#GetNuanced with TJC Thomas J. Ciotola

History never repeats itself, but all too often it rhymes and in the case of geopolitics, especially those pertaining to the ongoing disposition of the Middle East region —the particular sentiment of this adage roars from the theoretical world into the practical manifestation of mankind's darkest inclinations: yet another war. And this new war is part of a broader, decades-long territorial dispute between the State of Israel and Palestine, respectively.

The conflict also so happens to coincide with the 50th anniversary of the 1973 Yom Kippur War and just like that fateful conflict in the 1970s, it is part of a broader historical context (i.e. the Cold War of the 20th century and the newfound, arguably "Second Cold War" of the 21st century) and will have a reverberating impact felt by not just those immediately engaged and currently participating in the street-to-street fighting, but also the broader international community and that especially pertains to the nations such as America, Russia, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, China, and other regional powers.

It is in this particularly tense backdrop of affairs that Hamas (the Palestinian militant organization that exercises de-facto governance of the coastal Gaza Strip enclave) just today (October 7th, 2023) launched a stunning, surprise assault with its paramilitary groups against Israel proper which was able to pierce through the much vaunted defensive fortifications on the border and strike virtually unopposed as the IDF (Israeli Defense Forces) were
initially caught completely off guard in what will be in retrospect among the most humiliating national security debacles in Israel's recent history.

In response to these developments, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu formally declared war on Hamas via a publicly broadcasted statement regarding the crisis and vowed swift, decisive retaliation as reports continue to pour in claiming that hundreds of causalities have been suffered so far on both sides. This also includes a significant number of Israeli civilians and military personnel alike who have been reportedly kidnapped by Hamas and trafficked into Gaza with the intention of the latter to use the former as bargaining chips in a potential prisoner swap. Please keep in mind that this is still an ongoing conflict and will definitely be revisited in between the content backlog which has long been overdue but is finally in the process of being ready!



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Correction: It was Yitzhak Rabin, not Ariel Sharon who was the aforementioned PM of Israel who was assassinated in the 1990s.



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Recommended Resources:



Read the article by AP that I originally cited in this segment: https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-gaza-hamas-rockets-airstrikes-tel-aviv-11fb98655c256d54ecb5329284fc37d2



Watch the video version of this segment on YT: https://youtu.be/-k9XSZMGuNE



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Previous segments covering similar interrelated issues:



My first video on the Israel vs. Palestine political dispute: https://youtu.be/x5FaFv6Juk8 | 2020 Edition


A follow up podcast segment in lieu of further relevant developments: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/getnuanced/episodes/Understanding-the-2021-IsraelPalestine-Crisis-and-its-Broader-Historic-Context-as-of-05-21-21-e1338lv | 2021 Edition



My thoughts on the Israeli Judicial Review crisis: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/getnuanced/episodes/Israeli-Prime-Minister-Benjamin-Bibi-Netanyahu-Pulls-an-Erdogan-in-the-High-Court-of-Israel-and-IGNITES-a-MASSIVE-Judicial-Review-CRISIS--JULY-2023-e27e5ac | JULY 2023 Edition


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—Tom




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"There are bigger issues at stake!"


With, of course, a keen emphasis on what lessons can be derived from this critical moment in a time (relatively not too long ago) that was a major turning point for not just America and China (as well as Taiwan), but the broader international community at large.



The 1960s were the era in which the post-WWII multilateral institutions (e.g. the United Nations, NATO, etc...) were still burgeoning and facing multiple crises that spanned the vast length and width of the entire globe and the many fledging nations contained within it. One of these that is still of particular salience to the present (2023) was the dispute between the ROC (Republic of China) and PRC (People's Republic of China) over who the UN (and the broader international community) should ultimately recognize and allow to hold the representative seat for "China" within its organization, and by extension which of the two so-called Chinas would get to enjoy the associated diplomatic privileges that being a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) provides.


Join Tom in this segment as he dives into the larger-than-life figures of both U.S. President John F. Kennedy and Chinese Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek. Learn more about how these particular two world leaders in the 1960s dealt with the still as of yet unanswered "Taiwan Question."



Keep in mind, that this segment is by no means conclusive, but it still can serve as a solid gateway into future discussions on this and other fascinating, interrelated subjects such as the original Cold War of the 20th century, especially the contemporary world is grappling with the potential of a second Cold War emerging in real-time.



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Video Edition: https://youtu.be/hl9FNVNG6qo



Source Highlighted: https://commons.und.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?filename=9&article=1002&context=oers&type=additional



Complimentary Article: (Coming Soon, probably post-move!)

