45 episodes

Discover tomorrow's Alpha Today. Listen to your favorite anonymous analyst discuss what matters in crypto, Web 3, and whatever else we can wrap our minds around on weekly basis.

xcgood.substack.com

xChanging’s Substack Podcast xChanging Good

    • Business
    • 5.0 • 1 Rating

Discover tomorrow's Alpha Today. Listen to your favorite anonymous analyst discuss what matters in crypto, Web 3, and whatever else we can wrap our minds around on weekly basis.

xcgood.substack.com

    36 Days to Bitcoin Halving - How to Play It

    36 Days to Bitcoin Halving - How to Play It

    Only 36 days to the Bitcoin Halving and JJ walks through his approach for playing it like a pro (if you own spot or don't).
    👉 Start Trading Options Today at Coincall: https://partner.coincall.com/jarvislabs
    But that's not the only topic catching fire this week.
    Crypto credit markets are the life blood of market makers keeping prices elevated or depressed. While some look at market depth to suggest credit has returned, the answer is more complicated and reflects a possible resilience that hasn't existed in crypto before. This could lead to a healthier rise over time.
    The markets continue to offer warning signs while ETF demand continues with rampant inflows. While historically the market has experienced a strong decline prior to Bitcoin's Halving, the introduction of ETF's means this time may rhyme but it is in fact different.
    But that doesn't mean it's bull time forever.
    The DXY continues to suggest uncertainty in the market. Whether it spikes up or down from here is unclear. But macro signals, such as higher inflation prints and a jobless numbers under expectations, continue to offer a mixed market view.
    Something to keep an eye on.
    The Ethereum Duncan upgrade and the market responded early on with a sell off. While the reduction in fees might be big news for ETH maxis, the market doesn't seem all that impressed. But that doesn't mean there aren't positions to be had.
    Have a listen and let us know what you think.
    Chapters:
    00:00:00 Rapid Fire
    00:03:27 The Bitcoin Halving Trade
    00:07:04 Crypto Credit Markets Returning
    00:11:53 Rules Changing the Lending Market
    00:14:40 Market Breakdown
    00:16:43 TradFI is Suppressing Bitcoin Price
    00:27:49 DXY and Possible Liquidity Drain
    00:32:30 BitFinex Selling - Wat Mean?
    00:35:43 Eth Duncan Upgrade + Coin Screener
    00:43:17 Options Positioning and Expensive Insurance
    00:48:00 Wat Meme Coin Mania Means
    👉 Start Trading Options Today at Coincall: https://partner.coincall.com/jarvislabs
    Contact Marconi for Sponsorships: marconiwightsocial@proton.me
    👉 Share your thoughts with the Crypto Enthusiast Survey https://bit.ly/XCGsurvey
    Follow the team:
    xChanging Good Studios https://bit.ly/xChangingGood
    Espresso Newsletter https://bit.ly/espressobrew
    On Twitter @Marconiwight @MrBenLilly @JlabsJanitor @Kodi_thekid @benjamin_skew
    Disclosure Statement
    This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments.


    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit xcgood.substack.com

    • 48 min
    Why Ethereum ETF Will Make Bitcoin Returns Look Small

    Why Ethereum ETF Will Make Bitcoin Returns Look Small

    Ethereum is building up steam for a massive supply shock brought by staking, the likely ETF, and factors mainstream aren't even discussing. In this episode, find out Why the Ethereum ETF Will Make Bitcoin Returns Look Small as the ETH's supply shock hits the markets.
    👉 Start Trading Options Today at Coincall: https://partner.coincall.com/jarvislabs
    Ethereum's narrative as "Ultra Sound Money" isn't new. But what if the puzzle that kicks this narrative into action is just now underway?
    On this episode of The Trading Pit, we unpack the supply and demand dynamics pushing ETH towards a supply shock that will cause price to explode. And on a risk adjusted basis, ETH might continue to be king kong of the jungle.
    Now is the time to prepare. But how about the rest of the rest of the market?
    After a weekend of Alt runs (#worldcoin , #ronin anyone?), the market is experiencing a bit of a sale off. Bitcoin spot continues to show consolidation as ETF flows have surprised everyone by their continued strength.
    Perpetuals and Options show large players are positioned for higher volatility without guessing which direction it might go (hint, hint the better play is to follow the trade, not your hopes and wishes).
    👉 Start Trading Options Today at Coincall: https://partner.coincall.com/jarvislabs
    DXY and rates aren't giving concrete signals at the moment and it continues to be a game of sitting on your hands. But that hasn't stopped the market from going down the risk curve. In the last week, mid-cap alts in the AI, Gaming and meme sectors have had strong runs. But don't just ape in. The Sharpe / Sortino ratios suggest caution as price runs ahead of demand.
    Now is the time to wait for an indication of where the market heads. Don't front run it.
    Don't apply leverage to a guess.
    Chapters
    00:00:00 ETH's Ready to Run
    00:03:40 Signs of ETH's Coming Supply Shock
    00:05:50 Market Update: Expect Consolidation
    00:07:34 Surprising Bitcoin ETF Flows
    00:16:30 The Recent Alt Rally
    00:19:20 Risk Adjusted Returns on Alt Coins
    00:23:28 Pros Don't Care if BTC hits 70K by June
    00:27:57 DXY and the Liquidity Armageddon
    00:35:25 Positioning in This Market
    00:42:50 Options vs Perpetuals
    Contact Marconi for Sponsorships:marconiwightsocial@proton.me
    👉 Start Trading Options Today at Coincall: https://partner.coincall.com/jarvislabs
    👉 Share your thoughts with the Crypto Enthusiast Survey https://bit.ly/XCGsurvey
    Follow the team:
    xChanging Good Studios https://bit.ly/xChangingGood Espresso Newsletter https://bit.ly/espressobrew
    On Twitter @Marconiwight @MrBenLilly @JlabsJanitor @Kodi_thekid @benjamin_skew
    Disclosure Statement
    This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments.


    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit xcgood.substack.com

    • 49 min
    Why No One's Selling Bitcoin at this Price

    Why No One's Selling Bitcoin at this Price

    Bitcoin sores above $52K and Wall Street ETF's are struggling to get their hands on #BTC because no one wants to sell Bitcoin, even at these prices. When will that change?
    And when will Retail return.
    👉 Start Trading Options Today at Coincall: https://partner.coincall.com/jarvislabs
    Despite retail crypto giants like Robinhood and Coinbase experience revenue growth, retail participation remains muted. Investors burned by scams and pump and dump ponzis need a higher price to reignite the flames of speculation. And it's unclear if $50K or Bitcoin passing the previous ATH is what will shift the market.
    But the battle hardened retail still here aren't selling or taking profits.
    In fact, the only people looking to sell are Genesis to pay off debts. But even $1.3 B in supply is no match for the hungry, hungry ETF hippos. If the existing pace continues, they will buy up that supply in a week or so. ETF's buy at any price. It's a one way machine - buy, buy, buy.
    And there is no indication that they are slowing down. None.
    And until the ETF Options market opens up (still in pending approval), expect more action to the upside.
    Back to Bitcoin.
    Price action remains bullish. And despite Bitcoin climbing into the RSI Red Zone, there are few signs this momentum will fade. And options suggest there is more upside to be found, with calls being sold for $60K and higher.
    Will we see vol sellers get burned? Time will tell.
    Remember, there is no Bitcoin. No one is selling (Bitcoin Supply Shock?). And this is creating supply shock that propels prices higher. ETF's will struggle to get their hands on more Bitcoin as the shock intensities.
    Don't be fooled by perpetual liquidations of shorts. While retail use these products for outsized gains, sophisticated traders are using them to run a cash and carry trade, hedging the downside risk. Traders can still be profitable with their shorts getting stopped out.
    Returning to TradFi markets, DXY remains elevated but the risk seems low of a near-term market shakeout. Don't sleep on what the dollar might mean for a sell-off. Importantly, it's also a risk-on sign if it falls below $100.
    But the DXY isn't the only detail to watch on TradFI.
    New guidance allows new dealers to participate in treasury auctions, expanding the number of buyers. And demand for treasuries remains strong. Now the market is dropping expectations for rate hikes and adjusting to "higher for longer". Or at least "elevated for a while".
    That doesn't mean there aren't opportunities. The CoinCall Options Trade continues to perform and there is a liquidity play that needs to be on the radar of all sophisticated traders.
    Listen up.
    Chapters:
    00:00:00 - At What Price Does Retail Return?
    00:05:50 - Court Clears Sale of $1.3 B GBTC
    00:08:22 - When Will ETF Volume Trail Off
    00:12:42 - Bitcoin Spot, Perps, and Options All Bullish
    00:20:02 - No One is Selling Until This Happens
    00:28:00 - Bitcoin Perpetuals Hedging the Downside
    00:31:30 - DXY, Yields and More
    00:43:25 - The CoinCall Options Trade
    00:47:07 - The Liquidity End Game Play
    Contact Marconi for Sponsorships: marconiwightsocial@proton.me
    👉 Start Trading Options Today at Coincall: https://partner.coincall.com/jarvislabs
    👉 Share your thoughts with the Crypto Enthusiast Survey https://bit.ly/XCGsurvey
    Follow the team:
    xChanging Good Studios https://bit.ly/xChangingGood
    Espresso Newsletter https://bit.ly/espressobrew
    On Twitter @Marconiwight @MrBenLilly @JlabsJanitor @horushughes @Kodi_thekid @benjamin_skew ---
    Disclosure Statement
    This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments.


    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit xcgood.subst

    • 58 min
    ATTENTION: $70K Bitcoin by June 2024 (Why it Matters)

    ATTENTION: $70K Bitcoin by June 2024 (Why it Matters)

    Bitcoin breaks above $50K for the first time since 2022 and suddenly the market is betting on Bitcoin at $70K by June 2024. Should YOU bet on it? (From the Trading Pit Live Stream Recorded on 2/13)
    👉 Start Trading Options Today at Coincall: https://partner.coincall.com/jarvislabs
    In the last few days, Bitcoin shot above $50K and the market updated their expectations, with OTM calls being purchased all the way to $70K, expiring in June. If these positions are unhedged and the market catapults to those levels, expect ATH very, very soon.
    But that's a big if...
    Fortunately, ETF demand is stronger than anyone anticipated, with all dips turning into buy opportunities. And until ETF volume dies down, don't expect a local top for Bitcoin.
    But don't forge to check your macro stats.
    Today, the CPI print came in hotter than expected, forcing many to rethink how quickly the fed can pivot from "higher for longer". And this might just lead to a strong dollar. Already above $104, a hot CPI print and longer tight policy could squeeze the dollar even higher, sucking liquidity out of risk assets, like Bitcoin.
    For now the likelihood is low. But you need to keep an eye on it.
    Back to Bitcoin.
    The spot market continues to show fresh inflow buying up Bitcoin while the perpetuals market suggest the carry trade is in full effect (buying spot and hedging with short futures). Now is a challenging time to enter new trades, unless you want to try Options (hint, hint, the CoinCall Degen trade is a winner).
    Finally, Ethereum remains the beta to Bitcoin. What's the beta to Ethereum? Every coin on the market that isn't Ethereum. And speculators continue to double down on higher risk assets, expecting a 10x or more during this bear cycle.
    Will they be wrong? Stay tuned and find out.
    Contact Marconi for Sponsorships: marconiwightsocial@proton.me
    👉 Start Trading Options Today at Coincall: https://partner.coincall.com/jarvislabs
    👉 Share your thoughts with the Crypto Enthusiast Survey https://bit.ly/XCGsurvey
    Follow the team:
    xChanging Good Studios https://bit.ly/xChangingGood
    Espresso Newsletter https://bit.ly/espressobrew
    On Twitter @Marconiwight @MrBenLilly @JlabsJanitor @horushughes @Kodi_thekid @benjamin_skew ---
    Disclosure Statement
    This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments.


    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit xcgood.substack.com

    • 49 min
    Massive Bitcoin ETF News (You Aren't Bullish Enough)

    Massive Bitcoin ETF News (You Aren't Bullish Enough)

