s sister Debra. And then we will hear from David’s daughter Brittany Wroblewski who is my niece.

    Brittany marched in the parade with her son Blake moments before the shooting began.

    We are going to start the conversation with my brother-in-law David Baum who is an obstetrician in Highland Park.

    David Baum

    David, you were at the parade, what happened?

    David Baum:
    We were at the event to watch my grandson walk in the Children's Parade, which happened. The Children's Parade happened at 9:15, which is a yearly event in Highland Park. The kids go on scooters and tricycles, bikes. Some parents are pushing in strollers. I would think that there were hundreds of families walking with their kids, as my daughter and my son-in-law and my grandson walked. My grandson pushed his little bubble lawnmower. My concern was for people. Every time I saw a truck go by on a side street, I always thought of what happened last year in Wisconsin, which is just because I'm a paranoid grandfather.

    The Children's Parade finishes, then the police and firetruck and search and rescue teams from the community. Then the Highland Park Marching Band comes through. Then there was a little lull before some of the other couple floats and a little klezmer band was to come through. Then the shots rang out. It was a series of incredible sounds that I've never heard before, never having actually been in close proximity to gunfire, but these were like sonic booms. These were just rapid fire, rapid fire, as you've heard. You've seen the audio. There was a couple 15- seconds delay while he probably put another clip in and then another 40 shots rang out. There was probably within 30 seconds, people were screaming, "Bodies down, bodies down, bodies down," and people started just running every different direction. That's it.

    Brittany Wroblewski

    Larry Bernstein:
    I would like to turn now to David’s daughter Brittany. You marched in the Highland Park Parade with your son, and you were present when the shooting started. What happened?

    Brittany Wroblewski:
    Yeah. Unfortunately, my family was at the wrong place at the wrong time, but luck aligned for us in almost every way. If you would've altered one detail, our fate would've been very, very different. But on the 4th of July, we had what I would describe as boring suburban plans. Our plan was to take our two-year-old to the Highland Park parade and then have a family barbecue. My husband and I both actually grew up in Highland Park and we made a very intentional choice to move to Highland Park and raise our family in Highland Park because it's such a wonderful and beautiful community. So, growing up, I used to do the Highland Park children's parade which starts 30 minutes before the main parade does at 10:00 AM. And this year, I was telling Chris, it's really nostalgic for me to be a parent now in the parade and walking Blake down and all the kids decorate their bicycles and their tricycles.

    My son who's two decorated a little lawnmower that he likes to push and it blows bubbles. And we were walking, waving to tons of community members who we know, family, friends, classmates, families of his. And my son who's two couldn't do the whole loop. It was just too much for him. So, we detoured and cut out early to go meet my family who was Blake's cheering section outside of our local Dairy Queen lined up. And we had just gotten to my parents' blanket and chairs and everyone was hugging Blake and telling him what a

    • 33 min
    Future of the City

    Future of the City

    Host: Larry Bernstein. Guest is Deyan Sudjic.

    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.whathappensnextin6minutes.com

    • 50 min

Customer Reviews

5.0 out of 5
40 Ratings

40 Ratings

PD Herrlinger ,

Best weekly analysis of global issues

This is an amazing series. Each week, an eclectic group of domain experts speak for a crisp six minutes on a timely topic, mostly connected to the current Covid-19 pandemic. Every week brings a pleasant surprise of learning about a topic I had never thought about. And the experts get to question each other.

The highlight, of course, is Larry Bernstein’s monthly analysis of the Non-farm Labor Report that comes out the first Thursday of each month. Not to be missed!

the podcast maven ,

Amazing insight in 6 minute blocks

This is one of my favorite podcasts. Larry Bernstein has an extraordinary array of academics, executives, investors, and other experts sharing their views on the most timely issues of the day in crisp 6 minute segments.

Data junky ,

Excellent program now available as podcast

I've been listening to WHN since the second episode. Great format (6 minutes /speaker), excellent and varied speakers. Knowledgeable and extremely well read host asks insightful questions. I love to tune in for the live show on Sunday afternoon, but it's great knowing I can listen to the podcast for any that I miss.

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