Subscribe via YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/GetNuanced



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-TJC


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The (Israeli) High Court of Justice faced two unprecedented challenges to Basic Law amendments on Tuesday with a flurry of petitions against one of the most controversial laws in recent memory, the reasonableness bill, and the Attorney-General's Office sanctioning the striking down of the incapacitation law.

While it is not impossible that the High Court may rule to use judicial review, based on the justices' past decisions and the repercussions, it remains unlikely.

The question at hand is what happens when the unstoppable force of judicial review meets the immovable object of the basic laws. The court is being asked to dare answer this question by using judicial review to strike down a matter of a basic law for the first time.

Israel lacks a formal written constitution, but at the dawn of the state adopted a compromise in which the quasi-constitutional Basic Laws would be legislated and then at some indeterminate point assembled into a constitution. A problem with the basic laws is the ease with which they can be introduced and amended. They also originally had no status over regular legislation.

The High Court has the power of judicial review, the ability to strike down legislation that is in contradiction with the founding principles and constitutional framework. This power developed over the decades since the state's founding, but the current version coalesced during the 1990s during the "constitutional revolution."

The current iteration of judicial review was in large part inferred from the introduction of new Basic Laws, Human Dignity and Liberty, and Freedom of Occupation which had provisions that prevented other legislation from contradicting them. This allowed the court to strike down contradictory laws.

Petitioners on Monday and Tuesday challenged the judicial reform bill amending Basic Law: The Judiciary limiting the reasonableness standard, which allowed judicial review of government administrative decisions if they were deemed extremely beyond what a responsible authority would decide.

The petitions argued that the Knesset had violated its constitutional authority - the right to continue the constitutional process by introducing Basic Laws and amendments that established the general constitutional guidelines for the structure of the state and government, powers and relationships between the branches.

The reasonableness standard bill was passed to extract immediate political benefit and was about a specific tool rather than a general rule, petitioners contended.



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Recommended Resources:



Read the full article here: https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-752444



The article I originally used for the rather concerning quotation I cited: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/no-such-thing-as-palestinian-people-top-israeli-minister-says


(see: “There is no such thing as a Palestinian nation. There is no Palestinian history. There is no Palestinian language,” -Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich)


Read the other article I briefly mentioned: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/07/25/the-crisis-in-israel-is-just-getting-started-00108040



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Previously Mentioned Segments:



https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/getnuanced/episodes/Understanding-the-2021-IsraelPalestine-Crisis-and-its-Broader-Historic-Context-as-of-05-21-21-e1338lv



https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/getnuanced/episodes/A-Neo-Ottoman-Foreign-Policy-in-Erdogans-Turkey---Understanding-the-Geopolitical-Situation-in-Northern-Syria-and-Ukraine---JUNE-2022-e1jvtr0/a-a8454hl



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CONNECT:

Official Website: http://www.GetNuanced.com/
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Show Twitter | http://twitter.com/GetNuanced
Main Twitter | http://twitter.com/TJCMN
Show Instagram | http://instagram.com/GetNuanced
Main Instagram | http://instagram.com/TJC
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—Tom


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With the potential threat of (presumably tactical) nuclear weapons being used in anger for the first time since the Second World War looming on the horizon and amidst the recent territorial annexations of the four Ukrainian regions of Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk via a "totally legit" (at least according to President Vladimir Putin of the Russian Federation and his Ukrainian political collaborators) referendum, today I provide my perspective on the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine as of early October 2022 (with the obvious caveat that things are ever-changing in terms of the approximate state of play on the ground, which will of course require further elaboration future video and podcast episodes).

In particular, I delve deep into the fascinating, often overlooked historical context of how modern Russia developed its particular spiritual and political identity as well as how Moscow and its various policymakers seek to rewrite what it perceives as the historical errors that had led to the disintegration at the end of the 20th century of the Soviet Union (USSR) and the reduction of its territorial borders into what they were prior to Putin's quest to resurrect the Russian Empire and establish in the process his own place in world history as the modern version of Czar / Emperor Peter the Great.

This particular segment was made on the fly and off the cuff, and covers a whole slew of miscellaneous topics that contextualize both the Byzantine nature of Russia's imperial past as well as the present juncture in which the Kremlin has taken the notion of being a besieged fortress in the face of Western opposition to the brink of a crisis with the risk of further military escalation in the form of a nuclear strike that could have grave implications for not just the ongoing conflict between Kyiv (and by extension Washington and NATO via proxy) and Moscow, but humanity as a collective species. Join me in this episode to learn more!



