57 min
Why Crash Predictions Don’t Help | What Does the Market Fear? | Confusing Market Data | 11th Best Start to the Year Broken Pie Chart
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- Investing
Jay Pestrichelli checks in with Derek Moore to discuss people that always predict horrible market crashes are coming and why it’s so unhelpful for investors. Then they talk through what the market fears (besides the normal stuff) at this point including profit margins and looming strikes. Why is economic data so confusing and if its broken. Finally, they go through the S&P 500 having the 11th best 1st half and compare this market cycle to the 2000 bear market.
Fear and market crash prediction do investors no good in the long run.
What does the best 1st half market years tell us about the rest of the year’s returns?
S&P 500 Index has the 11th best first half of a year.
Beyond inflation, what is left for the market to fear?
How profit margins may be the next thing to watch
The relationship between sales, margins, and earnings
The economic data is all over the place.
Leading economic indicators would seem to indicate recession, but other things are just fine.
PPI minus CPI plotted against GAAP earnings over past years.
What does PPI coming down greater than CPI tell us if anything?
Surprising that the Dow Jones DIA ETF has a higher total return than SPY since inception.
The number of workers on strike by year could hit some recent highs in 2023.
What would large numbers of workers striking mean for the economy?
Comparing 2000 bear market vs 2022 bear market
Mentioned in this Episode:
Does Inflation Matter? | Make More by Losing Less? | Volatility and Cost of Hedging | Someone Buys a lot of VIX Calls
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/does-inflation-matter-make-more-by-losing-less-volatility/id1432836154?i=1000621261669
Short Sellers Give Up? | The Case for Interest Rates to Stay High for Longer https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/short-sellers-give-up-the-case-for-interest-rates-to/id1432836154?i=1000620571083
Nasdaq 100 Index Strong First Half Equals Strong Second Half? | Overbought or not? | Trying to Guess the Forward PE Multiple Is Hard!https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nasdaq-100-index-strong-first-half-equals-strong-second/id1432836154?i=1000619186796
Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr
Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com
Jay Pestrichelli checks in with Derek Moore to discuss people that always predict horrible market crashes are coming and why it’s so unhelpful for investors. Then they talk through what the market fears (besides the normal stuff) at this point including profit margins and looming strikes. Why is economic data so confusing and if its broken. Finally, they go through the S&P 500 having the 11th best 1st half and compare this market cycle to the 2000 bear market.
Fear and market crash prediction do investors no good in the long run.
What does the best 1st half market years tell us about the rest of the year’s returns?
S&P 500 Index has the 11th best first half of a year.
Beyond inflation, what is left for the market to fear?
How profit margins may be the next thing to watch
The relationship between sales, margins, and earnings
The economic data is all over the place.
Leading economic indicators would seem to indicate recession, but other things are just fine.
PPI minus CPI plotted against GAAP earnings over past years.
What does PPI coming down greater than CPI tell us if anything?
Surprising that the Dow Jones DIA ETF has a higher total return than SPY since inception.
The number of workers on strike by year could hit some recent highs in 2023.
What would large numbers of workers striking mean for the economy?
Comparing 2000 bear market vs 2022 bear market
Mentioned in this Episode:
Does Inflation Matter? | Make More by Losing Less? | Volatility and Cost of Hedging | Someone Buys a lot of VIX Calls
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/does-inflation-matter-make-more-by-losing-less-volatility/id1432836154?i=1000621261669
Short Sellers Give Up? | The Case for Interest Rates to Stay High for Longer https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/short-sellers-give-up-the-case-for-interest-rates-to/id1432836154?i=1000620571083
Nasdaq 100 Index Strong First Half Equals Strong Second Half? | Overbought or not? | Trying to Guess the Forward PE Multiple Is Hard!https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nasdaq-100-index-strong-first-half-equals-strong-second/id1432836154?i=1000619186796
Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr
Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com
57 min