Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo

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Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo

  1. 3 days ago

    South Africa’s farm jobs fell mildly from the first quarter but remained at a decent level

    Employment conditions in the South African farming sector remain robust, well above long-term average levels. And this is an important issue to emphasise, as I have noted recently, as headlines suggest that farmers are struggling to find workers in this sector since the intensification of the immigration discourse in South Africa. Indeed, if one looks at the data, in the second quarter of 2026, the farming sector saw a mild decline in employment. But this is broadly aligned with slowing seasonal farm activity, not necessarily other issues. Still, the number of jobs remained at reasonably better levels. For example, the Quarterly Labour Force Survey for the second quarter of 2026, released on 11 August 2026 by Statistics South Africa, shows that the farming sector employed 944k people in the second quarter, down 2% quarter-on-quarter. But this is up by 4% from the same period last year, and well above the average of 799k jobs in this sector. If we zoom in from a provincial perspective, most provinces experienced a mild employment decline from the first quarter of the year, except for the Northern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng, and Limpopo. The annual uptick in employment (up 4% year-on-year) shows that we are generally in a year of agricultural abundance in fruits, vegetables, and various field crops, all of which are labour-intensive. Listen to the podcast for more. Wandile Sihlobo website

  2. 9 Jul

    Renewed strikes in the Middle East present risks to farming input costs

    On July 6, 206, I flagged in a note to the South African agribusinesses that we are beginning to see the benefits of the likely memorandum of understanding between Iran and the U.S. aimed at ending the war on agricultural input prices. Fertiliser and fuel prices have declined notably from the levels we saw as recently as May 2026. That said, uncertainty remains, and it increasingly appears that the talks may end or be paused without a deal given the renewed strikes in the region. This once again presents the immense risk and uncertainty surrounding ship movements in the Strait of Hormuz. Over the past few weeks, as the peace talks were progressing in a promising direction, we saw the benefits in the relief for fertiliser and fuel prices. The recent strikes introduce new risks to the likelihood of affordable fertiliser and fuel prices going forward, particularly if we see yet another holdup on ship movements in the region. There is considerable uncertainty now about how the neighbouring countries would react to these recent developments. From a South African perspective, we remain concerned that as the start of the 2026-27 season nears, the fuel and fertiliser prices mustn’t see another surge. South Africa is roughly three months away from the start of the 2026-27 summer crop season in mid-October 2026. Farmers typically place input orders well before the start of the season. Still, given that the current 2025-26 summer crop season is over a month late and maize harvest is still underway, the placement of input orders for the next season may also be slightly delayed. The combined cost of fuel and fertiliser typically accounts for around half of the input costs in field crops. Thus, we worry about the renewed war action, which presents risks to input prices. Having such a substantial share of input costs rising at a time when commodity prices were falling meant that some farmers would be in a tough financial corner. Already, the possibility of financial pressures led some people to question whether South African farmers would leave some land fallow for a season. Listen to the podcast for more. Wandile Sihlobo website

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Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo

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