Podcast Notes Playlist: Latest Episodes Podcast Notes

rational vc



Key Takeaways  People often underestimate the role of chance in their achievementsMild success can be explainable by skill, but wild success is attributable to variance In the long run, the “lucky” regress to the mean Understand Power Laws when investing; the wins of a few investments make up for the losses on many investments, and then some Survivorship Bias: the tendency to focus on successful individuals without considering those who failed due to random factors The probability of the loss must be judged in connection with the magnitude of the outcome; it is not the likelihood of an event that matters, but the magnitude of the outcome in connection with the likelihood of the event that does  Maximizing the probability of winning does not maximize the expected value from the game The confidence in which you make your decision is more important than the expected value that comes from that decision A mistake is not something to be determined after the fact, but in the light of the information until that point Read the full notes @ podcastnotes.orgEvery podcast episode we explore a Lindy book, and find ideas you can use in business and life. Join 3,000+ curious minds and avid readers @ rationalvc.com to get free access to essays and exclusive content. For the video version of episode click here.
 
Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro / chit-chat
(20:11) Randomness & Luck
(24:46) Monte Carlo Simulation
(31:09) Ergodicity
(31:39) Hindsight Bias
(38:00) Survivorship Bias
(39:50) Asymmetric Bets / John & Nero
(49:53) Skewness & Asymmetry
(57:19) Pascal's Wager
(1:00:53) Induction & Chaos Theory
(1:03:22) Chapter 11
(1:08:45) System-1 vs System-2 Thinking
(1:10:03) Satisficing
(1:20:08) Normative vs Positive Thinking
(1:25:52) Signal vs Noise
(1:28:20) Heuristics
(1:33:45) Final Part of Book (Part 3's Importance)
(1:44:41) Favourite Quotes / Our Lives
(2:06:11) Final Thoughts
-
Our website (all essays and podcasts): rationalvc.com 
Our investment fund: rational.fund 
Cyrus' Twitter: x.com/CyrusYari 
Iman's Twitter: x.com/iman_olya
-
 
Disclaimer: The materials provided are solely for informational or entertainment purposes and do not constitute investment or legal advice. All opinions expressed by hosts and guests are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of their employer(s).

#Lindy #knowledge #books

Episode 578: Shaan Puri ( https://twitter.com/ShaanVP ) sits down with Joe Lonsdale ( https://twitter.com/JTLonsdale ) to talk about how he leveraged one internship at PayPal into one billion dollar success after another. 

Want to see Sam and Shaan’s smiling faces? Head to the MFM YouTube Channel and subscribe - http://tinyurl.com/5n7ftsy5
—
Show Notes:
(0:00) The One Reason strategy
(3:18) Learning Global Macro Finance from Peter Thiel
(5:35) Taking multi-million dollar bets at 4:30am
(8:43) Hire for raw IQ over expertise
(10:33) Nurturing employees into unicorn founders
(12:24) Solving hard problems with Addepar
(13:53) Always “Being on”
(15:32) How to spot opportunities for new businesses
(21:10) How Epirus landed a military defense contract
(27:09) Getting hits in hard domains
(28:24) Business Idea: AI-powered Estate Planning
(29:19) Business Idea: Business Process Outsourcing for local government
(30:58) Big swings vs. base hits
(31:49) Idea vs. execution
(32:38) Focus vs. diversity of thought/attention
(33:33) Insights from Elon’s inner circle
(35:36) Joe Lonsdale’s unfair advantages
(38:48) How to invest your time to make your first $1M
(40:40) Working on an A+ problem as an intern at PayPal
(43:15) Be within 2 standard deviations of top talent
(44:14) Early days at Palantir
(46:56) Building a top engineering culture
(48:31) Borrowing trust as 21-year old defense contractor
(52:22) Peter Thiel’s biggest contrarian bet


—
Links:
• Joe's Twitter - https://twitter.com/JTLonsdale
• Joe's blog - https://blog.joelonsdale.com/
• Addepar - https://addepar.com/ 
• Palantir - https://www.palantir.com/
• Epirus- https://www.epirusinc.com/
• OpenGov - https://opengov.com/
• Prologis - https://www.prologis.com/
• Lessons from Peter Thiel - https://joelonsdale.com/lessons-peter-thiel/



—
Check Out Shaan's Stuff:
Need to hire? You should use the same service Shaan uses to hire developers, designers, & Virtual Assistants → it’s called Shepherd (tell ‘em Shaan sent you): https://bit.ly/SupportShepherd