    The BlackRock Bitcoin ETF IBIT just secured the Top 5 spot for inflows in 2024. Believe us, you're not bullish enough Anon. (NOTE: there were some audio issues at the beginning of the recording. We are working to resolve these for future shows). (from the Live Trading Pit episode recorded 2/8/24)
    👉 Start Trading Options Today at Coincall: https://partner.coincall.com/jarvislabs
    the story...
    Options suggest upcoming volatility (up only???)
    Spot is being vacuumed up hungry whales
    Futures are being sold for hedging long positions
    And that's just Bitcoin.
    In this discussion, we unpack the options activity preparing for volatility as the ETH ETF decision approaches and how sophisticated traders will approach it (ETHE, long options contracts, beta plays). TL:DW, beta plays are interesting but the best play might just be using pristine collateral (ETH) to trade perps to juice your returns.
    Benjamin still expects a liquidity event. But he's had to admit, now is the time to "be long until your wrong".
    Chapters:
    00:00:00 WOW - Bitcoin ETF Top 5 ETF
    00:04:09 ETH ETF COMING May 2024
    00:10:56 Learn to Trade Options
    00:13:26 Bitcoin: All Signs are Bullish
    00:23:35 DXY Is a Risk (But Don't Run Just Yet)
    00:29:01 Should You Buy ETH Beta for the ETF Launch?
    00:33:24 Max out Your Beta
    00:36:05 Sophisticated Portfolio Construction
    Contact Marconi for Sponsorships: marconiwightsocial@proton.me
    👉 Start Trading Options Today at Coincall: https://partner.coincall.com/jarvislabs
    👉 Share your thoughts with the Crypto Enthusiast Survey https://bit.ly/XCGsurvey
    Follow the team:
    xChanging Good Studios
    https://bit.ly/xChangingGood
    Espresso Newsletter https://bit.ly/espressobrew
    On Twitter @Marconiwight @MrBenLilly @JlabsJanitor @horushughes @Kodi_thekid @benjamin_skew ---
    Disclosure Statement
    This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments.


    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit xcgood.substack.com

    • 44 min
    BREAKING: Solana Network Goes Down (Again)

    BREAKING: Solana Network Goes Down (Again)

    On the latest episode of The Trading Pit, The Solana Network Goes Down (Again) and were noticing all the red flags buyers need to notice before buying the dip.
    But first, Solana isn't the only news event.
    👉Enjoy the show and looking for ways to support it? Consider trading on CoinCall and use the link here to open an account. https://partner.coincall.com/jarvislabs
    Genesis, the former crypto lender, is looking to offload $1.6 Billion in GBTC ETF shares, adding more sell pressure. When will GBTC finally stabilize it's flows?
    Markets continue to take the slow walk towards bull town, with spot, perpetuals, and options all suggesting range trading for the near-term. Volatility is being suppressed like a beach ball under water, and market makers are happy with the carry trade to squeeze out additional yield in a slow market.
    But markets don't stay quiet for long. And king kong dollar looks ready to rekt a quiet market. As DXY closes above $104, risk increases of a dollar run that would cause a risk-off tsunami through bitcoin and the rest of the crypto markets. And with headline jobs and growth numbers looking iron man strong, the Fed has little reason to cut rates and inject fresh liquidity. Will the liquidity armageddon finally arrive?
    Back to Solana.
    Even in bear market congestion, the Solana network goes down. Is Solana ready for the big time if it's can't handle these volumes? But that's not the real concern. A price chart primed for capitulation and unresolved questions about supply are more reasons to be cautious on this trade. It's anything but a sure bet.
    Finally, the Degen Trade of the week is finally in the red. It should have been closed out a week ago. But it's invaluable learning, right? ("ain't no gains without some pains").
    Is it too early to start trading the Halving?
    👉Enjoy the show and looking for ways to support it? Consider trading on CoinCall and use the link here to open an account. https://partner.coincall.com/jarvislabs
    Chapters:
    00:00:00 Genesis Prepares to Dump $1.6 Billion GBTC
    00:02:51 Bitcoin Continues to Range as Spot, Perpetuals Weak
    00:07:55 Patience, the Market Sell Off is Coming
    00:10:47 Bitcoin Vol Remains Low (No Impulse Yet)
    00:15:00 Options Markets Signal Indifference
    00:18:59 DXY Crosses $104 But No Sell Off. Yet.
    00:22:01 Rates Following DXY
    00:28:37 How Fed and Treasury Respond to Election Year
    00:33:37 Solana Losing Momentum As Network Fails
    00:35:30 Don't Rush to Buy the Solana Dip
    00:42:35 Trading Ideas
    👉 Share your thoughts with the Crypto Enthusiast Survey https://bit.ly/XCGsurvey
    Follow the team:
    xChanging Good Studios https://bit.ly/xChangingGood
    Espresso Newsletter https://bit.ly/espressobrew
    On Twitter
    @Marconiwight @MrBenLilly @JlabsJanitor @horushughes @Kodi_thekid @benjamin_skew
    Disclosure Statement
    This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments.


    This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit xcgood.substack.com

    • 48 min

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