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Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/TPFCMear8Hk



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Articles Referenced in the Podcast:



https://greekreporter.com/2022/09/22/byzantine-history-putin-russian-empire/

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181



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Interactive Map of the Ongoing Conflict: https://liveuamap.com/



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Recommendations from the Show:



"RUSSIA-UKRAINE | A Real Nuclear Threat?" via Prof. James Ker-Lindsay | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mz2YcYqU7sc&t=295s

"Crimea is running out of water" via CaspianReport | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aqq8clIceys



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Previous Segments Mentioned:



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8KXpA6aqxt0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFiR2VX6PKQ&t=1064s

https://anchor.fm/getnuanced/episodes/A-Trip-to-Taipei-An-Overview--Strategic-Analysis-of-U-S--House-Speaker-Nancy-Pelosis-Anticipated-Visit-to-Taiwan-and-the-Ongoing-Cross-Strait-Crisis-with-Xi-Jinpings-China--JULY-2022-EDITION-e1lq5g6

https://anchor.fm/getnuanced/episodes/A-Neo-Ottoman-Foreign-Policy-in-Erdogans-Turkey---Understanding-the-Geopolitical-Situation-in-Northern-Syria-and-Ukraine---JUNE-2022-e1jvtr0/a-a50c7tb



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CONNECT:



Main YouTube | http://youtube.com/GetNuanced

Tech Channel | http://youtube.com/TJCMN

Show Twitter | http://twitter.com/GetNuanced

Main Twitter | http://twitter.com/TJCMN

Show Instagram | http://instagram.com/GetNuanced

Main Instagram | http://instagram.com/TJC



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#GetNuanced with TJC


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To say that the current situation between Washington, Beijing, and Taipei is a crisis of world-changing significance would be a massive understatement.

With the Cross-Strait relationship between the Republic of China on Taiwan (ROC) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) being at one of its worst phases since the immediate era following the 1949 conclusion (at least when it comes to the end of military conflict on the Chinese Mainland) of the Civil War between the forces of the Kuomintang (KMT, lit: “Chinese Nationalist Party”) and the Communist Party of China (CCP), respectively.

The recent announcement of an impending, formal diplomatic envoy headed by none other than Nancy Pelosi, the current Speaker of the United States House of Representatives has sparked a blazing hot rhetorical response from Beijing and its so-called “Wolf Warrior” diplomats with fears from the Biden Administration and Policymakers from the Pentagon that this could potentially manifest in the PLA Air Force shadowing and then literally shooting down the aircraft that would be transporting Speaker Pelosi, among other high-ranking (and yet to be announced) American politicians.

In this segment today, I attempt to provide a comprehensive overview of the tensions as they have developed through the aforementioned war of words and also my personal geostrategic analysis of what is certainly a situation of critical importance if one is someone such as myself with an interest in foreign policy and international relations.

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Articles Read & Referenced in the Podcast:

“Biden and China’s Xi to speak during tense Taiwan standoff” - via the Washington Post | https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/28/china-biden-xi-call-nancy-pelosi-taiwan/

“EXPLAINER: Why is a Pelosi visit to Taiwan causing tension?” - via the Associated Press | https://apnews.com/article/china-pelosi-taiwan-visit-explainer-fd940b681b9a4165d2ace569bbfe33fb

“How Eisenhower Saved Taiwan” - via The Diplomat | https://thediplomat.com/2015/07/how-eisenhower-saved-taiwan/

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Previous Video Segments I Produced on the Taiwan Question:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8KXpA6aqxt0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFiR2VX6PKQ&t=1064s

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***Expanded Description Coming Soon!***

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CONNECT:

Main YouTube | http://youtube.com/GetNuanced

Tech Channel | http://youtube.com/TJCMN

Show Twitter | http://twitter.com/GetNuanced

Main Twitter | http://twitter.com/TJCMN

Show Instagram | http://instagram.com/GetNuanced

Main Instagram | http://instagram.com/TJC

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#GetNuanced with TJC


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An improved description will be implemented very soon!



Modern Türkiye (Republic of Turkey) and the Resumption of History | Understanding Erdogan's Neo-Ottoman Foreign Policy in Syria and Ukraine



Resources Referenced:



YT Video: [coming soon!]



EXPLAINER: What is behind Turkey’s Syria incursion threats? | https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-islamic-state-group-politics-middle-east-a1293989c40712ae4a789311f88bcb45



https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/1/turkey-expands-military-operation-in-northern-syria

https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/05/erdogans-plan-return-syrian-refugees-unlikely-succeed



Syrian Civil War Interactive Map: https://syria.liveuamap.com/



YouTube Videos:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbC0Ct2E2h0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmpKP1qjSSk






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