—
Check Out Sam's Stuff:
• Hampton - https://www.joinhampton.com/
• Ideation Bootcamp - https://www.ideationbootcamp.co/
• Copy That - https://copythat.com
• Hampton Wealth Survey - https://joinhampton.com/wealth



My First Million is a HubSpot Original Podcast // Brought to you by The HubSpot Podcast Network // Production by Arie Desormeaux // Editing by Ezra Bakker Trupiano


Past guests on My First Million include Rob Dyrdek, Hasan Minhaj, Balaji Srinivasan, Jake Paul, Dr. Andrew Huberman, Gary Vee, Lance Armstrong, Sophia Amoruso, Ariel Helwani, Ramit Sethi, Stanley Druckenmiller, Peter Diamandis, Dharmesh Shah, Brian Halligan, Marc Lore, Jason Calacanis, Andrew Wilkinson, Julian Shapiro, Kat Cole, Codie Sanchez, Nader Al-Naji, Steph Smith, Trung Phan, Nick Huber, Anthony Pompliano, Ben Askren, Ramon Van Meer, Brianne Kimmel, Andrew Gazdecki, Scott Belsky, Moiz Ali, Dan Held, Elaine Zelby, Michael Saylor, Ryan Begelman, Jack Butcher, Reed Duchscher, Tai Lopez, Harley Finkelstein, Alexa von Tobel, Noah Kagan, Nick Bare, Greg Isenberg, James Altucher, Randy Hetrick and more.
—
Other episodes you might enjoy:
• #224 Rob Dyrdek - How Tracking Every Second of His Life Took Rob Drydek from 0 to $405M in Exits

• #209 Gary Vaynerchuk - Why NFTS Are the Future

• #178 Balaji Srinivasan - Balaji on How to Fix the Media, Cloud Cities & Crypto

• #169 - How One Man Started 5, Billion Dollar Companies, Dan Gilbert's Empire, & Talking With Warren Buffett

• ​​​​#218 - Why You Should Take a Think Week Like Bill Gates

• Dave Portnoy vs The World, Extreme Body Monitoring, The Future of Apparel Retail, "How Much is Anthony Pompliano Worth?", and More

• How Mr Beast Got 100M Views in Less Than 4 Days, The $25M Chrome Extension, and More

This week, I am joined by Scott Galloway, NYU professor, best-selling author, serial entrepreneur, and podcaster, to discuss the multifaceted challenges many young men face today. He underscores the lack of empathy and understanding many experience, attributing it to societal expectations and the impact of technology. Scott emphasizes the winner-take-most economy, which limits opportunities for many young men. Drawing from personal understanding, he stresses the importance of education, support, and the presence of positive male role models. The discussion encompasses economic challenges, the decline of mentorship programs, and the need for reform in higher education institutions. Addressing societal constructs of masculinity and the importance of vulnerability and integrity, Scott advocates embracing emotions and seeking help to navigate life’s hurdles. He stands apart as a model of healthy, grounded masculinity—one defined by humility, emotional intelligence, and a commitment to uplifting the collective rather than indulging narrow self-interest.

Enjoy!

Show notes + MORE
Watch on YouTube
Newsletter Sign-Up

Today’s Sponsors:
Eight Sleep: Intelligent cooling and heating for any bed 👉EightSleep.com/RICHROLL
On: Use code RichRoll10 at the checkout to get 10% OFF your first order of high-performance shoes and apparel 👉on.com/richroll 
Momentous: Save up to 36% OFF your first subscription order of Protein or Creatine, along with 20% OFF my favorite products 👉livemomentous.com/richroll 
Peak Design: 20% OFF thoughtfully crafted, best-in-class backpacks, duffels, & more 👉PeakDesign.com/RICHROLL
Bon Charge: Use code RICHROLL to save 15% OFF my favorite wellness products 👉boncharge.com 

My guests today are Bill Gurley and Michael Mauboussin. Bill is a General Partner at Benchmark, and Michael is the Head of Consilient Research for Counterpoint Global. While they are longtime friends with one another, I’d never heard them appear somewhere together so it was a real treat to be able to do this with the two of them. They are two of the leading minds in their fields, and we combined their decades of expertise into one wide-ranging conversation. We discuss the different kinds of increasing returns to scale, the issue of regulatory capture, AI, and hardware. Please enjoy this great conversation with Bill Gurley and Michael Mauboussin.

