Macro Bytes abrdn

The snap UK general election on July 4th is very likely to result in a Labour government. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew talk to Lizzy Galbraith about what this might mean for the economy – from fiscal policy and planning reform, to green industrial policy and the approach to the EU.

The US dollar is different to every other currency. The dollar is the global reserve asset, and its dominant status means dollar strength has important global spillovers. Paul and Luke discuss why the dollar has been appreciating recently, why this matters, how the dollar became so important, the benefits and drawbacks this brings to the US, and why a potential second Trump presidency could drop the US’s long standing commitment to a strong dollar.

The traditional trade engine of globalisation has stalled or is even heading into reverse. But the globalisation of information, capital and people is still powering on. Nevertheless, even these aspects of globalisation are facing an increasingly hostile political and policy environment, including a potential Trump Presidency and ongoing US-China tensions. Paul Diggle speaks to James McCann about the nature of “globalisation 3.0”, and what it means for the economic outlook and financial marke...

The global macroeconomic and geopolitical environment is filled with risks around inflation, interest rates, and instability in the Middle East. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss how scenario analysis can help investors to navigate uncertainty. They also consider the Bernanke review of the Bank of England’s forecasting process, which includes a recommendation to make greater use of scenarios.

The Bank of Japan has taken the historic step of ending negative interest rates and may hike further. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve seems to be approaching rate cuts, but an economic “no landing” could delay this. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew speak to Sree Kochugovindan and James McCann about the outlook for monetary policy in Japan and the US.

The ‘great inflation’ saw not only price growth, but also inflation volatility, spike higher. And even as inflation itself has fallen back more recently, inflation volatility has remained elevated. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss why structural changes in the global economy, stalling globalisation, geopolitical fragmentation, and climate change may all mean that higher inflation volatility is here to stay – and why this would have significant implications for financial markets and po...