58 min
Christopher Aaron: We are Experiencing Precious Metals History Palisades Gold Radio
-
- Investing
Tom welcomes back to the show, Christopher Aaron to discuss the markets and current geopolitical instability. Although gold prices saw a spike due to recent events between Iran and Israel, they gave back most of the gains shortly after. Christopher emphasizes the importance of considering historical data and long-term trends when analyzing gold price movements.
Chris discusses how the Dow Jones and gold have been trading in lockstep due to the preoccupation with Fed policy. They note that during past bull markets, average investors shifted funds from stock indexes into gold or silver when they underperformed. However, the current cycle shows a flat Dow to gold ratio for the last eight years, suggesting mainstream investors are yet to enter the precious metals sector. The potential implications of this situation and its impact on future market performance are emphasized.
Despite gold ETFs losing gold holdings as mainstream investors sell their shares even during price surges, they predict gold should come back to retest its recent highs before experiencing a multi-year trend of significant new highs. Christopher shares his insights from the 2008 financial crisis and how he now prioritizes price data over fundamental analysis. They also touch upon historical gold price trends, including how gold always retests breakout points after significant price increases.
Christopher discusses the potential catalyst for the Federal Reserve to shift from its hawkish stance being a global or regional war. He suggests that higher interest rates may lead to higher commodity prices and emphasizes the need for markets to reconsider their current beliefs. The conversation then shifts to silver, which has broken its downward trend but faces significant resistance at $30 per ounce. Christopher is skeptical about silver's potential return as a full-time monetary metal in perpetuity but acknowledges the possibility during periods of financial instability.
Chris emphasizes the importance of being aware and prepared amidst current turbulent times while also encouraging listeners not to stop living their lives.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:00 - Geopolitical Tensions4:37 - Sentiment & ATH Gold9:15 - Dow Vs. Gold12:00 - Dow Gold Ratio15:52 - Opportunity?18:20 - Breakouts & Retests23:14 - Fundamentals & China27:00 - Catalysts & Israel32:50 - Inflation Narratives38:30 - Fed Shift?40:33 - Silver & Resistance44:45 - Monetary Silver?45:54 - Miners & Resources51:16 - Jurisdictional Risks55:57 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
* Importance of historical data for analyzing gold price movements amid current geopolitical instability; Gold ETFs losing holdings despite recent surges
* Markets ignoring fundamental supply and demand in favor of Fed policy and the potential return of mainstream investors to precious metals sector.
* Predicting gold retesting highs before significant new price trends.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/iGlobalGoldWebsite: https://igoldadvisor.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCjG_4Kg7ZWWs8o7EnfnDc9Q
Christopher Aaron is Senior Editor for the precious metals investment portal Gold Eagle.
A former counter-terrorism officer for the CIA and Department of Defense, Christopher has always had an independent analytical outlook. He volunteered to serve two tours to Iraq and Afghanistan from 2006 - 2009, conducting pattern analysis and mapping for the US Intelligence Community in Washington...
Tom welcomes back to the show, Christopher Aaron to discuss the markets and current geopolitical instability. Although gold prices saw a spike due to recent events between Iran and Israel, they gave back most of the gains shortly after. Christopher emphasizes the importance of considering historical data and long-term trends when analyzing gold price movements.
Chris discusses how the Dow Jones and gold have been trading in lockstep due to the preoccupation with Fed policy. They note that during past bull markets, average investors shifted funds from stock indexes into gold or silver when they underperformed. However, the current cycle shows a flat Dow to gold ratio for the last eight years, suggesting mainstream investors are yet to enter the precious metals sector. The potential implications of this situation and its impact on future market performance are emphasized.
Despite gold ETFs losing gold holdings as mainstream investors sell their shares even during price surges, they predict gold should come back to retest its recent highs before experiencing a multi-year trend of significant new highs. Christopher shares his insights from the 2008 financial crisis and how he now prioritizes price data over fundamental analysis. They also touch upon historical gold price trends, including how gold always retests breakout points after significant price increases.
Christopher discusses the potential catalyst for the Federal Reserve to shift from its hawkish stance being a global or regional war. He suggests that higher interest rates may lead to higher commodity prices and emphasizes the need for markets to reconsider their current beliefs. The conversation then shifts to silver, which has broken its downward trend but faces significant resistance at $30 per ounce. Christopher is skeptical about silver's potential return as a full-time monetary metal in perpetuity but acknowledges the possibility during periods of financial instability.
Chris emphasizes the importance of being aware and prepared amidst current turbulent times while also encouraging listeners not to stop living their lives.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:00 - Geopolitical Tensions4:37 - Sentiment & ATH Gold9:15 - Dow Vs. Gold12:00 - Dow Gold Ratio15:52 - Opportunity?18:20 - Breakouts & Retests23:14 - Fundamentals & China27:00 - Catalysts & Israel32:50 - Inflation Narratives38:30 - Fed Shift?40:33 - Silver & Resistance44:45 - Monetary Silver?45:54 - Miners & Resources51:16 - Jurisdictional Risks55:57 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
* Importance of historical data for analyzing gold price movements amid current geopolitical instability; Gold ETFs losing holdings despite recent surges
* Markets ignoring fundamental supply and demand in favor of Fed policy and the potential return of mainstream investors to precious metals sector.
* Predicting gold retesting highs before significant new price trends.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/iGlobalGoldWebsite: https://igoldadvisor.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCjG_4Kg7ZWWs8o7EnfnDc9Q
Christopher Aaron is Senior Editor for the precious metals investment portal Gold Eagle.
A former counter-terrorism officer for the CIA and Department of Defense, Christopher has always had an independent analytical outlook. He volunteered to serve two tours to Iraq and Afghanistan from 2006 - 2009, conducting pattern analysis and mapping for the US Intelligence Community in Washington...
58 min