Listen to Founders Podcast
For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here.
-----
This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the only investment research platform built for the investor. With traditional research vendors, the diligence process is slow, fragmented, and expensive. That leaves investors competing on how well they can aggregate data — not on their unique ability to analyze insights and make great investment decisions. Tegus offers an end-to-end platform with all the data you need to get up to speed on a company or market: up-to-the-minute financials, customizable models, management and culture checks, and, of course, our vast and growing library of expert call transcripts. Tegus is changing the world of expert research. Learn more and get your free trial at tegus.com/patrick.
-----
Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes. 
Past guests include Tobi Lutke, Kevin Systrom, Mike Krieger, John Collison, Kat Cole, Marc Andreessen, Matthew Ball, Bill Gurley, Anu Hariharan, Ben Thompson, and many more.
Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here.
Follow us on Twitter: @patrick_oshag | @JoinColossus
Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com).

Show Notes:
(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like the Best
(00:03:38) Dissecting the Dynamics of AI, LLMs, and Market Disruption
(00:05:06) The World of AI Investments and Market Trends
(00:08:13) Integration of New Technologies in Business
(00:15:27) The Power of Increasing Returns and Strategic Investments
(00:22:26) Unpacking the Role of Intangibles in Scaling and Innovation
(00:28:54) Transformative Potential of Open Source and Idea Recombination
(00:34:42) The Complex Landscape of Regulation and Innovation
(00:43:17) Today’s Venture Capital Ecosystem
(00:47:08) Impact of Fewer IPOs and Private Market Dynamics
(00:50:38) Capital Allocation in Zero Interest Rate Environments
(00:54:44) The Evolution of Venture Capital and High-Stakes Investment Games
(00:57:21) Exploring New Frontiers: AI, Energy, and Physical World Innovations
(01:01:14) The Power of Learning by Doing
(01:17:49) Working with Genius
(01:26:47) The Value of Teaching, Writing, and Sharing Knowledge

Golden Harper is a lifelong runner and the founder of Altra Running Shoes. He ran his first marathon at age 10 (3:08:05) and holds the world’s best for a 12-year-old in the marathon at 2:45:34. After growing up working in his family’s running store, he studied Exercise Science (with a focus on running technique & running injuries) at Brigham Young University, where he was an All-American Cross-Country runner. His experience as a runner, combined with his education in proper running technique and biomechanics, led him to develop the world’s first foot-shaped, cushioned, zero-drop shoes. 

------
Thank you to the sponsors that fuel our podcast and our team:

LMNT Electrolytes
https://drinklmnt.com/tetra
------
Squarespace
https://squarespace.com/tetra
------
House of Macadamias
https://www.houseofmacadamias.com/tetra

In this episode, recorded during the 2024 Abundance360 Summit, Ray, Geoffrey, and Peter debate whether AI will become sentient, what consciousness constitutes, and if AI should have rights.


01:12 | The Future of AI and Humanity

10:30 | The Ethics of Artificial Intelligence

25:00 |The Dangers and Possibilities of AI


Ray Kurzweil, an American inventor and futurist, is a pioneer in artificial intelligence. He has contributed significantly to OCR, text-to-speech, and speech recognition technologies. He is the author of numerous books on AI and the future of technology and has received the National Medal of Technology and Innovation, among other honors. At Google, Kurzweil focuses on machine learning and language processing, driving advancements in technology and human potential.

Geoffrey Hinton, often referred to as the "godfather of deep learning," is a British-Canadian cognitive psychologist and computer scientist recognized for his pioneering work in artificial neural networks. His research on neural networks, deep learning, and machine learning has significantly impacted the development of algorithms that can perform complex tasks such as image and speech recognition.

Read Ray’s latest book, The Singularity Is Nearer: When We Merge with AI

Follow Geoffrey on X: https://twitter.com/geoffreyhinton 

Learn more about Abundance360: https://www.abundance360.com/summit 
____________
I only endorse products and services I personally use. To see what they are, please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: 

Get started with Fountain Life and become the CEO of your health: https://fountainlife.com/peter/
 
AI-powered precision diagnosis you NEED for a healthy gut: https://www.viome.com/peter 

_____________
I send weekly emails with the latest insights and trends on today’s and tomorrow’s exponential technologies. Stay ahead of the curve, and sign up now: Tech Blog

Get my new Longevity Practices book: https://www.diamandis.com/longevity

My new book with Salim Ismail, Exponential Organizations 2.0: The New Playbook for 10x Growth and Impact, is now available on Amazon: https://bit.ly/3P3j54J
_____________
Connect With Peter:
Twitter
Instagram
Youtube
Moonshots
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices